分析师预测与中国上市公司股权融资成本

发布时间：2018-03-18 15:37

本文选题：分析师预测　切入点：股权融资成本　出处：《吉林财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展,上市公司面临股权融资成本高,盈利能力低的问题。如何降低上市公司股权融资成本一直是党和国家关心的问题。作为资本市场中介的分析师是连接投资者和上市公司的纽带。国外学者研究发现分析师预测对上市公司融资具有真实效应。本文研究的目的是我国分析师预测能否降低上市公司股权融资成本。本文主要采用理论分析和实证分析相结合的研究方法。在理论分析中,本文在资本市场中介理论、有效市场假说和行为金融学中的羊群效应等理论的基础上分析了分析师预测降低股权融资成本的三条路径。在实证分析中,本文选取沪深两市1419个上市公司作为样本进行研究,建立两个回归模型分别研究分析师预测和明星分析师预测对股权融资成本的影响。上市公司股权融资成本的计算并没有采用国外惯用的折现模型,而是沿用了目前国内主流的计算方法即先找到影响股权融资成本的各因素,再将各因素的数值加总求和。分析师预测及其他变量的数据来自国泰安数据库、Wind数据库和朝阳永续数据库。本文选择用分析师预测报告的份数作为衡量分析师预测数量的指标,用分析师预测的准确度作为衡量分析师预测质量的指标。多元线性回归的结果表明,在控制机构投资者持股比例、偿债能力、公司规模、盈利能力、换手率、贝塔值、账市比、财务杠杆变量后,分析师预测与股权融资成本呈负相关关系即我国分析师预测的确会使上市公司股权融资成本降低。其中,明星分析师预测对股权融资成本的解释程度更好,效果更加显著。这说明我国分析师预测对上市公司股权融资成本也产生了真实效应。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, listed companies are faced with high cost of equity financing. The problem of low profitability. How to reduce the cost of equity financing of listed companies has always been the concern of the party and the state. As a capital market intermediary, analysts are the link between investors and listed companies. The purpose of this paper is to study whether the cost of equity financing of listed companies can be reduced. This paper mainly uses the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to study whether the cost of equity financing of listed companies can be reduced. In theoretical analysis, Based on the theories of capital market intermediation, efficient market hypothesis and herding in behavioral finance, this paper analyzes three ways for analysts to predict the cost of equity financing. In this paper, 1419 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are selected as samples. Two regression models are established to study the impact of analyst forecast and star analyst prediction on the cost of equity financing. The calculation of the cost of equity financing of listed companies does not use the discounted model commonly used in foreign countries. Instead, we have adopted the current domestic mainstream calculation method, that is, to find out the factors that affect the cost of equity financing first. The data of the analyst forecast and other variables come from the Cathay Tai'an database and Chaoyang Sustainable Database. This paper chooses the number of the analyst forecast report as the index to measure the analyst forecast quantity. Multiple linear regression results show that, in controlling institutional investors' shareholding ratio, solvency, company size, profitability, turnover rate, beta value, book-market ratio, After the financial leverage variable, there is a negative correlation between the analyst forecast and the cost of equity financing, that is, the analyst forecast of our country will indeed reduce the cost of equity financing of listed companies, among which, the star analyst forecast has a better explanation for the cost of equity financing. The effect is more remarkable. This shows that the Chinese analysts' forecast has a real effect on the cost of equity financing of listed companies.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

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