长沙市戊型肝炎发病与气象因素关系的负二项回归模型分析

发布时间：2018-01-14 12:37

  本文关键词：长沙市戊型肝炎发病与气象因素关系的负二项回归模型分析　出处：《中国全科医学》2017年14期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 戊型肝炎 天气和发病 二项分布 影响因素分析

【摘要】：目的探讨戊型肝炎发病与气象因素的关系。方法收集2004—2015年长沙市每月戊型肝炎发病数和气象数据。通过过离散检验、模型拟合效果指标的比较评价Poisson回归模型和负二项回归模型的优劣,选择最优模型分析影响戊型肝炎发病的气象因素。结果 2004—2015年长沙市共报告戊型肝炎1 355例,年发病率为(0.21~2.77)/10万,全年散发,其中以2—5月居多。根据各气象资料的相关性分析,选择月降水量、月平均气压、月平均风速、月平均气温、月平均相对湿度、月降水日数、月日照时数进入模型。过离散检验和模型拟合效果指标显示,负二项回归模型拟合效果优于Poisson回归模型。负二项回归模型分析显示,月平均气温[b=-0.024,95%CI(-0.036,-0.013)]、月降水日数[b=0.047,95%CI(0.032,0.062)]、月日照时数[b=0.003,95%CI(0.001,0.005)]是长沙市戊型肝炎发病的影响因素(P0.05)。结论气温降低、降水日数增多、日照时间延长是长沙市戊型肝炎发病例数增多的气象因素。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the relationship between the incidence of hepatitis E and meteorological factors. Methods the monthly incidence and meteorological data of hepatitis E in Changsha from 2004 to 2015 were collected. The Poisson regression model and the negative binomial regression model were compared with each other. The optimal model was selected to analyze the meteorological factors affecting the incidence of hepatitis E. results A total of 1 355 cases of hepatitis E were reported in Changsha from 2004 to 2015. The annual incidence rate was 0.21 ~ 2.77 / 100,000, which was distributed in the whole year, most of which were from February to May. According to the correlation analysis of meteorological data, monthly precipitation, monthly mean pressure and monthly average wind speed were selected. Monthly mean temperature, monthly average relative humidity, monthly precipitation days, monthly sunshine hours entered the model. The fitting effect of negative binomial regression model is better than that of Poisson regression model. The analysis of negative binomial regression model shows that the monthly mean temperature is better than that of Poisson regression model. [B ~ (-0.024) ~ (95) ~ 0.036 ~ (-0.013)), number of days of monthly precipitation. [B 0.047 / 95CIQ 0.032 / 0.062], monthly sunshine hours. [Conclusion the temperature decreases and the precipitation days increase. The prolongation of sunshine time is the meteorological factor of increasing incidence of hepatitis E in Changsha.
【作者单位】： 湖南省长沙市疾病预防控制中心;
【分类号】：R122;R512.6
【正文快照】： 近年来,戊型肝炎的发病率维持在较低水平,介水传播的戊型肝炎暴发流行较少出现,主要以散发病例为主。国内研究表明,散发性戊型肝炎的发生亦有明显的 季节性,呈明显的冬春季节分布[1]。为探讨戊型肝炎与气象因素的关系,针对目前较分散的戊型肝炎病例分布状态,本研究通过拟合Po，

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