基于BMA方法的资源禀赋与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 09:39

本文关键词： 资源禀赋资源诅咒模型不确定性贝叶斯模型平均制度　出处：《东南大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：资源禀赋与经济增长的关系问题是经济学研究的经典话题,也是一个极富争议性的研究论题。早期的研究者大多支持资源优势论的观点,而在上世纪中后期,随着大批的资源丰裕国家陷入增长困境,"资源诅咒"学说开始获得主流学界的关注及认同。纵观既有研究,发现研究者在"资源诅咒"是否存在及其产生机理的问题上,尚存在较大的争议,国内的研究情况亦是如此。然而,不可否认的是,对于我国这样一个资源总量丰裕而在国家内部分布又十分不均匀的国家而言,寻找一种可行的方法破除这种学术界僵持不下的局面,探索资源禀赋与经济增长的真实关系,以期在合理利用自然资源的同时实现区域均衡发展,避免陷入"资源诅咒"的桎梏,是十分重要和迫切需要解决的问题。在此基础上,本文认为现有的研究结论存在较大分歧的原因在于存在模型与变量的不确定性问题,并决定引入贝叶斯模型平均方法(Bayesian Model Averaging,BMA)重新检验国际以及国内层面的资源禀赋与经济增长的关系问题,这在同类研究中尚不多见。经过研究,本文发现,无论在国际以及国内层面,BMA方法均支持"资源诅咒"不存在的结论。同时,对于国际层面以制度质量水平为划分依据的分样本研究表明,制度质量低且经济发展严重依赖资源产业的国家,较易引发"资源诅咒";国内层面以东中西部地区为划分依据的分样本研究表明,西部地区由于产业单一、制造业衰退、人力资源储备不足以及技术及发展的落后,较易出现"资源诅咒"现象。在此基础上,本文给出了相对应的解决方案。
[Abstract]:The relationship between resource endowment and economic growth is a classic topic of economic research and a controversial research topic. Most of the early researchers supported the view of resource advantage theory, but in the middle and late of 0th century, With a large number of resource-rich countries falling into the dilemma of growth, the theory of "resource curse" has begun to gain attention and approval from the mainstream academic circles. Throughout the existing studies, it is found that researchers are concerned about the existence of "resource curse" and its mechanism. There is still a great deal of controversy, and the same is true of domestic research. However, it is undeniable that for a country such as China, where the total amount of resources is abundant and the distribution is very uneven within the country, To find a feasible way to break the deadlock in academic circles and explore the true relationship between resource endowment and economic growth in order to realize regional balanced development while utilizing natural resources rationally. To avoid falling into the shackles of "resource curse" is a very important and urgent problem to be solved. On this basis, this paper holds that the reason for the great divergence of existing research conclusions lies in the uncertainty of models and variables. It is also decided to introduce Bayesian Model averaging method to re-examine the relationship between resource endowment and economic growth at the international and domestic levels, which is rarely seen in similar studies. Both international and domestic BMA methods support the conclusion that "resource curse" does not exist. Countries with low institutional quality and heavy dependence on resource industries for their economic development are likely to trigger a "resource curse". A sample study on the east, west and central and western regions of China shows that the manufacturing industry in the western region is declining because of a single industry. The shortage of human resource reserve and the backwardness of technology and development make it easy to appear the phenomenon of "resource curse". On this basis, the corresponding solution is given in this paper.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124.1;F205

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