山东省耕地生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断

发布时间：2018-01-20 22:59

本文关键词： 耕地生态安全评价 PSR 变权模型 TOPSIS 障碍度诊断山东省　出处：《山东农业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：耕地是土地的精华,是农业生产中最基本的生产材料。随着人类的社会经济活动和耕地资源过度利用,耕地生态环境遭到破坏,耕地生态安全问题日愈严重。因此开展区域耕地生态安全评价研究显得非常必要。本文在人地关系理论、可持续利用理论、系统科学理论和生态系统平衡理论等相关理论基础上,选取山东省为研究区,根据区域耕地生态安全现状与特点,基于PSR模型,从压力、状态、响应三个方面选取20项具体指标构建区域耕地生态安全评价指标体系;采用层次分析法与熵值法相结合计算各指标静态权重,运用变权TOPSIS评价模型对2006-2015年区域耕地生态安全水平进行了定量分析评价,探讨区域耕地生态安全状况在不同惩罚系数下评价结果的变化,认为当惩罚系数k=0.5评价结果最理想;在此基础上进行综合评价和子系统层面的评价分析。后引入障碍度诊断模型寻找制约区域耕地生态安全水平的主要障碍因子,在指标层和子系统层进行了分析讨论。针对以上分析结果提出相应对策措施。主要结论如下:(1)2006-2015年限内,山东省耕地生态安全指数C_i~*由大到小依次为:C_2013~*(0.7087)、C_2012~*(0.7012)、C_2011~*(0.6998)、C_2015~*(0.6874)、C_2010~*(0.6805)、C_2014~*(0.6584)、C_2009~*(0.6514)、C_2008~*(0.6122)、C_2007~*(0.5766)、C_2006~*(0.5260)。其中,2006年山东省耕地生态安全等级处于安全敏感级(II),2007-2008年处于临界安全级(III),2009-2015年处于基本安全极(IV),耕地生态安全水平总体呈上升态势。然而,山东省耕地生态安全形势还不容乐观,耕地生态安全指数还不稳定,且近两年出现了下降趋势,整体介于较不安全(II)到基本安全状态(IV)之间,有较大上升空间;总结的说,耕地生态安全水平提升有限,整体未达到安全级别(V),没有本质性的好转。(2)从各子系统来看,山东省耕地生态安全的压力子系统与响应子系统整体上波动上升,状态子系统有明显的波动。具体分析,2006年只有响应子系统处于安全敏感级(II),其余两个子系统均处于临界安全级(III),到2015年仅有压力子系统与响应子系统上升到基本安全级(IV),状态子系统则处于临界安全级(III),整体上有明显的下降趋势。然而,压力子系统和响应子系统近年来已经进入基本安全级(IV),并且整体波动上升。(3)依据障碍度诊断结果,制约山东省耕地生态安全水平的主要障碍因子是:环保投资占GDP比重、人均水资源占有量、森林覆盖率、农村人均纯收入、单位耕地农业机械动力、水土协调度、水土流失治理面积等,其中环保投资占GDP比重是十年内的首要障碍因子。子系统层面,响应子系统的障碍度在整体上最高且呈现波动下降,2015年为36.96%;状态子系统的障碍度次之且呈现波动上升,2015年为41.74%;压力子系统的障碍度最小且波动下降,2015年为21.30%。对于目前山东省面临的主要耕地生态安全问题,可从保护水资源、加大环保投入、提高植被覆盖率、降低耕地负荷、增加土地投入等角度进行治理。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land is the essence, is the most basic production material in agricultural production. With the social and economic activities and excessive utilization of cultivated land resources, cultivated land ecological environment destruction, land ecological security problems increasingly serious. So the research on the ecological security evaluation of cultivated land area is very necessary. In this paper, the theory of human land relationship, sustainable utilization in theory, the system theory and the balance of the ecological system theory on the basis of Shandong province were selected as the study area, according to the current situation and characteristics of regional land ecological security, based on the PSR model, from the pressure, state, response from three aspects of 20 specific indicators to construct the evaluation index system of regional ecological security of cultivated land; the index of static calculation weight using AHP and entropy method combined with variable weight TOPSIS evaluation model for the quantitative analysis of regional land ecological security level 2006-2015 Study on the change of evaluation, the security situation of regional land ecological evaluation results in different penalty coefficients, that when the penalty coefficient k=0.5 evaluation results of the ideal; analysis and evaluation on the basis of comprehensive evaluation and subsystem level. After the introduction of obstaclesdiagnosis model to find the main obstacle factors restricting the area of cultivated land ecological security level, in the index layer and the subsystem layer are analyzed and discussed. Based on the above analysis results and put forward the corresponding countermeasures. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) 2006-2015 years, the cultivated land in Shandong Province ecological security index of C_i~* in descending order: C_2013~* (0.7087), C_2012~* (0.7012), C_2011~* (0.6998), C_2015~* (0.6874), C_2010~* (0.6805), C_2014~* (0.6584), C_2009~* (0.6514), C_2008~* (0.6122), C_2007~* (0.5766), C_2006~* (0.5260). Among them, the level of ecological security of cultivated land in Shandong province in 2006 in security sensitive level (II), 2007-2008 In the critical safety level (III), 2009-2015 years in the basic safety (IV), the level of ecological security of cultivated land increased. However, the Shandong province cultivated land ecological security situation is not optimistic, the ecological security index of arable land is not stable, and in recent years the decline trend, the overall is relatively unsafe (II) to basic safety state (IV), a large increase in space; summary, enhance the level of ecological security of cultivated land is limited, the overall did not reach the level of security (V), there is no essential improvement. (2) from the point of view of each subsystem, the pressure of cultivated land in Shandong Province ecological security subsystem and subsystem of the overall response on the increased volatility, state system has obvious fluctuation. Specific analysis, in 2006 only response subsystem in security sensitive level (II), the other two subsystems are at a critical level of security (III), by 2015 only pressure subsystem and subsystem response up to The basic security level (IV), the state of subsystem is at a critical level of security (III), a significant downward trend on the whole. However, the pressure response subsystem and subsystem in recent years has entered the basic security level (IV), and the overall volatility increased. (3) on the basis of obstaclesdiagnosis results, the main obstacle factor restricting Shandong province cultivated land ecological security level is: environmental protection investment accounted for the proportion of GDP, the per capita water resources, forest coverage rate, the per capita net income of rural land units, agricultural machinery power, water co scheduling, area of water and soil conservation, the environmental protection investment accounted for the proportion of GDP is the primary obstacle factor within ten years. The system level, the subsystem responses in the highest overall and obstacle degree fluctuated downward, in 2015 36.96%; the state system obstacle degree and fluctuated upward, to 41.74% in 2015; the pressure subsystem and obstacle degree minimum fluctuation decreased 2 015 years for 21.30%., for the current main farmland ecological security problems in Shandong Province, we can manage from the perspective of protecting water resources, increasing input in environmental protection, increasing vegetation coverage, reducing cultivated land load and increasing land investment.

【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.211

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