“奶粉新政”对我国婴幼儿配方乳粉产业的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 22:21

本文选题：婴幼儿配方乳粉产业 + 质量安全　；参考：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国是世界人口第一大国,相应的其婴幼儿人数也非常巨大。据国家统计局测算,目前中国0-3岁婴幼儿人数已达到6900万,并且每年新增1500万左右。母乳是婴幼儿天然且最优的食品。但并非所有的婴儿都能接受母乳哺育,甚至在中国婴幼儿接受母乳哺育的比例偏低,且喂养期也偏短。这必然形成了庞大的婴幼儿乳粉需求。值此机遇,正当是我国奶粉企业大展拳脚、蓬勃发展之际。但我国婴幼儿配方乳粉市场的发展却经历了诸多波折。从2004年的阜阳毒奶粉事件到2008年的三聚氰胺事件,每一次都刺痛着国人最敏感的神经。虽说我国奶粉产业也着实取得了不可否认的成就,但在发展过程中却几次偏离了正常的轨道。在数次事故中,国内消费者饱受伤害,他们对国产奶粉的信心降至低点。国产奶粉一蹶不振,而进口奶粉则大行其道,不断扩大市场份额,甚至趁机涨价,致使中国婴幼儿配方乳粉消费者面对着世界上最贵的奶粉价格。按照公布最高涨幅计算,洋奶粉最高涨幅累计已超过60%。在如此高额利润的诱惑下,不少假洋奶粉浑水摸鱼进入中国市场。面对这种乱况,中国政府不会坐视不管。食品药品监管总局、工业和信息化部等九部委联合提交的《关于进一步加强婴幼儿配方乳粉质量安全工作的意见》经国务院批准,并得到转发。该意见对我国婴幼儿配方乳粉的生产、销售、监管及产业发展作了种种规定。政策既然已经出台,这些规定势必对该产业的发展产生深刻的影响。伴随着更加严格的监管,生产及销售企业面临着更大的安全运营压力。而提高管理的信息化程度是一种必然的趋势,可否发展为企业和消费者双赢的局面呢?还有对于政策所规定的生产方式的限制,合规的企业可继续运行,而不合规的企业则面临整改甚至退出行业的境地。企业的数量有减少的可能,而鼓励和支持企业兼并重组则会加剧这一趋势。该项政策对我国婴幼儿配方乳粉产业发展的影响正成为迫切需要研究的题目。本文首先运用文献研究法,对现有学者有关于奶粉产业、奶粉质量、奶粉品牌、产品追溯体系及婴幼儿配方乳粉消费者行为等的研究进行了回顾,为本文对新政的分析提供了一定的理论基础。接下来对将要研究的婴幼儿配方乳粉产业进行了历史回顾与产业界定。还采用了实证分析法,纵向对比了近年来我国干乳制品产量、奶粉生产量及进口量的变化,来说明我国婴幼儿配方乳粉产业的现状。接下来研究了“奶粉新政”的影响,主要有以下几个方面：第一,婴幼儿配方乳粉按照药品管理办法进行管理可以提升全产业原有企业以及新进入企业的安全生产标准。第二,电子信息化管理系统有助于国内消费者及监管者获取婴幼儿配方乳粉生产链条中的相关信息,以减少信息不对称,有助于恢复国内消费者对于国产奶粉的信心。第三,限制婴幼儿配方乳粉生产方式有助于清除现有产业中的投机渔利之徒,但会增加新企业进入该产业的壁垒。第四,鼓励和支持婴幼儿配方乳粉生产企业兼并和重组会减少企业数目,提高市场集中度,这有助于产生“效率收益”,也有利于技术进步,但市场集中度的提高会使得企业市场支配能力增加。第五,监督监管的加强有助于规范企业的生产行为,生产企业、进口商及产品名录的公布也有助于消费者辨别产品真伪,同时也有利于社会监督机制的形成。新政如果能够得到深入贯彻和落实,将会大力提升全产业产品质量安全水平,有助于恢复消费者对于国产品牌的信心。但政策的制定和实施也是需要花费成本的,而且还可能存在效率比较低的情况。另外本文还提出了几点措施来保证产品质量的安全和促进产业朝着更加有序、规范、健康的方向发展：一是加强生产与监管人员职业道德教育；二是加强科研投入与技术开发；三是树立自有品牌,提升竞争力。本文的研究主要采用信息不对称理论、价格搜寻过程模型及行业壁垒等理论对“奶粉新政”的影响进行研究,就该行业而言,这类研究还是比较缺乏的。因此,这也算是本文的创新之处。但由于该产业数据收集的困难,本文并没有建立计量模型进行量化的分析,使得研究并没有很深入,这也是本文的遗憾之处。由于论文写作时间与政策推出时间相隔较短,文中的影响研究都是建立在笔者分析的基础之上,现实情况是否如此还需要再以后的时间进行观察。在将来笔者会对政策的影响进行持续跟踪与研究,以验证分析。另外就本文提出的政策建议是否能在该产业将来的发展中发挥作用还需要时间来验证。
[Abstract]:China is the world's largest population, and the number of corresponding infants is also very large. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the number of 0-3 year old infants in China has reached 69 million, and about 15 million of the new children are added each year. The proportion of infants receiving breastfeeding is low, and the feeding period is also short. This inevitably leads to a huge demand for infant milk powder.
