基于MaxEnt模型的突颊侧琵甲新疆潜在地理分布预测和主要影响因子分析

发布时间：2018-01-22 00:34

本文关键词： 突颊侧琵甲 MaxEnt模型草原虫害预测环境因子潜在地理分布　出处：《植物保护学报》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为有效预警和防控突颊侧琵甲Prosodes(Lioprosodes)dilaticollis Motschulsky发生,基于该物种分布数据、1950 2000年环境下生物气候数据和典型受害区土壤因子数据、气象数据等,采用MaxEnt模型对其在新疆的潜在地理分布及其主要影响因子进行预测和分析验证。结果表明:受试者工作特征曲线下面积(area under the ROC curve,AUC)都大于0.990,预测结果可靠。突颊侧琵甲的潜在分布区位于新疆天山一带,高、中度适生区分布在伊犁河谷草原和昌吉州玛纳斯县、呼图壁县草原及塔城地区沙湾县等地;刀切法得出降水量是影响其潜在地理分布的主要因素,特别是5、6、11、12月降水量的影响最大。该虫典型受害区的降水数据验证了分布概率响应曲线的准确性;土壤湿度在15%~30%范围时,30 cm处土壤湿度与虫口密度呈极显著弱正相关。表明降水作为影响草原土壤湿度、土壤含氧量的主要和直接因素,对不同生长期突颊侧琵甲生存起到重要作用。
[Abstract]:In order to effectively warn and control the occurrence of Prosodes(Lioprosodes)dilaticollis Motschulsky in the buccal side of the spoonbill. Based on the data of species distribution in 2000, bioclimatic data and soil factor data, meteorological data, etc. The potential geographical distribution in Xinjiang and its main influencing factors are predicted and analyzed by MaxEnt model. The results show that the area under the operating characteristic curve (. Area under the ROC curve. AUC) were all greater than 0.990, and the predicted results were reliable. The potential distribution area of the protruded buccal spoonbill was located in Tianshan area of Xinjiang, and the high and moderate suitable areas were located in the grassland of Yili River Valley and the Manas County of Changji. Hutubi prairie and Tacheng area Shawan County and other places; It is concluded that the precipitation is the main factor affecting the potential geographical distribution, especially in the case of 5Y6 / 11. The effect of precipitation on December was the biggest. The accuracy of the distribution probability response curve was verified by the precipitation data of typical affected areas of the insect. The correlation between soil moisture and insect density at 30 cm in the range of 15 ~ 30% of soil moisture was significantly and positively correlated, indicating that precipitation was the main and direct factor affecting soil moisture and soil oxygen content in steppe. It plays an important role in the survival of protuberant buccal spoonbill in different growth stages.
【作者单位】：新疆大学资源与环境科学学院;新疆维吾尔自治区治蝗灭鼠指挥部办公室;新疆昌吉州玛纳斯蝗虫鼠害预测预报防治站;
【基金】：新疆维吾尔自治区治蝗灭鼠指挥部办公室委托项目(211-62316) 新疆维吾尔自治区青年科技创新人才培养工程项目(2016)
【分类号】：S812.6
【正文快照】： 830001;3.新疆昌吉州玛纳斯蝗虫鼠害预测预报防治站,玛纳斯832200)新疆是我国荒漠半荒漠地区拟步甲分布最丰富的地区,占全国拟步甲总数的66.4%(任国栋等,1999)。黄人鑫等(2005)记录新疆拟步甲有230种。突颊侧琵甲Prosodes(Lioprosodes)dilaticollis Motschulsky隶属拟步甲科琵

【相似文献】