房地产供应链成本构成及对房价的推动机理研究

发布时间：2018-03-29 13:57

本文选题：房地产供应链成本　切入点：成本动因　出处：《北京交通大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：持续暴涨的房价,无疑是近年来最受全社会关注、攸关经济民生的重大问题。对于房价问题的研究,人们首先归结于高额的地价、沉重的税负等,事实上,推高房价的不仅是计入房地产开发成本中的显性支出,还包括房地产供应链上由于各个节点之间错综复杂的利益关系及利益分配不均带来的高额交易成本和其它隐形成本。甚至,促使这些交易或隐形成本产生的机制才是推动房价上涨的动因。本文立足于房地产供应链视角,在对我国房地产供应链结构及特点分析的基础上,以供应链成本研究为出发点,辨别我国房地产供应链运行中产生的大量显性和隐性成本,分析成本动因对供应链成本及房价的推动机理,最终建立房地产供应链成本控制机制。研究的理论意义在于从供应链视角,为房地产供应链成本管理和房价控制设计一个新的理论框架,同时,为优化房地产供应链结构、促进各主体间的信任与合作,减少成本溢出、控制房价、提高供应链顾客价值提供有益的分析途径和方法。本文在参考大量的文献资料的基础上,首先,对我国房地产供应链结构及特点进行分析：基于商品物流理论,建立了由实物链、资金链和信息链组成的我国房地产供应链网络模型,分析了房地产供应链各个环节中物资、资金和信息的流动状态,探讨房地产供应链不同于其它产业的特点。其次,研究了我国房地产供应链成本构成并进行聚类分析：在房地产供应链成本属性及结构体系的分析框架之上,建立成本构成的四维结构。第一维按照成本发生的维度分为生产维度和关系维度成本；第二维按照成本要素属性分为人力、资产、物力、自然资源、运输、时间、信息成本等类型,第三维按照成本流动的载体分为物流、资金流和信息流成本,最后按照成本发生的阶段分为投入方、生产方、流通方和消费方成本。分析房地产供应链核心流程,按其工作结构分析所产生的成本项目,对成本按照不同属性和阶段进行归类,建立房地产供应链成本聚类结构。第三,研究了房地产供应链成本动因及对供应链成本和房价的推动机理：在明确房地产供应链成本与房地产价格之间密切关系的前提下,找出各个阶段影响成本的动因,在成本动因和房地产价格之间建立因果回路图模型,通过形成的各种反馈回路,将影响房地产供应链成本及房价的关键动因集中到5个方面：①金融机构的影响；②地方政府的影响；③供应链其他合作伙伴的影响；④开发商联盟的影响；⑤消费者投资投机的影响。针对以上5个方面,分别采用因果回路图、现实分析和博弈分析的方式,递进论证5类成本动因对房地产供应链成本及房价的影响机理。第四,对房地产供应链关键成本动因与房价之间的关系进行实证分析,应用计量经济学中的协整检验以及一元回归模型,选取我国房地产供应链中的主要成本动因：土地价格、土地出让金占地方财政收入比例、房地产企业获得的银行贷款、基准贷款利率、百强房地产企业产值占房地产企业全部产值比例及房地产投机度进行实证分析,检验证明了房地产企业获得的银行贷款对房地产价格的影响作用最强,其次是土地价格、土地出让金占地方财政收入的比例和人民币基准利率,反映房地产市场投资投机现象的投机度与房地产价格变化之间保持形似的变化趋势,房地产行业百强企业的市场份额对房地产价格有很强的促进作用。最后,进行了房地产供应链成本控制机制研究：结合房地产供应链运行中存在的问题,提出对房地产供应链成本控制机制设计的原则和思路,根据房地产供应链所处的环境以及供应链自身特点,从房地产供应链外部制度建设和内部机制建设两个方面加以完善,提出控制房地产供应链成本从而降低房价和提高顾客价值的具体措施。
[Abstract]:The soaring housing prices, is undoubtedly the most popular in recent years the attention of the whole society, economy and people's livelihood. The vital problem for the study of housing prices, people first attributed to the high price, the heavy tax burden, in fact, pushing up prices not only is included in the cost of real estate development in the dominant expenditure, including supply chain real estate due to high transaction costs between each node and the distribution of interests of the interests of perplexing due to unbalanced and other hidden costs. Even, make these transactions or hidden costs generated mechanism is the reason to promote the housing prices. This paper is based on the real estate supply chain perspective, based on the analysis of China's real estate supply chain the structure and characteristics of the supply chain cost, in order to study as a starting point, which distinguish China's real estate supply chain in the operation of a large number of explicit and implicit costs, cost driver analysis on Supply Chain The promoting mechanism of costs and prices, the final establishment of the real estate supply chain cost control mechanism. The theoretical significance is from the perspective of supply chain, real estate supply chain cost management and price control to design a new theoretical framework, at the same time, in order to optimize the real estate supply chain structure, promoting trust and cooperation among various subjects. To reduce the cost of overflow, control prices, provide analysis ways and methods useful to improve supply chain customer value.
