基于系统动力学的工程项目成本控制方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-28 05:58

本文选题：成本控制 + 系统动力学　；参考：《华东交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济全球化是世界发展的必然趋势，受国际公司的冲击，我国建筑市场的竞争愈发激烈。合理的控制成本以获得经济利益最大化，既是企业追求的目标，也是其生存和发展的根本。对于大型的工程建设项目来说，其成本管理是一个复杂的过程，仅凭经验来控制成本的时代已经过去了，施工各阶段影响成本的因素都是相互联系的，综合考虑影响成本的各因素，用系统、动态的方法对项目进行成本控制是需要深入研究的一个方向。在对建设项目成本控制的理论及方法探索过程中，以往的研究以理论指导为主，缺乏定量的分析。系统动力学方法已广泛应用到社会各个领域，，在建设项目的风险管理方面也已取得一定的研究成果，然而，在建设项目成本控制中的系统应用尚未展开研究。基于此，本文尝试将系统动力学的建模方法与建设项目成本控制的相关理论结合，在对建设项目成本控制系统的模型建立方面进行了一定研究。文章首先用系统动力学方法解决问题的思路，对成本控制系统中的主要因素进行分析。以成本偏差反馈环、进度偏差反馈环为两条主线，进行成本影响因素分析；并以返工率的形式将质量目标囊括到成本控制综合系统中去，应用AHP的方法对本文案例中极具代表性的冲击钻孔桩的施工过程进行风险分析，识别主要风险事故为断桩与成孔不圆，其发生对返工率的影响占60%。其次，基于之前的分析，针对建设项目采用鱼骨图的方法从人、材、机、方法、环境五方面来识别系统中的主要变量，根据工程建设项目的实际情况，确定内生变量、外生变量以及可忽略因素；从系统中的成本偏差反馈环、进度偏差反馈环这两条线出发，建立整个成本控制系统的一个模型。最后选取了八盘峡黄河特大桥主桥墩的水下基础工程施工过程作为实证研究对象，通过资料收集与处理，对模型中所需要的参数进行处理估算，并建立所有变量间的方程式,运用VensimPLE软件，进行仿真模拟，验证应用系统动力学的方法进行建设项目系统的成本控制是可行的。
[Abstract]:Economic globalization is the inevitable trend of the world development. The competition of our country's construction market is becoming more and more fierce because of the impact of international companies. Reasonable cost control to maximize economic benefits is not only the goal pursued by enterprises, but also the root of its survival and development. For large construction projects, cost management is a complex process. The era of cost control by experience alone has passed, and the factors that affect the cost in every stage of construction are interrelated. Considering all the factors that affect the cost, it is necessary to study the cost control of the project by systematic and dynamic methods. In the course of exploring the theory and method of construction project cost control, the previous research is based on theoretical guidance and lacks of quantitative analysis. The method of system dynamics has been widely used in various fields of society and has made some achievements in risk management of construction projects. However, the system application in cost control of construction projects has not been studied. Based on this, this paper attempts to combine the modeling method of system dynamics with the related theory of construction project cost control, and does some research on the modeling of construction project cost control system. In this paper, the main factors of cost control system are analyzed by using the method of system dynamics to solve the problem. Taking cost deviation feedback loop and schedule deviation feedback loop as two main lines, the cost influencing factors are analyzed, and the quality target is included in the cost control integrated system in the form of rework rate. In this paper, AHP method is used to analyze the risk of the construction process of the typical impact bored pile in this paper, and the main risk accidents are identified as broken pile and non-circular hole, and the influence of the occurrence of the pile on the rework rate accounts for 60%. Secondly, based on the previous analysis, the method of fish bone map is used to identify the main variables in the system from five aspects: human, material, machine, method and environment. According to the actual situation of the project, the endogenous variables are determined. Based on the two lines of cost deviation feedback loop and schedule deviation feedback loop, a model of the whole cost control system is established. Finally, the underwater foundation engineering construction process of the main pier of the Yellow River Superbridge in Bafangxia is selected as the empirical research object. Through the data collection and processing, the parameters needed in the model are processed and estimated, and the equations between all variables are established. By using VensimPLE software, the simulation is carried out to verify that it is feasible to control the cost of the construction project system by applying the method of system dynamics.
【学位授予单位】：华东交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：N941.3

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