江苏省城镇用地扩张过程及其驱动力研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 23:01

本文选题：城镇用地 + 时空扩张　；参考：《南京大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国正处于城镇化发展转型的关键时期,研究城镇用地的扩展规律与驱动机制,可以为科学制定城市规划、土地规划以及各项用地政策,引导城市土地合理利用与布局提供一定的参考。本文以江苏省作为研究区域,对解决经济发达地区的用地问题具有一定的指导意义。以江苏省1997-2013年地籍调查成果为城镇用地规模扩张数据源,以1995年、2000年、2005年和2010年4个时期TM影像解译的矢量数据为城镇用地空间扩张数据源,综合运用景观格局指数、回归分析等方法模型,分析了江苏省城镇用地扩张的时序特征及其空间形态演变过程,揭示了其地域差异规律,并在此基础上分别从数量和空间形态的角度划分了城镇用地扩张的不同类型,研究了不同城镇用地扩张类型的主要驱动力。本文主要研究成果如下:(1)分析了 1997-2013年间江苏省城镇用地扩张的时序演变特征。江苏省城镇建设用地规模总体呈现不断增长的趋势,而各时期的扩张态势又有所不同。城镇用地扩张速率呈先上升后下降的趋势,整体扩张速度较快,扩张强度呈随时间不断提高的趋势,且区域差异较为明显。(2)从扩张的空间形态上来看,1995-2010年江苏省城镇用地破碎程度不断增加,斑块形状复杂性程度较高,城镇建设用地布局不规则,需加强用地控制。平均斑块面积呈现上升趋势,分散指数不断减小,城镇用地趋于集中。江苏省13个地级市城镇用地的空间扩张类型均为外延型,但各城市的扩张方向有所不同。利用象限法对外延型城镇用地扩张形态进行进一步划分,将其分为单向外延扩张、双向外延扩张、三向外延扩张和四向外延扩张。单向扩张的城市主要位于江苏省界周边,双向扩张县市在边缘和中心均有分布,三向扩张县市主要位于苏南地区。(3)经济、社会因素是影响城镇用地规模扩张的主要驱动因素。对1997-2013年各社会经济因子与江苏省城镇用地面积进行线性回归,结果表明财政收入对江苏省城镇用地规模扩张的影响程度最高,江苏省城镇用地规模增长主要受到经济发展因素的驱动,人口和劳动力因素的影响次之。选取无锡市、泰州市和徐州市作为典型城市分析其规模扩张驱动力,结果表明扩张速率越高、扩张规模越大的城市,社会经济因素对城镇用地规模扩张的影响作用越强。(4)城镇用地的空间扩张驱动力包括自然、社会、经济、区位因素。选取23个空间驱动因子,通过逐步多元回归,发现象限内原城镇用地面积、国家高速公路干线长度、铁路干线长度、到国家高速公路距离、距国道距离等指标对象限内城镇用地扩张面积影响较大,而二三产业增加值、全社会固定资产投资额、城镇人口、水域用地面积等对城镇用地扩张面积影响较小。
[Abstract]:Our country is in the key period of urbanization development transition. Studying the law and driving mechanism of urban land expansion can make urban planning, land planning and various land use policies scientifically. Guide the rational use and layout of urban land to provide certain reference. This paper takes Jiangsu Province as the research area, which has certain guiding significance to solve the problem of land use in economically developed areas. Based on the results of urban land scale expansion from 1997 to 2013 in Jiangsu Province, the vector data interpreted by TM images in 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 were used as data sources for spatial expansion of urban land, and the landscape pattern index was used synthetically. Based on regression analysis and other methods, this paper analyzes the temporal characteristics of urban land expansion in Jiangsu Province and the evolution process of its spatial form, and reveals the law of regional difference. On this basis, the different types of urban land expansion are divided from the angle of quantity and spatial form, and the main driving forces of different urban land expansion types are studied. The main results of this paper are as follows: (1) the temporal evolution of urban land expansion in Jiangsu Province from 1997 to 2013 is analyzed. The scale of urban construction land in Jiangsu Province is increasing, and the expansion trend is different in different periods. The expansion rate of urban land increased first and then decreased. The overall expansion rate was faster, and the expansion intensity was increasing with time. The regional difference is obvious. (2) from the view of expanding spatial form, the degree of fragmentation of urban land in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2010 is increasing, the complexity of patch shape is higher, and the layout of urban construction land is irregular, so it is necessary to strengthen land use control. The average patch area showed an upward trend, the dispersion index decreased, and the urban land tended to be concentrated. The spatial expansion types of urban land in 13 prefectural cities of Jiangsu Province are all epitaxial, but the expansion direction of each city is different. By using the quadrant method, the extension of urban land is further divided into three types: unidirectional extension, bidirectional extension, three-direction extension and four-direction extension. The unidirectional expansion of the city is mainly located around the boundary of Jiangsu Province, the bi-directional expansion of the county and city in the edge and center of the distribution, the three-way expansion of the county is mainly located in the south of Jiangsu Province, the economic), social factors are the main driving factors affecting the scale of urban land expansion. The linear regression between the social and economic factors and the area of urban land use in Jiangsu Province from 1997 to 2013 shows that the financial revenue has the highest influence on the scale expansion of urban land use in Jiangsu Province. Urban land use scale growth in Jiangsu Province is mainly driven by economic development factors, followed by population and labor factors. Wuxi City, Taizhou City and Xuzhou City are selected as typical cities to analyze the driving force of scale expansion. The results show that the higher the expansion rate, the larger the scale of the cities, The influence of social and economic factors on urban land scale expansion is stronger. (4) the spatial expansion driving force of urban land use includes natural, social, economic and location factors. Selecting 23 spatial driving factors, through stepwise multivariate regression, we found that the original urban land area in quadrant, the length of national highway trunk line, the length of railway trunk line, the distance to the national expressway, The distance from the national highway has a great influence on the area of urban land expansion, while the added value of the secondary and tertiary industries, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society, the urban population and the area of water land use have little effect on the expansion area of urban land use.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.23

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