潍坊西能LNG加气站项目经济评价研究
发布时间：2019-07-09 10:28
【摘要】：世界各地的能源需求正在不断增加,预计将保持每年1.2%的平均增长率。由于化石燃料资源的庞大储量和可利用性,可以预见,它们将继续在世界能源经济中扮演重要角色。目前,化石能源提供世界上85%的商业能源需求。在我国,几乎90%的电力需求来自于煤炭发电,本世纪的能源需求将增长一倍以上,将达到美国需求的1.3倍。目前,汽车消耗了一半以上的石油需求,这一需求预计将大幅增长。随着发展中国家经济的增长和繁荣,发达国家的化石燃料需求预计将基本持平于发展中国家,而发展中国家的私人车辆将急剧增加。与此同时,尽管核能和可再生能源的利用率在逐年提高,但全球二氧化碳排放量预计将上升接近现在水平的30%。因此,为了满足日益增长的能源需求,并减少大气中的二氧化碳含量,寻找替代燃料以取代如柴油和汽油这样的碳氢化合物燃料,导致产生了大量的不同的燃料,但其中很少可以大规模商业开发。天然气是其中一种广泛使用且可再生的能源(通过沼气或生物甲烷),相比其他传统和替代燃料产生较少的温室气体排放量。天然气可以通过多种方式商用,有压缩天然气(CNG),液化天然气(LNG)甚至掺氢。使用天然气汽车(天然气汽车)也有利于能源安全和能源多样性。因此,由于其固有的环境友好性、更高的效率和更低的成本,天然气已成为首选燃料。在天然气长距离输送方面,液化天然气特别适合管道输送。与所有的天然气一样,液化天然气比煤和石油更清洁,并且提供了能源供应多样化的机会。因此,在天然气市场,液化天然气的使用已经得到了全球的认可。本文在前人的研究基础之上,结合行业和企业实际情况,构建了一套LNG加气站经济评价指标体系,并且采用了灰度预测方法,对未来LNG需求量做了预测,结合预测结果对潍坊西能LNG加气站未来运营效果进行综合评价。本文的大致内容为：本文以潍坊西能LNG加气站的项目经济评价为研究对象,构建潍坊西能LNG加气站经济评价指标体系,对西能LNG加气站投资风险进行评价,并提出相应的风险防范与应对措施,具有一定理论和现实意义。本文在对西能LNG加气站项目进行经济评价前,根据项目所在地以及周围的经济情况和竞争环境,结合LNG加气站项目自身的特点,对该区域以天然气为燃料的汽车数量进行了预测,即对该项目的未来市场需求进行了研究,结论表明,LNG未来的需要量是巨大并持续增长的。并以此为前提,在对经济评价相关理论及文献研究归纳的基础上,依据项目经济评价指标选取的原则以及项目本身的特点,选取了用于西能LNG加气站项目财务评价和国民经济评价的指标,并构建了适用性较强的指标评价体系,基于该体系,对该项目的投资情况和经济效益情况进行了分析,结果显示,该项目在财务评价方面,具有较强的盈利能力和抗风险能力,并且对项目经济效益影响最大的因素是天然气的销售价格,其次为原材料价格,在国民经济评价方面,该项目具有可观的经济效益,对项目所在地寿光市的天然气行业发展具有一定促进作用,并可为当地带来新的就业机会,促进人们生活水平的改善和提高,国民经济效益明显。最后,本文根据西能LNG加气站项目的经济评价结果,对该项目的投资决策及运营提出了相关建议及展望。全文的创新在于：在内容上,与国内多数研究聚焦在加气站选址、布局方面不同,本文将焦点放在了加气站的经济评价上。在方法方面,本文在借鉴前人预测方法的基础上,结合项目实际的情况,选用了灰度预测模型,将该模型创新地应用在对该项目未来市场的研究当中。对项目进行经济评价的过程中,结合项目的实际情况进行的指标选取,并建立了适用于所研究项目的评价指标体系：而且,本文创新地将国民经济评价引入其中,使评价更全面更具说服力,在评价方法上也实现了一定程度上的创新。
[Abstract]:Energy demand in the world is growing and it is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 1.2 per cent per year. Due to the huge reserves and availability of fossil fuel resources, it is foreseen that they will continue to play an important role in the world energy economy. At present, fossil energy provides 85 per cent of the world's commercial energy needs. In our country, almost 90 per cent of the electricity demand comes from coal generation, and the energy demand in this century will be more than doubled to 1.3 times the US demand. At present, cars consume more than half of the oil demand, which is expected to grow significantly. With the growth and prosperity of the economies of developing countries, the demand for fossil fuels in developed countries is expected to be substantially flat in developing countries, while private vehicles in developing countries will increase dramatically. At the same time, while the utilization of nuclear and renewable energy is increasing year by year, global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise close to 30 per cent of the current level. Thus, in order to meet the increasing demand for energy and to reduce the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere, alternative fuels are sought to replace hydrocarbon fuels such as diesel and gasoline, resulting in a large number of different fuels, but few of which can be developed in large scale. Natural gas is one of the widely used and renewable energy sources (through biogas or biomethane), resulting in less greenhouse gas emissions than other conventional and alternative fuels. Natural gas may be commercially available in a variety of ways, with compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), or even hydrogen. The use of natural gas vehicles (natural gas vehicles) is also conducive to energy security and energy diversity. As a result, natural gas has become the preferred fuel due to its inherent environmental friendliness, higher efficiency and lower cost. In that long-distance transportation of natural gas, the liquefied natural gas is particularly suitable for pipeline transportation. Like all natural gas, liquefied natural gas is cleaner than coal and oil and offers a chance to diversify energy supplies. Therefore, in the natural gas market, the use of liquefied natural gas has been recognized globally. On the basis of the previous research, combining with the actual situation of the industry and the enterprise, a set of economic evaluation index system of the LNG filling station is constructed, and the grey prediction method is adopted to forecast the future LNG demand. Combined with the prediction results, the future operation effect of the Xibe LNG (LNG) station is comprehensively evaluated. The main contents of this paper are as follows: this paper, based on the economic evaluation of the project of the West-energy LNG (LNG) station, is to build the