贸易成本对我国粮食进口需求的影响

发布时间：2018-05-20 09:14

本文选题：粮食 + 贸易成本　；参考：《南方农业学报》2017年11期

【摘要】：【目的】实证分析贸易成本对我国粮食进口需求函数短期及长期的影响,从贸易成本角度为我国粮食安全、粮食生产及粮食对外贸易等提供理论借鉴。【方法】在马歇尔需求函数的基础上加入贸易成本因素,构建我国粮食进口需求函数,并基于1993~2015年粮食进口数据,对传统进口需求函数和加入贸易成本变量的进口需求函数进行实证分析。【结果】我国粮食进口需求对收入、相对价格和贸易成本均具有长期和短期协整关系。从长期来看,贸易成本对我国大豆进口需求的影响变化较大,而对小麦、玉米和大米的进口需求影响较小;从短期来看,贸易成本对我国各类粮食进口需求的影响程度较大,尤其是对玉米和大豆的进口需求影响尤为显著。【建议】处理好粮食进口与国家粮食安全的关系;降低粮食生产成本,更好地满足国内粮食需求;实施粮食进口多元化策略,分散粮食进口集中度;降低贸易成本,更好地利用国际粮食市场,以满足国内粮食供需缺口。
[Abstract]:[objective] to analyze the impact of trade cost on the demand function of grain import in China in the short and long term. [methods] based on Marshall's demand function, this paper introduces the trade cost factor to construct the grain import demand function of our country, and based on the grain import data from 1993 to 2015, it provides theoretical reference for grain production and grain foreign trade. This paper analyzes the traditional import demand function and the import demand function with the variable of trade cost. [results] China's grain import demand has long-term and short-term cointegration relationship to income, relative price and trade cost. In the long run, the impact of trade costs on China's soybean import demand is greater than on wheat, corn and rice import demand. In the short run, trade costs have a greater impact on China's import demand for all kinds of grain. In particular, the impact on the import demand of corn and soybeans is particularly significant. [recommendations] deal well with the relationship between grain imports and national food security; reduce the cost of grain production and better meet domestic food demand; and implement a strategy of diversification of grain imports. Dispersing grain import concentration, reducing trade cost and making better use of international grain market to meet the gap of domestic grain supply and demand.
【作者单位】：东北农业大学经济管理学院;东北石油大学财务处;
【基金】：黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(17JYE399,16JYB19)
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.61

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