肉牛养殖市场风险变动及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-10 16:15

本文选题：市场风险 + 均值方差　；参考：《吉林农业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：肉牛产业是我国畜牧产业的重要组成部分,中国在改革开放到加入WTO后,随着经济的发展人们生活水平提高,人民对牛肉及牛肉制品从量到质需求逐渐增多,肉牛养殖业的持续稳定发展是满足牛肉及其制品需求的重要基石,而减少肉牛养殖市场风险则是确保肉牛养殖稳定发展的关键。因此,肉牛养殖市场风险的预防及控制是摆在肉牛养殖者和政府管理部门面前的重要问题。本文主要采用统计分析、文献分析法和均值-方差分析法,分析我国1995年至2015年全国肉牛养殖的成本与利润状况与变动趋势,根据相关风险及风险管理理论和畜牧业理论,研究肉牛养殖的市场风险状况、变动趋势及其影响因素,为肉牛产业链条上的相关主体和准备对肉牛养殖产业投资的潜在投资者提供理论参考和决策依据,帮助其提高风险的防控与应变能力,同时也为政府部门在制定有关农产品风险防控政策提供对策建议。本文一共分为五个部分:第一部分是绪论,主要阐述问题研究背景和研究意义,第二部分是对风险及市场风险等概念的阐述及其应用理论进行说明。第三部分是分析我国近二十年间,肉牛养殖市场风险的内涵及其变动情况。对肉牛养殖市场风险的历史变动进行分析,一方面解析肉牛养殖市场风险的内涵及特点,通过其含义对肉牛市场风险的基本成因做分析;另一方面根据养殖市场风险的成因提出风险衡量指标。第四部分是分析肉牛养殖市场风险的影响因素,从肉牛供给与需求、饲料供应、仔畜供求、疫病防控、国际市场变动等方面分析肉牛养殖市场风险的变化。第五部分是根据三、四部分的分析对提高肉牛养殖市场风险的防控能力提供有效的对策建议。研究发现,目前我国肉牛养殖市场风险较低,国内对肉牛需求正在逐步增加,适合养殖者继续投资该行业。建议养殖者努力做到规模化、标准化经营,积极参加合作经济组织。政府方面加强基础设施建设,增加风险补贴,设置肉牛养殖业政策性保险产品,规范肉牛养殖市场。
[Abstract]:Beef cattle industry is an important part of China's livestock industry. After China's reform and opening up to the WTO, with the development of the economy, people's living standards have improved, and the people's demand for beef and beef products from quantity to quality has gradually increased.The sustainable and stable development of beef breeding industry is an important cornerstone to meet the demand of beef and its products, and reducing the market risk of beef breeding is the key to ensure the stable development of beef breeding.Therefore, the prevention and control of market risk is an important problem for cattle breeders and government management departments.In this paper, statistical analysis, literature analysis and mean-variance analysis are used to analyze the cost and profit status and changing trend of beef cattle breeding in China from 1995 to 2015, according to the related risk and risk management theory and animal husbandry theory.This paper studies the market risk situation, changing trend and influencing factors of beef cattle breeding, and provides theoretical reference and decision basis for the related subjects in beef cattle industry chain and potential investors preparing to invest in beef cattle farming industry.It helps to improve the ability of prevention and control of risks and provides suggestions for government departments to formulate policies on risk prevention and control of agricultural products.This paper is divided into five parts: the first part is the introduction, mainly expounds the research background and research significance, the second part is to explain the concept of risk and market risk and its application theory.The third part is to analyze the connotation and change of beef cattle market risk in recent twenty years.This paper analyzes the historical changes of the market risk of beef cattle breeding. On the one hand, it analyzes the connotation and characteristics of the market risk of beef cattle culture, and analyzes the basic causes of the market risk of beef cattle through its meaning.On the other hand, according to the causes of risk in aquaculture market, the risk measurement index is put forward.The fourth part is to analyze the influencing factors of market risk of beef cattle breeding, and analyze the changes of market risk of beef cattle breeding from the aspects of beef supply and demand, feed supply, supply and demand of young animals, epidemic disease prevention and control, changes of international market, etc.The fifth part is based on the analysis of three and four parts to improve the market risk prevention and control of beef cattle to provide effective countermeasures.It is found that the market risk of beef breeding in China is low and the domestic demand for beef cattle is increasing step by step, which is suitable for farmers to continue to invest in this industry.Farmers are advised to work hard to achieve scale, standardized management, and actively participate in cooperative economic organizations.The government has strengthened infrastructure construction, increased risk subsidies, set up policy insurance products for beef farming, and standardized beef breeding markets.
【学位授予单位】：吉林农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.3

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