Based on lots of literatures, first of all, on China's real estate supply chain structure and characteristics were analyzed: Based on theory of commodity logistics, established by the real chain, capital chain and information chain of China's real estate supply chain network model, analyses the material real estate supply chain. Flow of capital and information, to explore the supply chain of real estate characteristics different from other industries. Secondly, the study of China's real estate supply chain cost structure and clustering analysis: on the analysis framework of real estate supply chain cost attribute and structure system, establish the four-dimensional structure of cost structure. The first dimension according to the cost the dimension and relational dimension is divided into production cost; the second dimension of human attributes according to the cost, assets, resources, natural resources, transportation, time, cost and other types of information, according to the third dimension The carrier flow into the logistics, capital flow and information flow cost, according to the final cost of the stage is divided into investment, production, circulation and consumption cost. The analysis of the real estate supply chain core process, according to the analysis of the cost structure of project cost according to different attributes and stage classification the establishment of the real estate, the cost of supply chain cluster structure. Third, the real estate supply chain cost driver and driving mechanism of supply chain costs and prices: between clear real estate supply chain cost and the price of real estate under the premise of close relationship, to find out the impact of cost drivers in each stage, establish a causal loop diagram model in between cost and price of real estate, through the formation of a variety of feedback loop will influence the key factors of the real estate supply chain costs and prices to focus on 5 aspects: the influence of financial institutions; The influence of the local government; the effect of supply chain partners; the influence of developers alliance; impact consumer investment and speculation. In view of the above 5 aspects, respectively using causal loop diagram analysis, practical analysis and game mode, 5 types of cost drivers demonstrated progressive impact on the supply chain cost and price of real estate mechanism. Fourth, empirical analysis of the relationship between the key motivation and supply chain cost of real estate prices, using econometric cointegration test and regression model, select the main cost of the supply chain of China's real estate in the reasons: land prices, land transfer payments accounted for the proportion of local fiscal revenue, the real estate enterprises the bank loans, the benchmark lending rate, the empirical analysis of 100 real estate enterprise value of real estate enterprises of all output proportion and the degree of real estate speculation, real estate inspection certificate The strongest production enterprises to obtain bank loans to real estate prices, followed by the price of land, land leasing accounted for the proportion of local revenue and the benchmark interest rate, keep the change trend between the shape of the reflection of the real estate market investment speculation speculation and changes in real estate prices, the real estate industry hundred enterprises market share has a positive effect on the real estate price. Finally, the real estate supply chain cost control mechanism research: combining the existing supply chain of real estate problems in operation, put forward to the real estate supply chain into the ideas and principles of design of the control system, according to the real estate supply chain environment and the supply chain itself the characteristics and improvement measures from two aspects of real estate outside the supply chain system construction and internal mechanism construction, put forward to control the real estate supply chain so as to reduce the cost of housing and Specific measures for high customer value.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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