漳州市森林火灾时空分布及火险区划

发布时间：2018-02-11 14:11

  本文关键词： 森林火灾 时空分布 火险区划　出处：《福建农林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文基于漳州市2000年至2010年火点数据,气候数据,植被数据、地形数据,以及人口和社会经济数据,利用二项逻辑斯蒂回归模型、SPSS19.0和ArcGIS10.2,对漳州市森林火灾时空分布格局进行了研究,最终形成了漳州市火险区划图。本论文主要研究结论如下:(1)根据对漳州市1991年至2013年森林火灾的时间变化规律进行分析,漳州市森林火灾年际发生次数、受害森林面积和林火损失的年际变化波动比较大,但是总的趋势是在逐年减少。秋、冬两季应是漳州市森林防火的重点时期,这与漳州市实际情况吻合。(2)根据对漳州市1991年至2013年森林火灾的空间变化规律进行分析,结果表明,1991年至2013年期间,漳州市森林火灾的发生次数主要集中于南靖县、平和县、华安县三个地区。三地林火发生次数共459次占全市林火发生次数的58%,受害森林面积占漳州市总受害森林面积的73.8%。(3)根据对漳州市1991年至2013年火险季节进行分析,1991年至于2004年森林火险季节长度虽有波动但总体趋于平稳,2005年至2013年,森林火险季节长度有逐年缩短的趋势。(4)研究表明,高程(m),坡度,距离铁路的距离(km),距离公路的距离(km),基础设施,日最高地表气温(℃),日最低地表气温(℃),日降水量(mm),日照时数(hour),日最高气温(℃),日最小相对湿度(%)和GDP共12个因子对漳州市森林火灾的发生具有显著影响。模型的预测准确率达到74%。(5)漳州市中高火险地区面积较大且分布较广,对于该地区的森林防火工作应给予高度重视。
[Abstract]:This paper is based on the fire point data, climate data, vegetation data, topographic data, population and socio-economic data of Zhangzhou City from 2000 to 2010. The spatial and temporal distribution patterns of forest fires in Zhangzhou City were studied by using SPSS 19.0 and ArcGIS10.2, two logistic regression models. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) based on the analysis of the temporal variation of forest fires in Zhangzhou from 1991 to 2013, the annual occurrence times of forest fires in Zhangzhou are analyzed. The interannual variation of damaged forest area and forest fire loss fluctuates greatly, but the general trend is decreasing year by year. Autumn and winter should be the key periods of forest fire prevention in Zhangzhou. This coincides with the actual situation in Zhangzhou City. (2) based on the analysis of the spatial variation of forest fires in Zhangzhou City from 1991 to 2013, the results show that the frequency of forest fires in Zhangzhou City between 1991 and 1991 is mainly concentrated in Nanjing County and Pingghe County. The number of forest fires in three areas of Hua'an County is 459 times, accounting for 58 times of the total number of forest fires occurring in the city, and the affected forest area accounts for 73.8% of the total affected forest area in Zhangzhou City.) according to the analysis of the fire danger season from 1991 to 2013 in Zhangzhou City, 1991. As for the length of the forest fire insurance season in 2004, although it fluctuated, it generally tended to be stable. From 2005 to 2013, The seasonal length of forest fire danger has a trend of shortening year by year. 4) the study shows that the elevation, slope, distance from railway, distance from highway, infrastructure, The maximum daily surface temperature (鈩，

本文编号：1503246