中国肉类产量变量特征及因素贡献分解研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 06:13

本文选题：肉类 + 出栏量　；参考：《世界农业》2017年06期

【摘要】：本文采用1990—2014年全国和各省份肉类产量数据,在分析肉类产量和结构变化的基础上,运用LMDI方法将肉类生产变化分解为单产和出栏量两个方面,计算了全国和省域两个层面各畜禽品种单产和出栏量对肉类产量的贡献。结果表明:1990年以来中国肉类产量增幅较大,年均增长率达到了4.7%;从肉类产量构成上看,猪肉产量最高,但占中国肉类产量的比重呈下降趋势,其次是禽肉产量,牛羊肉产量相对较小,但保持了较快的增长态势;出栏量增加对肉类产量增加量贡献了92.9%,单产贡献相对较小,仅为7.1%;生猪出栏量对中国肉类产量增加量贡献最大,占肉类产量增加量的56.4%,其次为禽类出栏量的贡献,占肉类产量增加量的23.1%,其他品种出栏量和单产对肉类产量增加量的贡献均相对较小;各省份肉类产量以及产量增加量存在较大的差异,山东和河南两省肉类产量占中国肉类产量比重较高且增产速度较快;多数省份肉类产量增加量以出栏量贡献为主,且以生猪出栏量贡献为主。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of meat production in China and provinces from 1990 to 2014, and based on the analysis of meat yield and structure change, the paper uses LMDI method to decompose meat production into two aspects: unit yield and output. The contribution to meat yield of livestock and poultry varieties at national and provincial levels was calculated. The results show that the increase of meat production in China has been great since 1990, and the average annual growth rate has reached 4.7.The pork production is the highest in terms of the composition of meat production, but the proportion of meat production in China is decreasing, followed by poultry production. The output of beef and mutton is relatively small, but it has maintained a relatively rapid growth trend; the increase in the amount of beef and mutton has contributed 92.9% to the increase in meat production, while the contribution to the unit yield is relatively small, only 7.1%; the pig output has contributed the most to the increase in meat production in China. It accounted for 56.4% of the increase of meat yield, followed by the contribution of poultry output, and the increase of meat yield was 23.1. the contribution of other varieties and per unit production to meat yield was relatively small. There are great differences in meat production and increase of meat production in different provinces. Shandong and Henan provinces have a higher proportion of meat production in China and the increase rate is faster, and most provinces mainly contribute to the increase of meat output. And the main contribution to pig production.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：农业部和财政部项目“国家绒毛用羊产业技术体系产业经济研究”(CARS-40-20)
【分类号】：F326.3

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