2003年-2013年南四湖湿地景观变化及驱动机制研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 05:34

本文选题：南四湖湿地　切入点：GIS　出处：《北京林业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：湿地资源是地球自然生态系统的重要组成部分,是人类重要的生存环境之一。南四湖是我国南水北调的重要枢纽。由于自然因素、人为活动等的影响,南四湖湿地的生态系统遭到了严重威胁,使湿地功能的正常发挥受到了破坏。南四湖湿地景观变化的研究,对南四湖湿地的发展,协调处理各种问题至关重要。研究以南四湖湿地为对象,运用景观格局指标与湿地转移矩阵相结合的方法,通过四期遥感数据、10年统计数据,以及其他辅助资料的基础上,利用ArcGIS.ERDAS.Fragstats以及SPSS等软件进行分析。主要结论有：(1)2003年-2013年,南四湖湿地景观类型及面积变化主要表现在,库塘和水田在内的人工湿地面积不断扩大,湖水域、河道、水草地和滩涂等自然湿地面积总体呈缓慢减少的趋势以及内部各类型之间的相互转移,其他非湿地面积的不断减少。(2)10年间,南四湖湿地的景观格局变化以2009年为界,2003年-2009年,湿地景观不断破碎化,斑块形状趋于简单化,景观趋于多样化。2009年-2013年,湿地景观破碎化程度有所好转,多样化指数有所下降。(3)通过对2003年-2013年南四湖湿地的预测及动态建模得出,三次多项式y=a+bt+ct2+dt3能够较好地对湿地的动态变化进行量化表达,并通过三次多项式的一阶导数、二阶导数以及三阶导数,得到湿地各类型面积变化的速度、加速度以及加加速度,来分析湿地类型面积变化的趋势。(4)景观类型的变化与气温、降水、湿度、日照时长等的变化密切相关,与国家生态补水工程和南水北调工程的开展紧密相连,与社会经济中的人口增长显著相关。人为因素在整个景观格局的变化中起着重要作用,且影响程度日益增加。对社会经济因素的分析,主要采用主成分分析和相关性分析。将19个社会经济指标归为社会经济投入与产出的变化与人口的变化两大类。并以人工湿地的面积作为因变量,以第一主成分和第二主成分的量化值作为自变量,建立人工湿地变化与社会经济驱动因子关系式y=36387.303+655.181Y1-1960.302Y2方程拟合度R2值为0.945,拟合度比较好,能够较好地反映湿地面积变化与社会经济因子之间的关系。
[Abstract]:Wetland resources are an important part of the earth's natural ecological system, is one of the most important living environment of human beings. Nansi Lake is an important hub of South to North Water Transfer in China. Because of natural factors, such as the impact of human activities, the ecological system of Lake Nansi wetland has been seriously threatened, the wetland function of the wetland has been destroyed. Landscape changes of Nansi Lake wetland development, and coordination in dealing with all kinds of problems is very important. On Lake Nansi wetland as the object, using the method of wetland landscape pattern index and combining transfer matrix, through four period remote sensing data, statistical data of 10 years, and other auxiliary materials, were analyzed by ArcGIS.ERDAS.Fragstats and SPSS software. The main conclusions are: (1) 2003 -2013, the type and area of wetland landscape changes in Nansi Lake mainly in the pond and water field, people Artificial wetland area continues to expand, the waters of the lake, river, water and beaches and other natural wetland area is mutual transfer between the slow decrease trend as well as various types of internal, decreasing non wetland area. (2) 10 years, the landscape pattern change of wetland in Nansihu area bounded by 2009, 2003 -2009 years. The wetland landscape fragmentation, landscape patch shape tended to be simplified, the diversification of.2009 years -2013 years, wetland landscape fragmentation has improved, the diversity index decreased. (3) by 2003 -2013 in the Nansi Lake prediction and dynamic modeling of the wet well, the dynamic changes of the wetland to quantify the expression of three polynomial y=a+bt+ct2+dt3 and, through the first derivative of a polynomial of degree three, two and three order derivative derivative, change of wetland area of various types of speed, acceleration and jerk, analysis The change of wetland type area trend. (4) changes with temperature, humidity, landscape type precipitation, sunshine time is closely related to changes in long, closely linked with the national ecological water project and the water diversion project is carried out, and the social economy in the population growth significantly. The human factor plays an important role in the change of the whole the landscape pattern, and the influence degree is increasing. The analysis of socio-economic factors, mainly by principal component analysis and correlation analysis. The 19 changes in social and economic indicators for social and economic changes of input and output and two of the population categories. And the artificial wetland area as the dependent variable, to quantify the first principal component and the second principal component values as independent variables, the establishment of driving change and social economic factors of artificial wetland relation y=36387.303+655.181Y1-1960.302Y2 equation fitting degree R2 value is 0.945, the fitting degree is good, It can better reflect the relationship between the change of wetland area and the social and economic factors.

【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P901

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