使用生态位模型预测肾综合征出血热传播风险
发布时间：2019-04-11 06:40
【摘要】：肾综合征出血热(Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, HFRS)是一种以鼠类为主要宿主和动物传染源的自然疫源性疾病,以发热,出血和肾功能受损为主要临床特征。我国是世界上HFRS发病最多的国家,据统计,世界上90%多的病例都集中在中国。湖南省自1963年首次发现该病以来,累计有90%以上的县(市、区)曾报告发病,成为全国的高发省份之一,严重影响着人民的健康。HFRS的分布、传播和流行受到地理景观、气候和人类活动等自然、社会因素的影响。 本研究以湖南省湘江中下游地区和长沙市为例,收集整理HFRS人群病例数据和生态环境数据,结合地理信息系统(Geographic Information System, GIS)、遥感技术(Remote Sensing, RS)和生态位模型(Ecological Niche Models, ENMs)分析研究区HFRS的时空分布特征,探索HFRS的传播规律和环境危险因素,并对潜在的传播风险区进行预测,主要研究结果如下： (1)HFRS病例数据在时空分布上呈一定规律。在时间尺度上,HFRS发病人数存在明显的季节性变化。湘江中下游地区1月,4月～6月和11月～12月是HFRS发病的高峰期,而8月～10月的HFRS发病数明显较低；长沙市1月,4月～6月和11月～12月是HFRS的发病高峰期,8月～10月的HFRS病例数较少。在空间尺度上,HFRS病例暴发呈一定的空间聚集性。湘江中下游地区HFRS病例主要集中分布在西部(包括望城县,长沙市区,湘潭县和湘潭市区),长沙市HFRS病例多集中在西部(宁乡县,望城县和市辖区)和浏阳市的西北部。 (2)生态位模型预测结果。湘江中下游地区HFRS高传播风险主要集中在中部(望城县,长沙市区,湘潭县,湘潭市区,株洲县和株洲市区),南部(衡山县和衡东县)和北部(湘阴县和汨罗县)传播风险相对较低；长沙市HFRS高传播风险主要集中在中部偏西地区(长沙县,长沙市区,望城县和宁乡县东部),东部地区(浏阳市)风险偏低。 (3) HFRS发病率与相关环境因素关系密切。在湘江中下游地区和长沙市,气象因子(主要是温度和降水),NDVI和土地利用均是影响HFRS传播与流行的主要环境危险因素。HFRS传播高风险区主要集中在年平均温度18℃左右和年降水量1500mm至1600mm左右的区域oHFRS传播风险区的月平均NDVI值明显低于非风险区的月平均NDVI值,但变化幅度相对较大。5月和7月的NDVI值对HFRS的传播有着显著影响。城镇建筑用地和耕地是HFRS的主要用地风险。 本研究在分析HFRS病例时空分布特征的基础上,有效获取研究区HFRS传播的主要环境危险因素,同时成功预测区域内HFRS传播的潜在风险地区,为区域HFRS疫情防控措施的制定提供有效的理论依据；同时,结合GIS和ENMs对HFRS传播风险进行研究,可有效地解决传统传染病研究在疾病流行强度预测和传播区域预测相结合上的不足；该研究也可为类似传染病的研究提供方法与借鉴。
[Abstract]:Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a natural epidemic disease characterized by fever, hemorrhage and impairment of renal function. (Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, HFRS) is a natural epidemic disease with rodents as the main host and animal infection source. China has the highest incidence of HFRS in the world. According to statistics, more than 90% of the cases in the world are concentrated in China. Since the first discovery of the disease in Hunan Province in 1963, more than 90% of the counties (cities, districts) have reported the incidence of the disease, which has become one of the high incidence provinces in the country, seriously affecting the health of the people. The distribution, spread and prevalence of HFRS are affected by the geographical landscape. Climate and human activities, such as natural, social factors. Taking the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang River and Changsha City in Hunan Province as examples, this study collected and sorted out HFRS case data and eco-environmental data, combined with (Geographic Information System, GIS), remote sensing technology (Remote Sensing, RS) and niche model (Ecological Niche Models,. ENMs) analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of HFRS in the study area, explores the law of HFRS transmission and environmental risk factors, and predicts the potential transmission risk areas. The main results are as follows: (1) the spatial and temporal distribution of HFRS cases is regular. On the time scale, there are obvious seasonal changes in the number of HFRS patients. In the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang River, the peak of HFRS was in January, April to June and November to December, but the number of HFRS in August to October was lower than that in August to October. The incidence of HFRS in Changsha was peak in January, April-June and November-December, and the number of HFRS cases from August to October was relatively small. On the spatial scale, the outbreak of HFRS cases showed a certain spatial aggregation. The cases of HFRS in the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang River were mainly distributed in the west (including Wangcheng County, Changsha City, Xiangtan County and Xiangtan City), while the HFRS cases in Changsha City were mostly concentrated in the West (Ningxiang County, Wangcheng County and Municipal District) and the northwest of Liuyang City. (2) the prediction results of niche model. The high risk of HFRS transmission in the middle and lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River is mainly concentrated in the central part (Wangcheng County, Changsha City, Xiangtan County, Xiangtan City, Zhuzhou County and Zhuzhou City). The risk of transmission in the south (Hengshan County and Hengdong County) and the north (Xiangyin County and Miluo County) is relatively low; The high transmission risk of HFRS in Changsha was mainly concentrated in the west-central region (Changsha, Wangcheng and Ningxiang), while the risk in the eastern part (Liuyang) was lower than that in the west-central region (Changsha, Wangcheng and Ningxiang). (3) the incidence of HFRS was closely related to the related environmental factors. In the middle and lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River and Changsha City, meteorological factors (mainly temperature and precipitation), NDVI and land use are the main environmental risk factors affecting the spread and prevalence of HFRS. The high risk areas of HFRS transmission are mainly concentrated in the area with annual average temperature of about 18 鈩，
