时间压力下序贯决策研究进展——基于TAM扩展框架的评述

发布时间：2018-04-29 01:37

本文选题：决策理论 + 序贯决策　；参考：《经济管理》2013年08期

【摘要】：序贯决策代表了一大类决策问题,包括救灾决策、工作搜索、股票操作等,这类问题内生的时间压力使得"观望"和"跟随"策略不再适用。"截止日期"、"机会成本"带给决策者的不仅是时间压力,还迫使他们转向直觉决策,随之产生系统性可预见性偏差。本文通过文献梳理发现,时间压力下的序贯决策行为还存在亟需解决的问题:时间压力的影响机理还不清楚。主要原因在于缺乏统一的分析框架,孤立考察时间压力在特定问题情境下的影响,没有揭示作用的机理。因此,本文扩展了TAM框架,提出了"心理——行为——结果"的系统分析框架,对时间压力下的序贯决策研究文献进行梳理和回顾,结果表明,基于TAM扩展框架进行研究有助于揭示时间压力的影响机理。最后,文章为下一步的工作指出了有潜力的方向及研究方法。
[Abstract]:Sequential decision making represents a broad set of decision making problems, including disaster relief decisions, job searches, stock operations, and so on. The inherent time pressure of these problems makes "wait-and-see" and "follow" strategies no longer applicable. " Deadline, "opportunity cost" not only puts time pressure on decision makers, but also forces them to turn to intuitional decisions, resulting in systematic predictability bias. In this paper, it is found that there are still some problems to be solved for sequential decision making under time pressure: the influence mechanism of time pressure is not clear. The main reason lies in the lack of a unified analytical framework and the isolation of the influence of time pressure on a given situation without revealing the mechanism of action. Therefore, this paper extends the TAM framework and puts forward a systematic analysis framework of "Psychological Behavioral outcome", which combs and reviews the literature on sequential decision making under time pressure. The results show that, The research based on TAM extended framework is helpful to reveal the influence mechanism of time pressure. Finally, the paper points out the potential direction and research methods for the next step.
【作者单位】：西北大学经济管理学院;西安工程大学管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科青年基金“序贯决策中时间压力对决策行为的影响研究”(11YJC630217) 中国博士后基金“时间压力、选项数量对序贯决策行为的影响:基于工作搜索的实验”(2011M501455)
【分类号】：C934

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