空气污染对心脑血管疾病门诊量影响的Poisson广义可加模型分析

发布时间：2018-02-28 09:46

本文关键词： 心脑血管疾病广义可加模型 Poisson回归大气污染物　出处：《中国卫生统计》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的定量研究潍坊市大气污染对居民心脑血管日门诊量的影响,探讨大气污染与门诊量之间的关系,为心脑血管疾病的预防控制提供依据。方法通过潍坊市社保系统收集每日心脑血管疾病门诊量,从中国气象局收集气象资料,大气污染资料来源于潍坊市环境监测站。采用Poisson广义可加模型对潍坊市大气污染与心脑血管疾病门诊量进行回归分析,同时控制气象因素、时间趋势、周日效应混杂因素的影响。结果 2015年潍坊市空气中PM 2.5、PM 10、SO_2、NO_2的日均浓度分别为75.33μg/m~3、126.25μg/m~3、41.25μg/m~3、38.17μg/m~3;潍坊市心脑血管疾病日门诊量586人次/天;Spearman相关分析结果表明,温度和降雨量与空气污染指标存在较强相关性。单因素广义可加模型(GAM)时序分析结果显示,温度、降雨量、PM 2.5、PM 10、SO_2、NO_2对心脑血管疾病门诊量有影响;多因素分析显示,PM 2.5、PM 10、SO_2、NO_2日均浓度每增加10μg/m~3,心脑血管疾病门诊量的风险RR值分别增加0.27%(0.20%~0.53%)、0.35%(0.10%~0.61%)、0.69%(0.50%~0.89%)、0.39%(0.04%~0.75%)。结论潍坊市大气污染能增加心脑血管疾病门诊量的风险,温度和降雨量与大气污染物相关性较高,提示采暖期污染程度明显加重,有必要开展相应的治理措施。
[Abstract]:Objective to study quantitatively the effect of air pollution on the daily outpatient volume of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Weifang City, and to explore the relationship between air pollution and the number of outpatients. Methods through the social security system of Weifang City, the daily outpatient data of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were collected, and the meteorological data were collected from the China Meteorological Bureau. The data of air pollution come from Weifang environmental monitoring station. Using Poisson generalized additive model, the regression analysis of air pollution and cardio-cerebrovascular disease outpatient is carried out in Weifang city, and the meteorological factors and time trend are controlled. Results in 2015, the average daily concentration of PM 2.5g / day in the air of Weifang city was 75.33 渭 g / m ~ (-1) ~ 3126.25 渭 g / m ~ (3) 渭 g / m ~ (3) ~ (-1) ~ 31.25 渭 g / m ~ (3) 渭 g 路min ~ (3) ~ (-1) ~ 38.17 渭 g 路m ~ (3) respectively, and the result of Spearman correlation analysis showed that the daily number of patients with heart diseases was 586 / day in Weifang City. Temperature and rainfall have strong correlation with air pollution index. The results of single factor generalized additive model (GAM) time series analysis show that temperature and rainfall (PM 2.5) PM10 / so _ 2 / no _ 2 have an effect on the number of outpatients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Multivariate analysis showed that for every 10 渭 g / m-1 increase in the average daily concentration of PM2.5 / PM10 / kg / kg / d, the RR value of cardio-cerebrovascular disease outpatient was increased by 0.27 / 0.20 / 0.53 and 0.35 / 0.10 / 0 / 0. 61 / 0.690.500.390.390.394 / 0.750.Conclusion Atmospheric pollution in Weifang City can increase the risk of outpatient diagnosis of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, conclusion the atmospheric pollution in Weifang City can increase the risk of outpatient diagnosis of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. The correlation between temperature and rainfall is higher than that of atmospheric pollutants, which indicates that the pollution degree is obviously aggravated during heating period, so it is necessary to carry out corresponding treatment measures.
【作者单位】：潍坊医学院"健康山东"重大社会风险预测与治理协同创新中心;潍坊阳光融合医院;
【基金】：“健康山东”重大社会风险预测与治理协同创新中心资助课题(XT1405003) 山东省自然基金项目(ZR2014AQ020,ZR2015HL101)
【分类号】：R54;R743

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