中国农业碳排放绩效评价及随机性收敛研究——基于SBM-Undesirable模型与面板单位根检验

发布时间：2018-06-19 10:34

本文选题：农业碳排放 + 碳排放绩效　；参考：《中国生态农业学报》2017年09期

【摘要】：当前,全局层面及工业视角下的碳排放绩效评价和收敛性分析已趋于成熟,但农业碳排放方面的研究尚十分薄弱。为补充相关研究,对区域农业碳排放总量、绩效及两者的收敛趋势有更清晰的认识,本文在测算2000—2014年我国30个省市农业碳排放总量的基础上,运用SBM-Undesirable模型计算农业碳排放绩效,并通过面板单位根检验方法对全国和各区域的农业碳排放总量及绩效进行了随机性收敛检验。结果显示:1)2000—2014年间,全国农业碳排放量整体呈递增趋势,但各区域排放量差异明显。比较中部与全国、东部和西部各年总量均值,发现2000年的差值分别为3.357 4?106 t,3.965 0?106 t和5.904 7?106 t,到2014年,差距扩大至5.244 8?106 t,7.351 2?106 t和7.681 0?106 t,对应增长比例分别为56.2%、85.4%和30.0%。2)各区域农业碳排放绩效存在显著差异。绩效均值折线图显示,东部平均绩效较高,15年来基本稳定在0.8左右;西部和中部绩效均值较低,绝大多数年份处于0.3~0.5,但西部不断改善,中部则持续下降。3)对总量进行收敛性检验,发现全国、西部、中部呈现明显的随机性分异,仅东部出现随机性趋同;在绩效的收敛性检验中,全国范围内不存在随机性收敛,但东部、中部、西部各自呈俱乐部式随机性收敛态势。随机性收敛检验结果表明,中国农业碳排放总量和绩效不会自动降低到稳态水平,有必要进行相关政策干预,以缩小各省市间的差距。本研究为制定区域间差异化和区域内统一性农业减排政策奠定了基础。
[Abstract]:At present, the performance evaluation and convergence analysis of carbon emissions from the global level and industry perspective have become mature, but the research on agricultural carbon emissions is still very weak. In order to supplement the relevant research and have a clearer understanding of the total amount, performance and convergence trend of regional agricultural carbon emissions, this paper estimates the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2014. The performance of agricultural carbon emissions was calculated by SBM-Undesirable model, and the aggregate and performance of agricultural carbon emissions in China and various regions were tested by panel root test method. The results show that from 2000 to 2014, the total carbon emissions of agriculture in China were increasing, but the differences between regions were obvious. Compared with the national, eastern and western regions, the difference between 2000 and 2000 was 3.357 4106t / t 3.9650t / 106t and 5.904 7 / 106t respectively, and the difference was 5.904 7106t in the year of 2014, compared with the average of the national, eastern and western parts of the country. The gap was expanded to 5.244 ~ 106t / 106t ~ 7.351t / 106t and 7.681 ~ 100t / 106t respectively. The corresponding increase rates were 56.2% and 30.010% respectively) there were significant differences in the performance of agricultural carbon emissions among different regions. The average performance curve shows that the average performance of the eastern region is relatively high, which is basically stable at around 0.8 in the past 15 years, while the average performance of the western and central regions is lower than that of the western and central regions, and most of the years are at 0.30.5, but the western regions are improving continuously. On the other hand, in the middle part, the convergence test of the total amount is carried out, and it is found that the whole country, the west and the middle of the country show obvious randomness differentiation, and only the eastern part has the same randomicity, but in the convergence test of performance, there is no random convergence in the whole country, and there is no random convergence in the whole country. However, the eastern, central and western regions show club-style stochastic convergence. The results of stochastic convergence test show that the total amount and performance of agricultural carbon emissions in China will not automatically decrease to the steady state level. It is necessary to carry out relevant policy interventions to narrow the gap between provinces and cities. This study laid a foundation for the formulation of regional differentiation and regional unity of agricultural emission reduction policy.
【作者单位】：四川农业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(16CJL35) 四川省社科规划项目统计发展专项(17TJ053)资助~~
【分类号】：F323;X82

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