economic evaluation index system of the West-energy LNG (LNG) station, to evaluate the investment risk of the West-energy LNG (LNG) station, and to put forward the corresponding measures of risk prevention and response. And has certain theoretical and practical significance. Based on the project location and the surrounding economic situation and the competitive environment, this paper forecasts the quantity of the car with natural gas as the fuel, according to the project location and the surrounding economic situation and the competitive environment. That is, the future market demand of the project is studied, and the conclusion is that the future demand of LNG is huge and continuous. On the basis of this, on the basis of the relevant theory of economic evaluation and the study of the literature, the paper selects the indicators for the financial evaluation and national economic evaluation of the LNG gas-filling station in the west, according to the principle of the selection of the economic evaluation index of the project and the characteristics of the project. Based on the system, the investment and economic benefit of the project are analyzed. The results show that the project has strong profitability and anti-risk ability in the aspects of financial evaluation. and the most important factor for the economic benefit of the project is the selling price of the natural gas, the second is the raw material price, and in the aspect of national economic evaluation, the project has a considerable economic benefit, and has a certain promoting effect on the development of the natural gas industry in Shouguang City, And can bring new employment opportunities to the local area, and promote the improvement and the improvement of people's living standards, and the national economic benefit is obvious. Finally, based on the economic evaluation result of the LNG gas station project, this paper puts forward some suggestions and prospects for the investment decision and operation of the project. The innovation of the full text is that, on the content, the focus on the site selection and layout of the filling station is different from most of the domestic research, and the focus is on the economic evaluation of the gas-filling station. In this paper, based on the previous prediction method, the grey prediction model is used in combination with the actual situation of the project, and the model is applied to the research of the future market of the project. In the process of economic evaluation of the project, the index selection is carried out in combination with the actual situation of the project, and the evaluation index system for the research project is set up. In addition, the national economic evaluation is introduced in this paper, so that the evaluation is more comprehensive and more convincing, Some degree of innovation is also achieved in the evaluation method.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F272.5;F426.22
本文编号：2512085
[Abstract]:Energy demand in the world is growing and it is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 1.2 per cent per year. Due to the huge reserves and availability of fossil fuel resources, it is foreseen that they will continue to play an important role in the world energy economy. At present, fossil energy provides 85 per cent of the world's commercial energy needs. In our country, almost 90 per cent of the electricity demand comes from coal generation, and the energy demand in this century will be more than doubled to 1.3 times the US demand. At present, cars consume more than half of the oil demand, which is expected to grow significantly. With the growth and prosperity of the economies of developing countries, the demand for fossil fuels in developed countries is expected to be substantially flat in developing countries, while private vehicles in developing countries will increase dramatically. At the same time, while the utilization of nuclear and renewable energy is increasing year by year, global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise close to 30 per cent of the current level. Thus, in order to meet the increasing demand for energy and to reduce the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere, alternative fuels are sought to replace hydrocarbon fuels such as diesel and gasoline, resulting in a large number of different fuels, but few of which can be developed in large scale. Natural gas is one of the widely used and renewable energy sources (through biogas