反倾销对钢铁产业的影响与预警模型的构建

发布时间：2018-03-08 07:27

本文选题：反倾销　切入点：钢铁产业　出处：《湖南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国出口贸易额的快速增长，遭遇的反倾销数量大幅增加，反倾销逐渐演变为贸易保护的手段，对我国经济的负面影响愈加明显。其中，钢铁产业已成众多产业中遭遇反倾销最严重的产业。因此，系统的分析国际反倾销对钢铁产业的影响，并且建立有效的预警机制，对遏制目前日趋严重的国际钢铁反倾销调查具有重要的现实意义。本文首先从国外对华反倾销方面进行了理论综述，对目前的中国钢铁产品出口遭遇的反倾销现状进行了分析；其次，就国际反倾销对中国钢铁产业造成的影响和成因分别从贸易效应、非贸易效应、内部原因、外部原因四方面进行详细的梳理；第三，进一步通过投入产出表建立了价格传导模型,分析了钢铁产业被征收反倾销税后是否会通过产业链的传导作用对其他产业造成价格影响。最后，本文以中美钢铁贸易为例，对反倾销做出预警以及对现有预警模型进行验证并提出政策建议。研究显示：第一，中国已经成为全球范围内钢铁产业被反倾销调查最多的国家,199年至2011年共遭受来自27个国家共计219起反倾销调查案件。严重的贸易摩擦通过贸易效应和非贸易效应严重阻碍了中国产品的出口、降低了中国对他国的出口集中度、引发多米诺骨效应，并且反倾销措施的对钢铁产业的副作用会通过产业关联效应影响国内其他产业，冲击国内市场，，恶化中国投资环境，阻碍中国产业结构调整和技术改造的过程。第二，通过宏观经济影响因素和微观产业影响因素分析，中国对贸易国的贸易顺差、贸易集中度、贸易国的宏观经济形势以及中国经济地位与反倾销调查之间存在一定相关性，总体而言贸易伙伴国贸易环境和国内经济环境的恶化会增加对我国的反倾销调查。第三，从国家宏观经济状况、双边贸易摩擦和产业实质损害三个角度建立了预警指标体系，并结合计量和主成分分析法建立了钢铁反倾销预警模型。通过中美钢铁贸易1999年至2010年的数据验证，发现该预警系统能成功模拟预测2011年中国钢铁遭遇美国反倾销调查数量，并且预测结果与现实相符,说明本文所构建的预警模型有一定的作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of China's export trade volume, the amount of anti-dumping encountered has increased substantially. Anti-dumping has gradually evolved into a means of trade protection, and the negative impact on China's economy has become more and more obvious. The iron and steel industry has become the most serious one in many industries. Therefore, the impact of international anti-dumping on steel industry is systematically analyzed, and an effective early warning mechanism is established. It has important practical significance to curb the international iron and steel anti-dumping investigation. This paper firstly summarizes the theory of anti-dumping against China from abroad, and analyzes the current situation of anti-dumping in China's iron and steel products export. The impact and causes of international anti-dumping on China's iron and steel industry are analyzed in detail from four aspects: trade effect, non-trade effect, internal cause and external reason. Third, Furthermore, the price conduction model is established through the input-output table, and it is analyzed whether the iron and steel industry will influence the price of other industries through the conduction effect of the industrial chain after the anti-dumping duty is levied. Finally, this paper takes the Sino-American steel trade as an example. Early warning of anti-dumping and verification of existing early warning models and policy recommendations. Research shows that: first, China has become the largest country in the world in which the steel industry has been the subject of anti-dumping investigations. From 1999 to 2011, China suffered a total of 219 anti-dumping cases from 27 countries. Serious trade frictions were carried out through trade effects and non-trade effects. Should seriously hinder the export of Chinese products, It reduces the concentration of China's exports to other countries, causing a domino effect, and the adverse effects of anti-dumping measures on the steel industry will affect other domestic industries through industrial linkage effects, impact the domestic market, and worsen China's investment environment. Obstructing the process of China's industrial restructuring and technological transformation. Second, through the analysis of macroeconomic and micro-industrial factors, China's trade surplus and trade concentration with trading countries are analyzed. There is a certain correlation between the macroeconomic situation of trading countries and China's economic status and anti-dumping investigations. In general, the deterioration of trade environment and domestic economic environment in trading partner countries will increase anti-dumping investigations against China. Third, From the national macroeconomic situation, bilateral trade friction and industrial substantial damage, a warning index system has been established. Combined with measurement and principal component analysis, an antidumping early warning model of iron and steel was established. The data from 1999 to 2010 of Sino-US iron and steel trade proved that the early warning system could successfully simulate and predict the number of US anti-dumping investigations against Chinese steel in 2011. And the prediction results are consistent with the reality, which shows that the early warning model constructed in this paper has a certain role.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.02;F426.3

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