内蒙古自治区2006-2010年布鲁氏杆菌病发病的空间流行特征及发病率预测

发布时间：2018-06-02 02:15

本文选题：布鲁氏杆菌病 + GIS、R　；参考：《内蒙古科技大学包头医学院》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：目的（1）应用描述流行病学方法分析内蒙古自治区布病发病的流行趋势及等级分布特征;（2）应用GIS软件和R软件技术揭示内蒙古自治区2006-2010年布病的空间分布特征及空间聚集性情况;（3）选用适当的预测方法预测其发病率。方法利用传统流行病学方法描述布病的三间分布及等级分布；利用GIS软件制作布病年均发病率的地图并用R软件进行空间相关统计分析；应用灰色系统GM（1,1）模型，对布病的发病率作出预测并进行评价。结果（1）五年间布病发病率居全区法定传染病发病第三位，发病率呈现上升趋势，发病人群以农民为主，平均发病率为28.67/10万；发病年龄集中在35-45岁之间，平均发病率为14.65/10万；性别主要以男性为主，，男女性别比为1.22：1；发病时间主要集中在6月份，平均发病率为7.25/10万；发病率较高地区主要为锡林浩特、乌兰察布、呼伦贝尔，平均发病率分别为34.83/10万、10.77/10万、7.09/10万。按分级方法统计，内蒙古自治区布病高发病率地区有3个，占全自治区的25%；较高发病率地区没有；中等发病率地区1个，占8.33%；其余66.67%地区都是发病率较低的地区；（2）制作布病2006-2010年各年发病率分布图及年均发病率分布图，空间分析结果显示布病发病不存在空间集聚现象。（3）通过GM（1,1）模型预测发现布病发病率呈上升趋势，经拟合精度检验显示该模型预测结果较好。结论本文利用GIS软件制作布病发病的电子地图，用R软件对五年间布病年均发病率进行空间统计分析，整个分析过程简单明了，将分析过程列于文章当中，形象的说明了GIS软件和R软件的实用性。然后利用GM（1,1）灰色模型对布病的发病率进行预测，并对预测结果予以评估，证明了该模型应用的可信度。
[Abstract]:Objective 1) to analyze the epidemic trend and grade distribution of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region by descriptive epidemiology. To reveal the spatial distribution and spatial distribution of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia from 2006 to 2010 by using GIS software and R software technology. The incidence rate was predicted by appropriate prediction method. Methods using the traditional epidemiological method to describe the three distribution and grade distribution of brucellosis, using GIS software to make map of annual incidence of brucellosis and using R software to carry out spatial correlation statistical analysis, and using the grey system GM-1) model. Forecast and evaluate the incidence of brucellosis. Results (1) the incidence of brucellosis was the third highest in the whole district during the past five years, and the incidence rate was on the rise. The average incidence rate was 28.67 / 100 000 among farmers, and the average incidence rate was 14.65% / 100 000 at the age of 35-45 years. The main sex is male, the ratio of male to female is 1.22: 1; the onset time is mainly concentrated in June, the average incidence rate is 7.25 / 100 thousand; the main areas with high incidence are Xilinhaote, Ulanchab, and Hulunbeir. The average incidence was 34.83 / 100, 000, 10.77 / 100, 000 or 709 / 100, 000, respectively. According to the classification method, there are three areas with high incidence of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, accounting for 25% of the whole region; none in the higher incidence areas; and one region with a moderate incidence rate. Accounting for 8.33%; the remaining 66.67% of the regions are low incidence areas.) the annual incidence distribution map and the annual incidence distribution map of brucellosis from 2006 to 2010 are made. The spatial analysis results showed that there was no spatial agglomeration in the incidence of brucellosis. (1) the incidence rate of brucellosis was found to be on the rise by GM1 / 1) model, and the fitting accuracy test showed that the model had better prediction results. Conclusion the electronic map of the incidence of brucellosis is made by using GIS software, and the average annual incidence of brucellosis in five years is analyzed by R software. The whole analysis process is simple and clear, and the analysis process is listed in the article. The utility of GIS software and R software is illustrated graphically. Then the incidence of brucellosis was predicted by using GM1 / 1) grey model, and the prediction results were evaluated, which proved the reliability of the application of the model.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古科技大学包头医学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：R516.7

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