中国风电产业链风险管理研究
本文选题：风电产业链 + 风险管理 ； 参考：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文
【摘要】：随着全球能源危机加剧、环境问题凸显,世界各国纷纷进行能源战略调整。风电作为清洁、高效的可再生能源,成为我国实施可再生能源战略的支柱性能源,获得了广阔的发展空间与市场前景。《能源发展十二五规划》的出台将推动我国风电产业的发展更上一个新的台阶。我国风电产业在迅速发展的过程中,风电产业链各环节问题逐渐显现。公共服务体系不完善、风电设备制造环节出现结构性产能过剩、风电设备研发设计能力不足、风电场开发与电网规划不一致、风电上网技术不足等问题在不同程度上制约了我国风电产业进一步发展。 本文首先分析了我国风电发展的现状和发展趋势,构建了中国风电产业链结构模型。其次,借鉴供应链运作参考模型(SCOR模型),结合我国风电产业链特点,从产业链外部环境、产业链模块、产业链业务流程三个层次对我国风电产业链风险因素进行了详细分析,并建立中国风电产业链风险评价指标体系。再次,在定性分析的基础上利用层次分析法(AHP)确定指标权重,建立多层次模糊综合评价(FCE)模型,对风电产业链各环节风险进行量化评价,通过定性和定量评价方法的结合,对我国风电产业链风险进行综合评估。最后,建立风险控制体系框架,根据不同风险类型提出相应的控制策略。 本文对于研究中国风电产业发展和风电产业链风险预防及管理具有一定的参考意义。
[Abstract]:With the aggravation of global energy crisis and environmental problems, countries all over the world adjust their energy strategy one after another. Wind power, as a clean and efficient renewable energy, has become the pillar energy for our country to implement the renewable energy strategy. The introduction of the 12th Five-Year Plan of Energy Development will promote the development of wind power industry in China to a new level. In the process of rapid development of wind power industry in our country, every link problem of wind power industry chain appears gradually. The public service system is not perfect, there is structural overcapacity in the manufacturing of wind power equipment, the R & D and design capacity of wind power equipment is insufficient, and the development of wind farm is inconsistent with the power network planning. The lack of wind power technology restricts the further development of wind power industry in China. This paper first analyzes the current situation and development trend of wind power in China, and constructs the structure model of wind power industry chain in China. Secondly, referring to the supply chain operation reference model (SCOR model), combined with the characteristics of wind power industry chain in China, the risk factors of wind power industry chain in China are analyzed in detail from three levels: the external environment of industry chain, the module of industry chain and the business process of industry chain. And establish China wind power industry chain risk evaluation index system. Thirdly, on the basis of qualitative analysis, the index weight is determined by AHP, and the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) model is established to evaluate the risk of every link of wind power industry chain quantitatively, through the combination of qualitative and quantitative evaluation methods. This paper evaluates the risk of wind power industry chain in China. Finally, the framework of risk control system is established, and corresponding control strategies are put forward according to different risk types. This paper has some reference significance to study the development of wind power industry and risk prevention and management of wind power industry chain in China.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61
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