2013-2014年中国地区人感染H7N9禽流感疫情空间分布格局及时空聚集模式研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 05:13

本文选题：禽流感　切入点：时空聚类分析　出处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2017年07期

【摘要】：目的了解2013年3月~2014年12月期间中国地区人感染H7N9禽流感疫情的时空聚集模式和时空传播特点。方法利用整理好的疫情病例数据,基于描述性统计分析、标准差椭圆分析及时空扫描聚类分析方法,对我国人感染H7N9禽流感各月疫情的时空分布特点、空间分布格局以及时空聚集模式进行研究。结果研究期间每年的冬春季为疫情流行的相对高峰期,疫情高发区域集中于中国东部及东南沿海一带地区(如浙江、广东、江苏、福建及上海),疫情的空间分布格局经历了初始于中国东部局部地区——沿中国东部向东南沿海地区蔓延——由东南沿海地区向中部及西部地区扩散的过程;2013年4月探测到一个最有可能的疫情时空聚集(P0.001)及一个次要的疫情时空聚集(P=0.029),此外2014年1月、2014年2月及2014年4月各发现一个最有可能的疫情时空聚集(均有P0.05)。结论由于中国地区人感染H7N9禽流感疫情空间分布格局与时空聚集模式之间的差异性,疫情的传播呈现出总体扩张但局部聚集的不平衡的特性,同时疫情具有明显的季节性流行特点,相关部门应根据疫情传播特点科学制定防控措施。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the temporal and spatial patterns of H7N9 avian influenza in China from March 2013 to December 2014.Methods based on descriptive statistical analysis, standard deviation ellipse analysis and spatio-temporal scanning cluster analysis, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of H7N9 avian influenza in China were analyzed.Spatial distribution pattern and spatiotemporal aggregation model were studied.Results the winter and spring of each year during the study period were the relative peak periods of the epidemic. The high incidence areas of the epidemic were concentrated in the eastern and southeast coastal areas of China (such as Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, etc.)In Fujian and Shanghai, the spatial distribution pattern of epidemic situation has experienced the process of spreading from southeast coastal area to central and western area from southeast coastal area to central and western area, beginning in the local area of eastern China-spreading along the eastern part of China to southeast coastal area.One of the most probable temporal and spatial aggregates (P0.001) and one secondary epidemic locus (P0.029) were detected in January 2014, February 2014 and April 2014, respectively, and the most probable temporal and spatial aggregation (P0.05) was detected respectively in January 2014, February 2014 and April 2014.Conclusion due to the difference between spatial distribution pattern and spatio-temporal aggregation pattern of human H7N9 avian influenza in China, the spread of the epidemic presents the characteristics of overall expansion but local aggregation.At the same time, the epidemic situation has obvious seasonal epidemic characteristics, relevant departments should scientifically formulate prevention and control measures according to the characteristics of epidemic spread.
【作者单位】：云南师范大学信息学院空间信息与数字技术系;云南师范大学西部资源环境GIS技术教育部工程研究中心;云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院地理信息科学系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41461038,41661087) 国家高技术研究发展计划(863)(2012AA1214002,2012AA1214003) 高等学校博士学科点专项联合基金(20115303110002) 云南省科技厅自然科学基金(2011XX2005) 云南省教育部研究基金(2011Y307)
【分类号】：R181.3;R511.7

【相似文献】