实物期权在石油勘探投资项目中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-10-17 18:53

【摘要】：石油产业作为支撑国民经济发展的重要产业，一直受到人们的密切关注。石油勘探作为石油开采的前序过程，对石油开采起着至关重要的作用，一个国家如果能够尽量降低石油进口的依赖程度，则能够提高国家在国际市场的竞争力。因此，石油勘探过程就显得尤为重要。只有石油勘探成功，才能进行后续的石油产品的生产，前期勘探过程一旦失败，则后续的石油开采则不能够顺利进行。长久以来，对于石油勘探的项目评价通常采用传统的净现金流量方法进行，通过每期固定的净现金流量，依照一定的折现率，对各期净现金流量进行折现，用以评定项目是否可以进行。而石油勘探项目的投资规模大、投资期限长，投资具有一定的可延迟性等特点，在这种情况下，净现金流量方法的评价方法则不够全面，不能计算出项目所含有的隐含价值。有大量实例可以证明，传统的净现金流量方法评价的不可接受项目，往往隐藏着一些潜在收益。因此，在这种情况下，引用实物期权方法对项目进行评定。实物期权方法能够结合期权的延迟性、可选择性等特点，计算项目的隐含收益，作为净现金流量方法的改善，为决策者提供更多的决策帮助，并且更加客观的评价项目收益。文章采用了理论研究和实证研究相结合的研究方法。在理论研究部分，阐述实物期权评价方法的相关理论知识，并对比各种评价方法的优势和劣势，说明B—S模型对石油勘探项目的适用性。在此基础上，对B—S模型进行修正，，以达到更加适用于石油勘探项目的目的。最后将传统的净现金流量方法、B—S模型以及修正后的B—S模型应用于具体的石油勘探项目，结果显示，在传统的净现金流量方法计算下，项目呈现不可接受的情况，而采用B—S模型进行计算后，项目的收益额为正，证明其包含了净现金流量方法不能够计算的隐含收益，能够更加客观全面的评价石油勘探项目收益。通过文章的研究，希望能够为决策者提供一定的借鉴，并为后续研究提供一定的理论支持。
[Abstract]:As an important industry supporting the development of national economy, petroleum industry has been paid close attention by people all the time. As a process of oil exploration, petroleum exploration plays an important role in oil exploitation. If a country can reduce its dependence on oil import as far as possible, it can improve the competitiveness of a country in the international market. Therefore, the oil exploration process is particularly important. Only if the petroleum exploration is successful, the subsequent production of petroleum products can be carried out. If the Prophase exploration process fails, the subsequent oil production will not be able to proceed smoothly. For a long time, the traditional net cash flow method is usually used to evaluate the oil exploration projects. Through the fixed net cash flow per period, according to a certain discount rate, the net cash flow in each period is discounted. Used to assess whether the project can be carried out. However, the investment scale of petroleum exploration project is large, the investment period is long, and the investment has some characteristics such as delay, etc. In this case, the evaluation method of net cash flow method is not comprehensive enough to calculate the implied value of the project. There are a lot of examples to prove that the traditional net cash flow method can not accept the evaluation of projects, often hidden some potential benefits. Therefore, in this case, the real option method is used to evaluate the project. The real option method can be combined with the delay and selectivity of the option to calculate the implied income of the project, as the improvement of the net cash flow method, to provide more decision assistance for the decision makers, and to evaluate the project income more objectively. This paper adopts the research method of combining theoretical research with empirical research. In the part of theoretical research, the relative theoretical knowledge of real option evaluation method is expounded, and the advantages and disadvantages of various evaluation methods are compared to illustrate the applicability of B-S model to petroleum exploration projects. On this basis, the B-S model is modified to be more suitable for petroleum exploration projects. Finally, the traditional net cash flow method, the B-S model and the modified B-S model are applied to the specific oil exploration projects. The results show that under the traditional net cash flow method, the project presents an unacceptable situation. By using B-S model, the income of the project is positive, which proves that it contains the implicit income which can not be calculated by the net cash flow method, and it can evaluate the income of oil exploration project more objectively and comprehensively. Through the research, we hope to provide some reference for decision makers and theoretical support for further research.
【学位授予单位】：东北石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.1

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