风电企业投资决策风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-08 15:49

本文选题：风电投资决策　切入点：风险管理　出处：《华北电力大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国的能源环境是拥有较多的没,但是石油和天然气则比较缺少。但是仅仅依靠煤炭来保障我国的能源供应,这使得我国能源的安全的问题越来越严重。因此我国必须在战略高度上解决能源问题,研究风电新能源的发展。从效率的角度来看,我们要重视研究大型风电项目的决策风险,关注风电发展的布局、从整体上优化风电投资建设。只有完善的政策和良好的发展环境才能降低风电发展的风险。因此,必须重视大型风电项目的风险评估,加强风电风险管理和防范机制的建设。本文通过综合分析国内外风电项目投资风险现状,对大型风电项目的投资决策风险重要性进行了阐述,详细介绍了我国风能资源储量及其分布、我国风电装机容量、我国风电场建设分布等,详细分析了我国大型风电的发展现状,并针对目前的发展状况进行了问题分析。接着,对我国大型风电场的投资情况进行分析,从政策风险、市场风险、技术风险、自然灾害风险、等几个方面进行了我国大型风电场投资的风险分析。根据指标体系建立的原则,结合大唐集团风电投资决策的特点,建立了科学、全面、适用的综合评价指标体系。该体系包括技术风险、经济风险、社会与环境影响等几个方面,每一方面又包含不同的评价指标。进利用粗糙集确定权重,最终建立了综合评价方法,对大唐集团风电投资决策进行风险评价。本文通过分析、结合理论研究,对大唐集团风电投资决策风险进行了详细的研究,建立了相应的评价指标体系和评价模型,并提出了大唐集团风电投资风险管理和应对机制,对大唐集团风电投资决策具有重要的指导意义。
[Abstract]:China has more energy environment, but oil and natural gas are relatively scarce. However, we only rely on coal to ensure our energy supply. This makes the problem of energy security in our country more and more serious. Therefore, we must solve the problem of energy on a strategic level and study the development of new energy sources for wind power. From the perspective of efficiency, we should attach importance to studying the decision-making risks of large-scale wind power projects. Pay attention to the layout of wind power development and optimize wind power investment and construction as a whole. Only a sound policy and a good development environment can reduce the risk of wind power development. Therefore, we must attach importance to the risk assessment of large-scale wind power projects. Strengthening the construction of wind power risk management and prevention mechanism. This paper expounds the importance of investment decision risk of large-scale wind power projects by synthetically analyzing the present situation of investment risk of wind power projects at home and abroad. This paper introduces in detail the reserves and distribution of wind energy resources in China, the installed capacity of wind power in China, the distribution of wind farm construction in China, and analyzes in detail the development status of large scale wind power in China, and analyzes the problems in view of the present development situation. This paper analyzes the investment situation of large scale wind farm in China, and analyzes the investment risk of large scale wind farm in China from the aspects of policy risk, market risk, technology risk, natural disaster risk, and so on. Based on the characteristics of wind power investment decision in Datang Group, a scientific, comprehensive and applicable comprehensive evaluation index system is established. The system includes technical risk, economic risk, social and environmental impact and so on. Each aspect also contains different evaluation indexes. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation method is established to evaluate the risk of wind power investment decision of Datang Group by making use of rough set to determine the weight. This paper makes a detailed study on the decision-making risk of wind power investment in Datang Group, establishes the corresponding evaluation index system and evaluation model, and puts forward the risk management and coping mechanism of wind power investment in Datang Group. It has important guiding significance to the decision of wind power investment in Datang Group.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.61

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