间日疟疫情与气象因素的广义相加模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-17 22:04

本文关键词：间日疟疫情与气象因素的广义相加模型研究　出处：《中国人兽共患病学报》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的探讨云南省腾冲地区疟疾疫情与气象因素之间的关系,以解释气象因素在疟疾传播与流行中的作用,为采取针对性的预防措施提供理论依据。方法根据中国疾病预防控制中心提供的2005-2010年腾冲县间日疟月发病数据以及收集同期该地月平均气温、月平均最高气温、月平均最低气温、月降雨量、月平均相对湿度、月最小相对湿度等气象资料,运用Pearson相关分析方法分析疟疾发病例数与气象因素的相关性,采用广义相加模型分析气象因素及媒介能量与疟疾发病之间的关系。结果最低气温、平均相对湿度及最小相对湿度与本地疟疾发病间存在较弱的正相关关系;媒介能量、相对湿度与疟疾发病间存在较复杂的非线性关系。当媒介能量10时,呈现正效应,并随媒介能量的增加对疟疾发病的正效应逐渐增强;当平均相对湿度在55%~70%之间时,对疟疾发病产生正效应,但相对湿度70%时,对本地疟疾发病的效应值降低。结论广义相加模型能够较好地解释气象因素与本地疟疾发病之间的关系,媒介能量、相对湿度与疟疾疫情间存在着较为复杂的非线性关系。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the relationship between malaria epidemic situation and meteorological factors in Tengchong, Yunnan Province, and to explain the role of meteorological factors in malaria transmission and epidemic. Methods according to the monthly incidence data of vivax malaria in Tengchong County from 2005 to 2010 and collecting the monthly average air temperature in Tengchong County during the same period. Monthly mean maximum temperature, monthly mean minimum temperature, monthly rainfall, monthly mean relative humidity, monthly minimum relative humidity and other meteorological data. Pearson correlation analysis method was used to analyze the correlation between the number of malaria cases and meteorological factors, and the generalized additive model was used to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors, vector energy and malaria incidence. The results showed that the minimum temperature was the lowest temperature. There was a weak positive correlation between the mean relative humidity and the minimum relative humidity and the incidence of local malaria. There is a complex nonlinear relationship between vector energy, relative humidity and malaria incidence. When the vector energy is 10:00, the positive effect is observed, and the positive effect increases with the increase of vector energy. When the average relative humidity was between 55% and 70%, there was a positive effect on the incidence of malaria, but the relative humidity was 70%. Conclusion the generalized additive model can explain the relationship between meteorological factors and local malaria incidence, vector energy. There is a complicated nonlinear relationship between relative humidity and malaria epidemic situation.
【作者单位】：江苏省血吸虫病防治研究所;江南大学公共卫生研究中心;杭州电子科技大学;瑞士热带病研究所流行病学与公共卫生学院;巴塞尔大学;
【基金】：国际发展研究中心(IDCR)(No.105509-00001002-024&108100-001) 国家自然科学基金(No.81573261) 江苏省科技厅项目(No.BM2015024) 国家科技计划(No.2012ZX10004-220)联合资助~~
【分类号】：R531.3
【正文快照】： 疟疾是严重危害人类身体健康和生命安全、影响社会经济发展的重要寄生虫病之一,约50%的世界人口面临着感染疟疾的风险[1]。当前我国疟疾的发病主要集中在海南、云南等地区。2009年云南省共报告疟疾病例3 163例,疟疾发病率0.69/万,输入病例占70.22%,发病率超过1/万以上的县占15

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