电子制造企业供应链中断风险防范研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 05:59

本文关键词： 可靠性贝叶斯网络供应链中断风险　出处：《北京交通大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年电子制造行业的竞争激烈程度有目共睹,市场对产品的价格及性价比尤为敏感,反应在企业的供应链上,则是对供应链上游原材料品质和成本,以及供应链管理体系的整体稳定性的要求。供应链作为企业价值链得以实现最关键的因素之一,它的中断必将衍生重大问题。因此,对电子制造企业供应链中断风险防范问题的研究,既有重要的理论意义,也有重大的现实意义。因此,本文在对相关理论进行研究的基础上,首先对电子制造企业供应链中断风险进行分析。通过构建电子制造企业供应链的贝叶斯网络诊断模型,对M企业的供应链数据进行分析,通过各节点中断因素的分析得出整条供应链的可靠度,并且通过分析计算出每个节点的后验概率,得出供应链发生中断后各中断风险来源发生中断的概率。然后在供应链结构优化模型的理论基础上,基于可靠性理论对电子制造企业供应链网络结构进行优化设计。创新性的将包含多种信息的供应链可靠性约束引入模型的约束条件,创建一个供应链的可靠性优化模型,并通过模型简化,及M企业实际算例的验证,得出模型实际的运行结果。从定量的角度研究了供应可靠性优化模型。最后,本文提出了一些供应链中断防范的策略。结合以上对不同种类的供应链中断的分析讨论,构建其不同的预防措施并讨论其实效性。本文一方面揭示出减少供应链中断风险发生能够极大地提高公司供应链的稳定性,突出克服供应链中断风险的必要性；另一方面通过实例说明,企业完全能够通过相应的数学工具和经验数据,计算出本身所对应的供应链中断风险的概率,这样将对企业提高供应链管理提供了具体的可行性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the fierce competition of electronic manufacturing industry is obvious, the market is particularly sensitive to the price and price ratio of products, which is reflected in the supply chain of enterprises, but also to the quality and cost of raw materials upstream of the supply chain. As one of the most critical factors to realize the enterprise value chain, the interruption of supply chain will give rise to important problems. The study of supply chain interruption risk prevention in electronic manufacturing enterprises is of great theoretical and practical significance. Therefore, based on the research of related theories, this paper first analyzes the supply chain interruption risk of electronic manufacturing enterprises, and constructs the Bayesian network diagnosis model of electronic manufacturing enterprise supply chain. Through the analysis of the supply chain data of M enterprise, the reliability of the whole supply chain is obtained through the analysis of the interruption factors of each node, and the posteriori probability of each node is calculated through the analysis. The probability of interruptions from different interruption risk sources after the interruption of supply chain is obtained, and then on the basis of the theory of supply chain structure optimization model. Based on the reliability theory, the supply chain network structure of electronic manufacturing enterprises is optimized and designed. The supply chain reliability constraints, which contain a variety of information, are innovatively introduced into the constraints of the model. A reliability optimization model of supply chain is established, and through the simplification of the model and the verification of the actual example of M enterprise, the actual operation results of the model are obtained. Finally, the supply reliability optimization model is studied from the quantitative point of view. This paper puts forward some strategies of supply chain interruption prevention, and discusses the different preventive measures and their effectiveness by analyzing and discussing the different types of supply chain interruptions above. On the one hand, this paper reveals that reducing the risk of supply chain interruption can greatly improve the stability of the company's supply chain and highlight the necessity of overcoming the supply chain interruption risk. On the other hand, through an example, the enterprise can calculate the probability of supply chain interruption risk through the corresponding mathematical tools and empirical data. This will provide specific feasibility for enterprises to improve supply chain management.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F274;F416.63

【参考文献】