天然气终端市场定价模型与政策模拟研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 14:56

本文选题：天然气　切入点：分时定价　出处：《中国地质大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：能源作为人类活动的物质基础,已成为经济发展与科技进步的重要驱动力量。在当前的低碳经济环境下,天然气因其清洁环保、纯净高效及用途广泛的属性,在世界范围内得到了普遍的重视,目前已成为世界增长最快的能源之一。然而我国“富煤、贫油、少气”的资源禀赋以及不健全的定价制度使得天然气供需矛盾日益突出,“气荒”频现。为缓解“气荒”,促进天然气产业健康发展,国家发改委正全面推行天然气价格改革,以发挥价格在资源配置中的基础作用。本文在天然气价格改革背景下,结合管理科学和规制经济学的最新研究成果,运用对比分析与仿真模拟相结合的研究方法,分析当前中国的天然气供需格局和定价机制面临的挑战,提出天然气终端市场定价模型,并采用多主体仿真方法对定价政策进行仿真模拟,为中国天然气终端市场价格改革提供试验数据与政策参考。本文的主要研究内容和创新如下：第一,分析天然气供需格局和定价机制存在的弊端,提出了天然气终端市场定价问题。从中国天然气各区域的生产和消费形势,分析中国天然气供需重心的迁移路径及各个区域贡献度,明确当前中国天然气供需格局；从国外天然气定价方式出发,分析天然气价格改革方向,明确国内天然气定价机制的弊端；从天然气供需格局和价格改革方向,提出天然气终端市场中工业用户分时定价和居民用户阶梯定价问题。第二,梳理天然气需求价格弹性的估计方法和研究结果,估计天然气终端市场用户的需求价格弹性。从需求价格弹性的定义出发,分析了天然气需求价格弹性估计的主流方法,并得到天然气长期需求价格弹性与短期价格弹性关系。然后,对世界范围内有关天然气工业用户和居民用户的天然气需求价格弹性进行详细的总结,根据已有的研究成果和中国天然气终端市场需求特点,估计天然气终端市场中工业用户和居民用户的需求价格弹性,为天然气工业用户分时定价和居民用户阶梯定价提供数据。第三,分析天然气管网负荷特征及工业用户需求特点,建立天然气工业用户分时定价系统,并对分时定价政策进行仿真模拟,为工业用户分时定价提供实验数据。从天然气管网负荷特征及工业用户需求特点出发,采用multi-agent建模与仿真理论,设计了工业用户分时定价系统,明确了系统中相关利益主体及作用关系；采用leader-follower博弈模型,建立了工业用户分时定价优化模型,得到工业用户的最优分时定价策略及需求响应方式；以天然气终端市场中工业用户为例,采用峰谷分时定价和实时定价两种策略,对工业用户分时定价进行模拟仿真研究。结果表明,对工业用户实施分时定价或实时定价策略,不仅能够起到削峰填谷作用,促使天然气管网平稳运行,还可以促使工业用户增强需求管理,提高市场效率和社会总体福利。第四,评估天然气居民用气阶梯定价方案,建立天然气居民用户阶梯定价仿真系统,为居民天然气阶梯定价提供政策参考。从居民用户消费特征及阶梯气价的目标出发,采用multi-agent建模与仿真理论,设计了居民用户阶梯定价系统,确定了居民用气阶梯定价方案与系统目标；分析居民用户需求行为,从弹性效应、从众效应和聚集效应,构建了居民用户的阶梯价格综合需求响应模型,并从消费者剩余,运营商效用和社会公平性等方面,设计了阶梯定价实施效果的评价指标；以天然气终端市场中居民用户为例,对不同阶梯定价政策进行模拟仿真分析,根据阶梯定价实施效果,选出最优的阶梯定价方案。结果表明,阶梯定价不仅能缓解交叉补贴,遏制浪费,还具有改善收入分配和提高社会公平的效果。第五,明确天然气终端市场价格改革的方向、原则和路径,为天然气价格市场化改革提供政策参考。从国际天然气市场的发展历程,天然气定价机制的改革方向,以及中国天然气终端市场的发展现状,指出中国天然气终端市场价格改革要依据“试点先行、分层实施、逐步推进、稳定有效”的改革思路,采取“制度建设、市场培育、价格改革、交易中心”的实施路径。在天然气价格改革的总体布局下,要坚持制度建设为基础,市场培育为前提,价格改革为核心,交易中心为重点的“四位一体”改革方向,建立一个供需均衡、竞争有序、充满活力的天然气市场。
[Abstract]:Energy is the material basis of human activities, has become an important driving force of economic development and the progress of science and technology. In the low carbon economy in the current environment of natural gas, because of its clean, pure, and wide use attributes, widespread attention in the world, now has become one of the world's fastest growing energy. But China's "rich coal, poor oil, less gas" resource endowment and the imperfect pricing system which makes the natural gas supply and demand have become increasingly prominent, gas shortage are frequent. In order to alleviate the gas shortage, and promote the healthy development of natural gas industry, the National Development and Reform Commission is the full implementation of the reform of natural gas prices, in order to play the foundation the role of price in resource allocation. Based on the background of natural gas price reform, combined with the latest research achievements of management science and economics of regulation, research by means of comparative analysis and Simulation of combination of points With analysis of the current China natural gas supply and demand pattern and pricing mechanism of challenge, proposes a pricing model of natural gas terminal market, and using multi agent simulation method to simulate the pricing policy, to provide test data and policy reference for natural gas terminal market price reform Chinese. The main research content and innovation are as follows: first, analysis of malpractice the existence of gas supply and demand pattern and pricing mechanism, the pricing of natural gas terminal market. China from natural gas regional production and consumption situation, analysis center of natural gas supply and demand China migration path and the regional contribution, clear the current Chinese natural gas supply and demand pattern; from the point of view of foreign natural gas pricing reform, analysis the direction of natural gas prices, the domestic problems of natural gas pricing mechanism; from the natural gas supply and demand pattern and direction of natural gas price reform, put forward The terminal market in industrial users when pricing and residential users ladder pricing problem. Second estimation methods combing the natural gas price elasticity of demand and the results of the study, the estimated price elasticity of demand of natural gas terminal market users. Starting from