本文编号：2456166
[Abstract]:Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a natural epidemic disease characterized by fever, hemorrhage and impairment of renal function. (Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, HFRS) is a natural epidemic disease with rodents as the main host and animal infection source. China has the highest incidence of HFRS in the world. According to statistics, more than 90% of the cases in the world are concentrated in China. Since the first discovery of the disease in Hunan Province in 1963, more than 90% of the counties (cities, districts) have reported the incidence of the disease, which has become one of the high incidence provinces in the country, seriously affecting the health of the people. The distribution, spread and prevalence of HFRS are affected by the geographical landscape. Climate and human activities, such as natural, social factors. Taking the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang River and Changsha City in Hunan Province as examples, this study collected and sorted out HFRS case data and eco-environmental data, combined with (Geographic Information System, GIS), remote sensing technology (Remote Sensing, RS) and niche model (Ecological Niche Models,. ENMs) analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of HFRS in the study area, explores the law of HFRS transmission and environmental risk factors, and predicts the potential transmission risk areas. The main results are as follows: (1) the spatial and temporal distribution of HFRS cases is regular. On the time scale, there are obvious seasonal changes in the number of HFRS patients. In the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang River, the peak of HFRS was in January, April to June and November to December, but the number of HFRS in August to October was lower than that in August to October. The incidence of HFRS in Changsha was peak in January, April-June and November-December, and the number of HFRS cases from August to October was relatively small. On the spatial scale, the outbreak of HFRS cases showed a certain spatial aggregation. The cases of HFRS in the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang River were mainly distributed in the west (including Wangcheng County, Changsha City, Xiangtan County and Xiangtan City), while the HFRS cases in Changsha City were mostly concentrated in the West (Ningxiang County, Wangcheng County and Municipal District) and the northwest of Liuyang City. (2) the prediction results of niche model. The high risk of HFRS transmission in the middle and lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River is mainly concentrated in the central part (Wangcheng County, Changsha City, Xiangtan County, Xiangtan City, Zhuzhou County and Zhuzhou City). The risk of transmission in the south (Hengshan County and Hengdong County) and the north (Xiangyin County and Miluo County) is relatively low; The high transmission risk of HFRS in Changsha was mainly concentrated in the west-central region (Changsha, Wangcheng and Ningxiang), while the risk in the eastern part (Liuyang) was lower than that in the west-central region (Changsha, Wangcheng and Ningxiang). (3) the incidence of HFRS was closely related to the related environmental factors. In the middle and lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River and Changsha City, meteorological factors (mainly temperature and precipitation), NDVI and land use are the main environmental risk factors affecting the spread and prevalence of HFRS. The high risk areas of HFRS transmission are mainly concentrated in the area with annual average temperature of about 18 鈩，
本文编号：2456166
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/yixuelunwen/chuanranbingxuelunwen/2456166.html
最近更新
教材专著