or biomethane), resulting in less greenhouse gas emissions than other conventional and alternative fuels. Natural gas may be commercially available in a variety of ways, with compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), or even hydrogen. The use of natural gas vehicles (natural gas vehicles) is also conducive to energy security and energy diversity. As a result, natural gas has become the preferred fuel due to its inherent environmental friendliness, higher efficiency and lower cost. In that long-distance transportation of natural gas, the liquefied natural gas is particularly suitable for pipeline transportation. Like all natural gas, liquefied natural gas is cleaner than coal and oil and offers a chance to diversify energy supplies. Therefore, in the natural gas market, the use of liquefied natural gas has been recognized globally. On the basis of the previous research, combining with the actual situation of the industry and the enterprise, a set of economic evaluation index system of the LNG filling station is constructed, and the grey prediction method is adopted to forecast the future LNG demand. Combined with the prediction results, the future operation effect of the Xibe LNG (LNG) station is comprehensively evaluated. The main contents of this paper are as follows: this paper, based on the economic evaluation of the project of the West-energy LNG (LNG) station, is to build the economic evaluation index system of the West-energy LNG (LNG) station, to evaluate the investment risk of the West-energy LNG (LNG) station, and to put forward the corresponding measures of risk prevention and response. And has certain theoretical and practical significance. Based on the project location and the surrounding economic situation and the competitive environment, this paper forecasts the quantity of the car with natural gas as the fuel, according to the project location and the surrounding economic situation and the competitive environment. That is, the future market demand of the project is studied, and the conclusion is that the future demand of LNG is huge and continuous. On the basis of this, on the basis of the relevant theory of economic evaluation and the study of the literature, the paper selects the indicators for the financial evaluation and national economic evaluation of the LNG gas-filling station in the west, according to the principle of the selection of the economic evaluation index of the project and the characteristics of the project. Based on the system, the investment and economic benefit of the project are analyzed. The results show that the project has strong profitability and anti-risk ability in the aspects of financial evaluation. and the most important factor for the economic benefit of the project is the selling price of the natural gas, the second is the raw material price, and in the aspect of national economic evaluation, the project has a considerable economic benefit, and has a certain promoting effect on the development of the natural gas industry in Shouguang City, And can bring new employment opportunities to the local area, and promote the improvement and the improvement of people's living standards, and the national economic benefit is obvious. Finally, based on the economic evaluation result of the LNG gas station project, this paper puts forward some suggestions and prospects for the investment decision and operation of the project. The innovation of the full text is that, on the content, the focus on the site selection and layout of the filling station is different from most of the domestic research, and the focus is on the economic evaluation of the gas-filling station. In this paper, based on the previous prediction method, the grey prediction model is used in combination with the actual situation of the project, and the model is applied to the research of the future market of the project. In the process of economic evaluation of the project, the index selection is carried out in combination with the actual situation of the project, and the evaluation index system for the research project is set up. In addition, the national economic evaluation is introduced in this paper, so that the evaluation is more comprehensive and more convincing, Some degree of innovation is also achieved in the evaluation method.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F272.5;F426.22
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相关期刊论文 前3条
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