全面二孩政策对人口与就业的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-11 20:02

本文关键词： 全面二孩生育政策人口就业　出处：《中国人力资源开发》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于云南省2010年第六次人口普查数据进行人口预测,通过对比2011-2015年期间的实际人口数据和预测数据得出一个修正系数,并以此为参照将2016年的人口预测结果进行适当地修正作为人口预测基础数据。结果表明:云南自全面二孩生育政策实施,将在5年后的时间达到人口出生高峰,此后人口增长趋于减缓,并在2045年左右进入人口负增长阶段。劳动力人口规模在2026年以前持续增长,此后开始下降,劳动力人口抚养负担增加。"全面二孩"生育政策虽然在一定程度上缓解了人口老龄化速度,但并不能从根本上扭转人口老龄化的发展趋势,还需从社会制度层面解决人口老龄化问题。全面二孩政策放开带来的短期出生人口高峰,刺激了新的消费需求、扩大了城市就业空间,但也不可避免地对个体职业生涯规划产生影响,尤其是女性职工在事业发展方面可能会受到明显的阻碍作用,育龄女性劳动者完成生育后再次集中进入劳动力市场重新择业,女性就业岗位开发、就业培训和就业服务等给人力资源和社会保障部门提出了严峻挑战。
[Abstract]:Based on the 6th census data of Yunnan province in 2010, a revised coefficient is obtained by comparing the actual population data and the forecast data for the period 2011-2015. Taking this as a reference, the population forecast results of 2016 are appropriately revised as the basic data of population forecast. The results show that the implementation of Yunnan's comprehensive policy on two-child birth will reach the peak of population in five years' time. Since then, population growth has slowed, and has reached a negative growth stage around 2045. The size of the labour force continued to grow until 2026, and has since begun to decline. Although the "comprehensive two-child" fertility policy to some extent alleviates the aging rate of the population, it cannot fundamentally reverse the development trend of the aging population. It is also necessary to solve the problem of aging population from the social system level. The new consumption demand has been stimulated and the urban employment space has been expanded because of the short term birth population peak brought about by the opening up of the policy of comprehensive two-child policy. However, it will inevitably have an impact on the individual career planning, especially when female workers and staff members may be obviously hindered in their career development. After finishing childbearing, female workers of childbearing age will again concentrate on re-entering the labour market and choosing new jobs. Female employment development, employment training and employment services pose severe challenges to human resources and social security departments.
【作者单位】：曲靖师范学院法律与公共管理学院;云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院;
【基金】：2017年国家社会科学基金项目西部项目“中越边境非法跨境通婚对人口安全影响研究”(17XRK005)项目资助
【分类号】：C924.21

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