政策扶持、资源错配与产能过剩

发布时间：2017-12-28 16:02

本文关键词：政策扶持、资源错配与产能过剩　出处：《清华大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文研究了2001至2013年中国对某些行业的政策扶持,以及与之相关的资源错配和产能过剩问题。中国长期以来倾向于支持某些特定行业,始于2008年底的“4万亿”计划是逆周期政策干预最典型的一个案例。中国的各个行业可以分成两个部门,一个部门符合中央政府或者地方政府的多元发展目标,因而受到较多的政策扶持和补贴,由于资源总量有限,另一个部门受到的扶持就比较少。本文通过一个理论模型提出,在金融危机之前政策扶持对这批行业发展有利,中央及地方政府也能够从行业优先发展中获益,扶持未必加重资源错配。但金融危机带来的市场环境恶化,使行业与政府之间存在利益目标不一致的可能,政府基于自身利益最大化的理性决策可能对行业发展不利,进而加剧资源错配。本文首先研究了2001-2013年行业层面的工业企业数据。实证结果表明,资源错配给工业产出带来了大约11%的缺口。2008-2009年间,政策扶持使被扶持行业整体比最优配置水平下的资本存量高出23.1%,总额大约1.46万亿元。金融危机与政策扶持的交互作用加剧了资源错配。行业层面的回归分析表明,受扶持行业日益严重的资源配置扭曲不仅仅是经济周期的自然表现,政策扶持在其中的作用至关重要。“4万亿”在2009-2010年拉动了制造业的需求,短期内改善了各行业,尤其是受扶持行业的盈利。但这种拉动同时使得受扶持行业的产能进一步增长,在“4万亿”作用消退之后,产能过剩逐渐成为阻碍受扶持行业盈利增长的主要原因。资源错配不仅来自政策直接扶持,还来自间接的扶持。政府长期以来的基建投资倾向,增大了对受扶持行业的需求。而当基建投资回报率下降后,受扶持行业的利润下降就更为严重,超过了经济周期的自然下降。微观层面的上市企业分析进一步验证了上述结论。对上市企业数据的实证检验结果表明,金融危机前,政策扶持有利于企业的盈利上升,2001-2007年间,政策扶持使得受扶持企业资产回报率上升1%,金融危机之后政策扶持的效果则相反,拉低企业资产回报率的幅度分别为1.7%(2008-2009)和2.0%(2010-2013)。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the policy support for some industries in China from 2001 to 2013, and the problem of mismatching of resources and overcapacity. China has long been inclined to support certain industries, and the "4 trillion" program, which began at the end of 2008, is the most typical case of counter cyclical policy intervention. All sectors of China can be divided into two sectors. One sector is in line with the multiple development goals of the central government or local governments. Therefore, they are subject to more policy support and subsidies. Due to the limited total resources, the other sector is less supported. Based on a theoretical model, this paper suggests that before the financial crisis, policy support is beneficial to the development of these industries. Central and local governments can also benefit from the priority development of industries, and support does not necessarily aggravate resource mismatches. But the deterioration of the market environment caused by the financial crisis makes the industry and the government have different interests. The rational decision-making based on the maximization of their interests may be unfavorable for the development of the industry, and further exacerbate the resource mismatch. This paper first studies the industrial enterprise data at the 2001-2013 year industry level. The empirical results show that the misallocation of resources has brought about 11% of the gap in industrial output. In the past 2008-2009 years, policy support made the overall capital stock of the supported industry 23.1% higher than the optimal allocation level, with a total of about 1 trillion and 460 billion yuan. The interaction of financial crisis and policy support aggravates the mismatch of resources. The regression analysis at the industry level shows that the increasingly serious resource allocation distortion in the supporting industry is not only the natural manifestation of the business cycle, but also the role of policy support in it. "4 trillion" has led to the demand for manufacturing in the 2009-2010 year, and in the short term it has improved the profits of all industries, especially the support industry. But this pull also increases the capacity of the supporting industries further. After the "4 trillion" effect has subsided, overcapacity has gradually become the main reason that hinders the growth of the profit growth of the support industry. The mismatch of resources is not only from direct policy support, but also from indirect support. The government's long-term investment tendency in infrastructure has increased demand for supported industries. When the rate of return on investment in infrastructure falls, the profit of the support industry is more serious, more than the natural decline in the economic cycle. On the micro level, the analysis of listed companies further verified the above conclusions. The empirical results of listed companies data show that before the financial crisis, policy support is conducive to enterprise's profit rose, 2001-2007 years, policy support makes the support enterprise assets increased by 1% after the financial crisis, the policy support of the opposite effect, lower corporate assets return rate were 1.7% and 2% (2008-2009) (2010-2013).
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F424;F406.7

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