the definition of the price elasticity of demand, analyzes the natural gas demand price elasticity of the mainstream estimation method, and get the the relationship between long-term gas price elasticity of demand and price elasticity of short-term. Then, the natural gas price elasticity of demand of the world within the scope of the natural gas industry users and residential users to summarize, according to the existing research results and characteristics of China natural gas terminal market demand, estimated the price elasticity of demand of natural gas terminal market in industrial users and residents for users, industrial users of natural gas pricing and time-sharing residents ladder pricing data. Third, analysis of natural gas pipeline network load characteristics And industrial users demand characteristics, the establishment of natural gas industry user time-sharing pricing system, and on the pricing policy simulation, provide experimental data for industrial users when pricing. Starting from the natural gas pipeline network load characteristics and industrial characteristics of user's demand, using multi-agent to build theoretical model and simulation, the design of industrial users pricing system clearly, the main stakeholders in the system and the role of the relationship; using the leader-follower game model, establish industrial user time-sharing pricing optimization model, get the optimal industrial users when pricing strategy and demand response; industrial users of natural gas terminal market as an example, using tou pricing and pricing of two kinds of real time strategy, to industrial users time pricing are simulated. The results show that, for industrial users to implement time-sharing real-time pricing or pricing strategy, not only to cut The peak to the valley, the natural gas pipeline network running smoothly, but also can promote the industrial users to enhance demand management, improve market efficiency and overall social welfare. Fourth, assessment of natural gas residents stepped gas pricing scheme, the establishment of residential users of natural gas pricing ladder simulation system, to provide policy reference for residential natural gas pricing. Starting from the residents ladder consumer characteristics and gas price ladder, using multi-agent modeling and simulation theory, design the residents ladder pricing system, the stepped gas pricing scheme and system goal residents; demand analysis of residential users, from the elastic effect, conformity effect and aggregation effect, to build a comprehensive demand price ladder residents response model and, from the consumer surplus, operators of utility and social fairness, and designs the evaluation index effect on natural gas pricing ladder; Residents of the user terminal market as an example, the simulation analysis of the different pricing policy, the implementation effect according to the ladder pricing, selected ladder pricing optimal scheme. The results show that the ladder pricing can not only reduce cross subsidies, to curb waste, but also improve the income distribution and improve social fairness effect. Fifth, clear direction of the terminal market the natural gas price reform, principle and path, to provide policy reference for the price of natural gas market reform. From the development of natural gas in the international market, the direction of the reform of the pricing mechanism of natural gas, and natural gas in the terminal market development present situation, pointed out that the Chinese natural gas terminal market price reform according to the "pilot, layered the implementation of reform step by step, stable and effective", "take the system construction, market cultivation, price reform, the implementation of the path trading center. The price of natural gas Under the overall layout of the reform, we must adhere to the system construction as the foundation, market cultivation as the premise, price reform as the core and trading center as the focus of the "four in one" reform direction, and establish a natural gas market with balanced supply and demand, competitive, orderly and dynamic.

【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.22

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