基于可持续的典型引黄灌区协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 11:02

本文选题：水资源协调优化配置 + 协调发展指数　；参考：《华北水利水电大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文以典型引黄灌区——大功引黄灌区为例,对改扩建后灌区内的可利用水资源进行可持续、协调优化配置,以期获得灌区综合经济效益、单位种植面积粮食产量及生态供水保证率三者的协调发展指数最大。研究首先介绍了大功引黄灌区基本情况,并对改扩建大功引黄灌区进行了必要性和可行性分析;接下来进行灌区的农业灌溉需水分析,以及近远期规划年灌区的生活、农业、工业和生态需水量的预测,进而得出灌区需水总量;然后计算大功引黄灌区内的灌溉水资源可利用量,包括灌区有效降雨量、地下水可开采量和许可引黄水量,加和得到不同规划年灌区的可供水总量;最后以整个灌区水资源综合经济效益、单位种植面积粮食产量和生态环境供水保证率三者发展的协调指数为目标函数,同时兼顾这3个指标尽量最大化,确定约束条件,建立基于可持续的灌区多目标协调优化配置模型。本文运用的主要研究方法有模糊数学隶属度、净效益系数法、层次分析法、熵值法以及模糊多目标综合效益系数法。结果显示,不同规划年灌区协调发展指数分别为2020年μ=0.927,2025年μ=0.924。同时,水资源优化配置结果表明:灌区2025年工业缺水率和农业缺水率均小于2020年,尤其是农业缺水率从2020年的3.2%下降到2025年的0.3%。而且协调优化配置后灌区的社会、经济、生态环境均处于高度协调发展状态,说明该方法用于优化水资源的配置是可持续发展的,具有一定的优势。
[Abstract]:Taking the typical irrigated area of Yellow River-Dayong Yellow River Irrigation District as an example, this paper makes a sustainable and coordinated and optimized allocation of the available water resources in the irrigated area after the reconstruction and extension, in order to obtain the comprehensive economic benefit of the irrigation district.The coordinated development index of grain yield and ecological water supply guarantee rate per unit planting area is the largest.At first, the paper introduces the basic situation of Dayong Yellow River Irrigation District, and analyzes the necessity and feasibility of rebuilding and extending the Irrigation District, and then analyses the water demand for agricultural irrigation in irrigation area, as well as the life and agriculture of irrigation district in the near and long term planning year.Forecast of industrial and ecological water demand, and then get the total water demand of irrigation area; then calculate the available amount of irrigation water resources, including effective rainfall, groundwater exploitation amount and allowable amount of water diversion from the Yellow River.Add sum to get the total amount of water supply of irrigation district in different planning years, finally take the coordination index of the development of water resources comprehensive economic benefit, grain yield per unit planting area and the guarantee rate of ecological environment water supply as the objective function.At the same time, the three indexes are maximized, the constraint conditions are determined, and the multi-objective optimal allocation model of irrigation district based on sustainability is established.The main research methods used in this paper include membership degree of fuzzy mathematics, net benefit coefficient method, analytic hierarchy process, entropy method and fuzzy multi-objective comprehensive benefit coefficient method.The results showed that the coordinated development index of irrigation districts in different planning years was 0.927 in 2020 and 0.924 in 2025.At the same time, the optimal allocation of water resources shows that the water shortage rate of industry and agriculture in 2025 is lower than that in 2020, especially the rate of water shortage in agriculture decreases from 3.2% in 2020 to 0.3% in 2025.Moreover, the society, economy and ecological environment of irrigation district after coordinated and optimized allocation are in a highly coordinated development state, which indicates that this method is sustainable and has certain advantages in optimizing the allocation of water resources.
【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：S274

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