轨道交通对出行方式选择的影响研究——基于上海市80后微观调查样本的实证分析

发布时间：2018-10-04 23:12

【摘要】：评估轨道交通绩效的一个重要方面是考察轨道交通可达性的提高能否促进居民交通行为转变,尤其是减轻对小汽车的依赖。目前的研究结论不尽一致,且研究中存在的自选择问题尚没有引起足够的重视。基于2013年上海市80后群体的微观调查数据,分析轨道交通可达性对城市居民交通方式选择(小汽车购买和使用以及轨道交通使用)的影响,并利用样本的异质性来克服轨道交通可达性与交通行为之间的自选择。研究发现:居民居住区周边轨道交通可达性的提高,确实能够显著地降低家庭小汽车的拥有概率,并提高乘坐地铁通勤的可能性;但不能找到轨道交通可达性的提高会减少小汽车使用的证据。
[Abstract]:An important aspect of evaluating the performance of rail transit is to investigate whether the improvement of the accessibility of rail transit can promote the change of residents' traffic behavior, especially the reduction of dependence on cars. The current research results are not consistent, and the self-selection problem has not been paid enough attention to. Based on the microcosmic survey data of post-80s population in Shanghai in 2013, this paper analyzes the impact of rail transit accessibility on urban residents' choice of transportation modes (car purchase and use and rail transit use). The heterogeneity of samples is used to overcome the self-selection between reachability and traffic behavior of rail transit. It is found that the improvement of the accessibility of rail transit in residential areas can significantly reduce the probability of owning family cars and improve the possibility of commuting by subway. But failure to find evidence that improved rail accessibility reduces car use.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心;华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院;成都棠湖外国语学校;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41471139) 教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790012) 上海哲学社会科学规划课题(2014BCK003)
【分类号】：F572.88;F713.55

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