On the occasion of this opportunity, the milk powder enterprise in China has developed vigorously, but the development of infant formula milk powder Market in China has experienced many twists and turns. From the Fuyang poison milk powder incident in 2004 to the melamine event in 2008, every time it hurts the most sensitive nerve of the Chinese people. Although the milk powder industry in our country has also made a bad effect. In the course of several accidents, domestic consumers were badly hurt, and their confidence in domestic milk powder fell to a low point. Consumers are facing the world's most expensive milk powder prices. According to the highest increase in the calculation, the highest increase in foreign milk powder has exceeded the temptation of 60%. in such a high profit, many fake ocean milk powder into the Chinese market.
In the face of this disorder, the Chinese government will not look at the opinions of the nine ministries and commissions, such as the food and drug administration, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other ministries and commissions, on the further strengthening of the quality and safety of infant formula milk powder, approved by the State Council and forwarded. Since the policy has been introduced, these Regulations are bound to have a profound impact on the development of the industry. With more stringent supervision, the production and sales enterprises are facing greater pressure of safety operation. And the improvement of management information is an inevitable trend, and can it be developed for both enterprises and consumers. What is the situation of winning? And the restrictions on the mode of production stipulated in the policy, the compliance enterprises can continue to operate, and the unregulated enterprises face the situation of rectify or even exit the industry. The number of enterprises may be reduced, while encouraging and supporting the merger and reorganization will aggravate the trend. The impact of the development of powder industry is becoming an urgent topic.
In this paper, the literature research method is used to review the research on milk powder industry, milk powder quality, milk powder brand, product traceability system and infant formula milk powder consumer behavior, which provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of the new policy. The historical review and industrial definition are carried out. The empirical analysis method is used to compare the production of dry milk products, the quantity of milk powder and the change of imports in recent years, to explain the present situation of infant formula milk powder industry in China.
Next, we studied the impact of the new formula on milk powder, mainly in the following aspects:
First, the management of infant formula milk powder according to the drug management method can improve the safety production standards of the whole industry and the newly entered enterprises.
Second, the electronic information management system will help domestic consumers and regulators to obtain relevant information in the chain of infant formula milk powder production, in order to reduce information asymmetry and help restore domestic consumers' confidence in domestic milk powder.
Third, limiting the production of infant formula milk powder will help eliminate speculative profits in existing industries, but will increase barriers to entry of new enterprises into the industry.
Fourth, encouraging and supporting the merger and reorganization of infant formula milk powder production enterprises will reduce the number of enterprises and increase the concentration of market, which will help to produce "efficiency income" and also benefit the technological progress, but the increase of market concentration will increase the dominance of the enterprise market.
Fifth, the strengthening of supervision and supervision helps to standardize the production behavior of enterprises. The publication of production enterprises, importers and product list also helps consumers to distinguish the authenticity of products, and is also conducive to the formation of social supervision mechanism.
If the new deal can be thoroughly implemented and implemented, the quality and safety level of the whole industry will be promoted greatly and the confidence of the consumer for domestic brands will be restored. However, the formulation and implementation of the policy will also cost the cost, and there may be a low efficiency. In addition, some measures are put forward to guarantee the production. The safety of quality and the promotion of the industry in the direction of more orderly, standardized and healthy development: first, to strengthen the professional moral education of the production and supervision personnel; two to strengthen the scientific research input and technology development; the three is to build up its own brand and enhance its competitiveness.
This study mainly uses the theory of information asymmetry, the model of the price search process and the industry barrier and other theories on the influence of the "milk powder new deal". In this industry, this kind of research is still relatively lack. Therefore, this is also the innovation of this article. But because of the difficulties in the data collection of the industry, this paper does not build up a plan. The quantitative analysis of the quantity model makes the research not very deep, which is also the regret of this paper. Because the time of paper writing is short apart from the time of policy introduction, the influence research in this paper is based on the author's analysis, and whether the reality is so still needs to be observed in the future. The impact of policy is continuously tracked and studied to verify analysis. In addition, it will take time to verify whether the policy recommendations proposed in this paper can play a role in the future development of the industry.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.82;F203

【参考文献】