京津冀地区细菌性痢疾时空分布格局及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 14:52

本文选题：GIS　切入点：京津冀　出处：《长安大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：任何事物都有其发生的时间、地点以及特定的属性,这是地理空间数据的重要组成部分,也是地理信息系统(GIS)分析和研究的基础。近年来,随着计算机技术的快速发展,GIS技术也得到迅速发展,已应用于公共卫生、犯罪制图、交通管理等诸多领域。19世纪约翰·斯诺首次将地理信息应用于流行病研究,如今,GIS技术为研究疾病的时空分布特征和相关问题研究开辟了新的途径。京津冀地区细菌性痢疾的发病率处于全国较高水平,且人口密集、流动性大。分析京津冀地区细菌性痢疾的时空分布格局和探测影响因素的影响强度以及交互作用对该地区细菌性痢疾疫情预防、减少经济损失有重要的意义。本研究是GIS技术在流行病学领域中的应用,研究方法可为相关领域的研究提供借鉴,研究结果填补了京津冀地区细菌性痢疾研究的空白,为该地区公共卫生部门制定相关防控政策和措施以及医疗资源的合理配置提供科学依据。本研究以京津冀地区细菌性痢疾病例数据为研究对象,通过ArcGIS建立疾病地理空间数据库,运用描述性分析和ArcGIS分析了京津冀地区细菌性痢疾的时空分布特征及空间相关性;使用时空扫描统计量(SaTScan软件)研究了细菌性痢疾可能的高发聚集区。然后使用地理探测器,探索了所选气象因素和社会经济因素对细菌性痢疾时空分布的影响强度以及各因素之间的交互作用。在此基础上,运用分布滞后非线性模型,研究了气温对京津冀高发聚集区细菌性痢疾的滞后效应。主要得出以下结论:(1)细菌性痢疾的时空分布特征:在时间上,无论是整个研究区还是研究区中的各个市甚至缩小到县/区,细菌性痢疾的发生都存在明显的季节性,高发月份在5至10月;空间上,细菌性痢疾的分布存在区域差异性,发病率较高的地区分布于北京市、天津市和邯郸市,其中发病率最高的是河北省邯郸市的馆陶县((186.71/10万)。(2)细菌性痢疾的时空聚集性:京津冀地区细菌性痢疾存在明显的空间自相关性,且存在多个可能的高发聚集区。空间扫描统计量的结果表明,细菌性痢疾在空间上存在不同程度的爆发,可能的高发聚集区有5个,其中聚集性最强的聚集区位于北京市及其周边的19个县/区,其危险程度RR值为2.44,而天津市所辖的部分县/区位于次级高发聚集区,但其危险程度最大,RR值为3.59。时空扫描统计量的结果表明,在6月份至8月份,不同地区细菌性痢疾有不同程度的爆发,可能的高发聚集区有6个,其中聚集性最强的聚集区位于天津市的大部分地区,其危险程度为4.94。(3)细菌性痢疾时空分布影响因素研究:气象因素中日平均气温和日相对湿度对细菌性痢疾的季节分布的影响较强;气象因素之间的交互作用都显著强于各因素的单独作用,其中交互作用最大的是日平均气温和日相对湿度,解释力为87%。不同的区域,影响细菌性痢疾空间分布的社会经济因素不同。在北京、天津等第一研究区,人口密度和居民人均纯收入对其的影响较强;而以河北省为主的第二研究区,小学在校人数比重和人均GDP起的作用较强。另外,两个子研究区中各社会经济因素之间的交互作用也都显著强于各因素的单独作用。(4)气温对细菌性痢疾的发生有明显的滞后效应,且滞后效应为一种非线性关系;在不同地区,滞后的天数、滞后效应等不同。
[Abstract]:Everything has its time of occurrence, location and specific properties, which is an important part of geographic spatial data, and geographic information system (GIS) based on the analysis and research. In recent years, with the rapid development of computer technology, GIS technology has been rapid development, has been applied to public health, crime mapping traffic management, and many other areas of the.19 century John Snow for the first time to study, the geographic information used in epidemiology today, GIS technology provides a new way to study the temporal and spatial distribution of the disease and the related problems. The incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was higher at the national level, and population density, mobility analysis of bacterial. Dysentery in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region spatial distribution pattern and detect the influence intensity and interaction on prevention of bacterial dysentery epidemic in the region, reduce economic losses are important The significance of this research is the application of GIS technology in the field of epidemiology, the research methods can provide reference for the related research in the field, the results of the study fills the blank of study on bacterial dysentery in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, and provide scientific basis for the rational allocation of public health departments in the region to formulate relevant policies and measures to prevention and control and medical resources in this research. In cases of bacterial dysentery data of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region as the research object, through the establishment of ArcGIS disease geospatial database, using descriptive analysis and ArcGIS analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and spatial correlation of bacterial dysentery in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region; using space-time scan statistic (SaTScan software) on the incidence of bacillary dysentery may then use the geographic gathering area. The detector, explore the selected meteorological factors and social economic factors on the impact of bacterial dysentery in the temporal and spatial distribution of intensity and factors The interaction between. On this basis, using the distributed lag nonlinear model, study the lag effect of temperature on the Beijing Tianjin Hebei area high incidence of bacillary dysentery. Main conclusions are as follows: (1) the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of bacillary dysentery: in time, whether it is the whole study area or in each city in the study area even down to the county / District, incidence of bacillary dysentery has obvious seasonal, high in the month 5 to October; the space, distribution of bacillary dysentery has regional differences, with high incidence area located in Beijing City, Tianjin city and Handan City, of which the highest incidence is in Hebei of Handan province the city of Guantao county ((186.71/10 million). (2) temporal aggregation: bacterial dysentery bacillary dysentery in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region exist obvious spatial autocorrelation, a possible high accumulation area and spatial scan statistics. The results show that, There are different degrees of bacillary dysentery outbreak in space, may the high gathering area has 5, including 19 counties / district gathered the highest clustering is located in Beijing city and its surrounding area, the risk degree of RR value is 2.44, and part of the county / Tianjin city under the jurisdiction of the district is located in the secondary high gathering area but, the risk degree, RR value of 3.59. space-time scan statistic results show that from June to August, bacterial dysentery in different regions have different levels of the outbreak, may have 6 high accumulation area, the gathering area gathered the most located in Tianjin City, part of the area, the degree of risk for 4.94. (3) to study the influencing factors of bacterial dysentery: in the temporal and spatial distribution of daily average temperature and meteorological factors on the influence of relative humidity on the seasonal distribution of bacillary dysentery is strong; single interaction between meteorological factors are significantly stronger than that of various factors, including The interaction is the largest daily average temperature and relative humidity, explain 87%. different regions, social and economic factors affecting the spatial distribution of different bacterial dysentery. In Beijing, Tianjin, the first study area, population density and per capita net income residents and the effects of strong; and mainly in Hebei Province second study area the number of primary school, and the proportion of per capita GDP role is strong. In addition, individual interaction between the social economic factors in the two study area are significantly stronger than the factors. (4) the temperature of bacillary dysentery has obvious lag effect and hysteresis effect for a nonlinear relationship; in different regions, lag days, hysteresis effect is different.

【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：R516.4

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