洞庭湖区钉螺与血吸虫病时空变化特征及其与环境因子关系研究

发布时间：2018-08-11 08:31

【摘要】：血吸虫病是一种严重危害人体健康、制约社会经济发展的传染病或寄生虫病。我国是日本血吸虫病流行最严重的国家之一。目前，关于血吸虫病的研究主要集中在血吸虫病的流行与防治方面。同时，关于血吸虫病与环境因子（水文特征、温度、植被等）的关系，国内外学者做了大量的相关研究。研究表明环境条件是影响钉螺生存和血吸虫病传播的决定性因素。随着三峡工程的蓄水运行、气候的变化、退田还湖政策的实施等，，有关洞庭湖区水和生态环境的改变对洲滩钉螺生存和血吸虫病的传播影响研究还有待进一步开展。本研究拟以洞庭湖区为研究对象，以该区域血吸虫病疫情、MODIS以及水位等数据为基础，采用ENVI、GIS分析软件及其他统计学方法，系统地研究了洞庭湖区血吸虫病疫情及钉螺的时空变化特征及疫情与环境因子的关系。研究结果如下：（1）洞庭湖区血吸虫疫情的时空变化特征研究表明：洞庭湖区急性血吸虫病呈显著下降趋势，近几年已被控制在20例以内，并且青少年病例所占比例显著减小；人类血吸虫病疫情整体呈上升趋势，其中1996~2003年间上升幅度极小，2003~2006年呈急剧上升趋势，2007年出现明显的下降后再次呈现显著的增长，并且2003年后疫情严重区域由靠近湖区向外扩张；耕牛血吸虫病1996~2003年间呈缓慢的增长趋势，2003年之后呈持续下降趋势，2010年较2003年下降了62.76%；且靠近湖区人类和耕牛血吸虫病疫情更为严重。（2）基于MODIS数据洞庭湖区钉螺可疑孳生地探测及其时空变化特征研究结果表明：基于MODIS遥感影像的多源信息水体提取方法在钉螺可疑孳生地探测方面具有良好的应用效果；洞庭湖区潜在的钉螺孳生地面积呈显著的减小趋势，2007年仅为2003年的39.40%，2008年为2003年的40.10%；且2003年以后，东洞庭湖区和南洞庭湖区钉螺可疑孳生地有显著的缩减，西洞庭湖区2004年之后则表现为仅剩下零碎的区域适宜钉螺孳生。（3）洞庭湖区血吸虫病疫情与环境因子关系研究表明：近年来，洞庭湖区水面面积、水位、洲滩水淹时间等环境因子均发生了一定的变化，且各环境因子与血吸虫病疫情之间存在不同程度的相关性。其中，洞庭湖区10月份的水位和洲滩开始水淹时间与人群感染率之间存极显著的负相关性，其相关系数的平方分别达到-0.800和-0.773。且10月份的水位和开始水淹时间与人群感染率之间回归模型拟合效果良好，未来洞庭湖区人类血吸虫病的发展可以依据10月份的水位和开始水淹时间进行初步预测。
[Abstract]:Schistosomiasis is an infectious disease or parasitic disease that seriously endangers human health and restricts social and economic development. China is one of the countries with the most serious schistosomiasis epidemic. At present, the research on schistosomiasis mainly focuses on the prevalence and prevention of schistosomiasis. At the same time, scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of research on the relationship between schistosomiasis and environmental factors (hydrological characteristics, temperature, vegetation, etc.). The results showed that environmental conditions were the decisive factors affecting the survival and schistosomiasis transmission of Oncomelania hupensis. With the operation of the three Gorges Project, the change of climate, the policy of returning farmland to lake, and so on, the study on the influence of water and ecological environment on the survival of Oncomelania hupensis and the transmission of schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake need to be carried out further. Based on the data of MODIS and water level of schistosomiasis epidemic situation in Dongting Lake region, the software of ENVI GIS analysis and other statistical methods were used in this study. The temporal and spatial changes of schistosomiasis and snail in Dongting Lake region and the relationship between epidemic situation and environmental factors were studied systematically. The results are as follows: (1) the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of schistosomiasis epidemic in Dongting Lake region show that the acute schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake region has decreased significantly and has been controlled within 20 cases in recent years. The proportion of juvenile schistosomiasis cases decreased significantly, and the overall epidemic situation of human schistosomiasis showed an upward trend, in which the increase was very small from 1996 to 2003 and showed a sharp upward trend from 2003 to 2006, and increased again after an obvious decrease in 2007. After 2003, the severe area of epidemic situation expanded from the lake area to the outside, and the trend of schistosomiasis of cultivated cattle increased slowly in 1996 and 2003, and decreased continuously after 2003, and decreased 62.76% in 2010 than in 2003. Furthermore, the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis in humans and cattle near the lake area is more serious. (2) based on MODIS data, the detection of suspected breeding sites of Oncomelania hupensis in Dongting Lake region and its temporal and spatial variation characteristics are studied. The results show that the multisource information based on MODIS remote sensing images is obtained. The method of extracting information water has a good effect on the detection of the suspected breeding areas of Oncomelania hupensis. The potential snail breeding area decreased significantly in Dongting Lake region, which was only 39.40 in 2007 and 40.10 in 2008, and decreased significantly after 2003 in East Dongting Lake and South Dongting Lake. In the west Dongting Lake region after 2004, only the scattered areas are suitable for snail breeding. (3) the study on the relationship between schistosomiasis epidemic situation and environmental factors in Dongting Lake region shows that: in recent years, the surface area and water level of Dongting Lake region, The environmental factors, such as waterflooded time, have changed to a certain extent, and there are different correlations between the environmental factors and schistosomiasis epidemic situation. The correlation coefficient square of the correlation coefficient was -0.800 and -0.773respectively. The regression model between the water level and the onset of flooding in October and the infection rate of the population fitted well. The future development of human schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake region can be preliminarily predicted according to the water level and the onset time of flooding in October.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：R532.21

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