卷烟企业科技创新项目风险分析与评价研究

发布时间：2018-07-27 15:44

【摘要】：当今,科技创新已经成为评价企业核心竞争力的重要指标之一,为企业的发展提供着源源不断的动力。国家《“十二五”产业技术创新规划》中明确指出,消费品创新是我国未来一段时间重点推进的四大领域之一。科技创新是现代企业生存和发展的必经之路。伴随着不断的科技创新,企业不仅能够提升现有产品与服务的品质,还可以拓展和开发新的领域,为企业带来更多效益。从社会层面来说,科技创新是社会经济发展的重要动力,持续高效的科技创新能够为经济增长不断注入新鲜活力,促进我国经济不断向前发展。烟草企业作为国有大型企业,在自身发展的同时还承担着更加重大的社会责任。因此,如何实现科技创新,不断推进烟草产品创新是烟草企业持续发展的所要解决的重大问题。科技创新给企业带来机遇的同时,也伴随着诸多风险。这些风险有些源自企业内部,有些是有企业外部环境引起的。引起风险的因素也各不相同,在不同的情况下呈现出不同的特征。最重要的是,这些风险的产生会对科技创新项目产生不利影响：有的会阻碍科技创新项目的进度,使企业错失市场机遇；有的会增加项目开发成本,影响企业利润；有点甚至会导致项目失败,对企业产生严重的后果。本文结合卷烟企业实际情况,构建了卷烟企业科技创新项目风险分析与评价的模型。该模型包括了对卷烟企业科技创新项目的风险识别与分类、风险优选、风险分析和风险评价四大模块。卷烟企业科技创新项目管理者能够通过该模型得出的风险评价结果采取相应措施,避免风险的发生或者减小风险的影响程度。首先,通过专家调查,归纳得到65项卷烟企业科技创新项目风险因素：再采用专家打分法,筛选出符合卷烟企业的案例科技创新项目的34项主要风险因素。其次,通过AHP法确定各类风险对案例项目的影响权重以及各风险因素对风险产生的影响权重。最后,采用模糊综合评价的方法,对得到的各权重结果作进一步处理,从而得出各类型风险以及各风险因素对科技创新项目的评价结果。这一评价模型与评价方法,在卷烟企业科技创新项目风险分析与评价中具有一定的应用参考价值,能帮助管理者判断科技创新项目风险因素的影响大小,从而有重点、有针对性地对科技创新项目风险进行控制与防范,提高科技创新的效率。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, scientific and technological innovation has become one of the important indicators to evaluate the core competitiveness of enterprises, which provides a continuous driving force for the development of enterprises. In the 12th Five-Year Plan of Industry Technology Innovation, it is pointed out that the innovation of consumer goods is one of the four key areas to be promoted in China for a period of time. Scientific and technological innovation is the only way for modern enterprises to survive and develop. With the continuous innovation of science and technology, enterprises can not only improve the quality of existing products and services, but also expand and develop new fields, bringing more benefits for enterprises. From the social level, scientific and technological innovation is an important driving force for the social and economic development. Sustained and efficient scientific and technological innovation can continuously inject fresh vitality into the economic growth and promote the continuous development of our country's economy. As a large-scale state-owned enterprise, tobacco enterprises are also shouldering greater social responsibility while developing themselves. Therefore, how to realize the innovation of science and technology and promote the innovation of tobacco products are the important problems to be solved in the sustainable development of tobacco enterprises. Scientific and technological innovation brings opportunities to enterprises, but also with a lot of risks. Some of these risks come from within the enterprise, and some are caused by the external environment of the enterprise. The factors that cause the risk are different, showing different characteristics in different situations. Most importantly, these risks will have a negative impact on STI projects: some will hinder the progress of STI projects and make enterprises miss market opportunities, some will increase project development costs and affect corporate profits. A little can even lead to project failure, with serious consequences for the enterprise. According to the actual situation of cigarette enterprises, this paper constructs a model of risk analysis and evaluation of scientific and technological innovation projects in cigarette enterprises. The model includes four modules: risk identification and classification, risk selection, risk analysis and risk evaluation. The managers of scientific and technological innovation projects in cigarette enterprises can take corresponding measures through the risk evaluation results obtained by the model to avoid the occurrence of risks or reduce the impact of risks. Firstly, through expert investigation, 65 items of risk factors of scientific and technological innovation projects of cigarette enterprises are summarized. Then, 34 main risk factors of scientific and technological innovation projects in accordance with cigarette enterprises' cases are selected by using expert scoring method. Secondly, the influence weight of all kinds of risk on the case project and the influence weight of each risk factor on the risk are determined by AHP method. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to further deal with the results of each weight, so as to obtain the evaluation results of various types of risks and risk factors to scientific and technological innovation projects. This evaluation model and evaluation method have certain application reference value in the risk analysis and evaluation of scientific and technological innovation projects in cigarette enterprises, and can help managers to judge the influence of the risk factors of scientific and technological innovation projects, so as to focus on the risk analysis and evaluation of scientific and technological innovation projects in cigarette enterprises. To control and prevent the risks of scientific and technological innovation projects and improve the efficiency of scientific and technological innovation.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F273.1;F426.89

【参考文献】