电力设备企业投资智能电网项目的风险评价研究
发布时间：2018-11-23 07:39
【摘要】：21世纪以来，随着社会经济的飞速发展和科技水平的不断进步，人们对电力系统的要求也越来越高。智能电网作为促进节能减排、开发可再生能源、实现可持续发展的重要手段，是未来电网的发展方向。其投资规模大、技术要求高、建设周期长等特点使得智能电网项目风险种类繁多、变化复杂。因此，对智能电网项目的风险进行分析评估，对于项目的成败有着至关重要的作用。 风险评价是企业投资智能电网项目过程中的关键环节，本文首先介绍了风险识别和评价方法的基本理论，通过科学的研究方法对智能电网项目投资风险的构成和特点进行分析，并将风险归纳分类，建立了智能电网风险评价指标体系。然后在对多种评价方法论述比较的基础上，最终采用模糊综合评价的方法，将层次分析法和模糊评价法相结合，获得各层次风险因素的权重和评价判断矩阵，通过这种将定量与定性相结合的评价方法，对投资智能电网项目的风险做出客观科学的综合评价。 为进一步证实所建立的风险评价模型的适用性，运用模糊层次分析方法对国电南瑞投资智能变电站项目案例进行风险分析和评价。首先结合实际建立了关于风险评价的多层次综合评价指标体系，采用层次分析法和模糊数学理论确定指标的权重,按照各类风险因素对项目的影响的严重程度进行了评估，并进一步探讨了国电南瑞智能变电站建设项目各类风险的应对措施。 本文以智能电网项目与风险管理为研究目标，探索了智能电网项目风险管理中一些迷惑的问题，为电力设备企业投资智能电网项目提供了风险管理的理论依据和风险评价的方法，具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。希望通过本文较为系统的研究，，能够对我国智能电网项目投资风险的研究提供有益参考。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, with the rapid development of social economy and the continuous progress of science and technology, the demand of power system is becoming higher and higher. Smart grid, as an important means to promote energy saving and emission reduction, develop renewable energy and realize sustainable development, is the future development direction of power grid. The large scale of investment, high technical requirements and long construction cycle make the smart grid project risk variety and complex. Therefore, the risk analysis and assessment of smart grid project is very important to the success or failure of the project. Risk assessment is a key link in the process of enterprise investment in smart grid projects. This paper first introduces the basic theory of risk identification and evaluation methods, and analyzes the composition and characteristics of investment risks in smart grid projects through scientific research methods. The risk evaluation index system of smart grid is established by classifying the risk. Then, on the basis of the comparison of various evaluation methods, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted, and the AHP and the fuzzy evaluation method are combined to obtain the weight and evaluation judgment matrix of the risk factors at each level. By combining quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods, this paper makes an objective and scientific comprehensive evaluation of the risk of investing in smart grid projects. In order to further confirm the applicability of the established risk assessment model, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method is used to analyze and evaluate the risk of the Nari intelligent substation project case. Firstly, the multi-level comprehensive evaluation index system of risk assessment is established, and the weight of the index is determined by AHP and fuzzy mathematics theory, and the severity of the impact of various risk factors on the project is evaluated. Furthermore, the measures to deal with the various risks in the construction project of Nari intelligent substation of Guodian Power are discussed. Aiming at smart grid project and risk management, this paper explores some puzzling problems in smart grid project risk management. It provides a theoretical basis for risk management and a method of risk evaluation for power equipment enterprises to invest in smart grid projects, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance. It is hoped that this paper will provide a useful reference for the research of investment risk of smart grid projects in China.
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.6;F272.3
本文编号：2350807
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, with the rapid development of social economy and the continuous progress of science and technology, the demand of power system is becoming higher and higher. Smart grid, as an important means to promote energy saving and emission reduction, develop renewable energy and realize sustainable development, is the future development direction of power grid. The large scale of investment, high technical requirements and long construction cycle make the smart grid project risk variety and complex. Therefore, the risk analysis and assessment of smart grid project is very important to the success or failure of the project. Risk assessment is a key link in the process of enterprise investment in smart grid projects. This paper first introduces the basic theory of risk identification and evaluation methods, and analyzes the composition and characteristics of investment risks in smart grid projects through scientific research methods. The risk evaluation index system of smart grid is established by classifying the risk. Then, on the basis of the comparison of various evaluation methods, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted, and the AHP and the fuzzy evaluation method are combined to obtain the weight and evaluation judgment matrix of the risk factors at each level. By combining quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods, this paper makes an objective and scientific comprehensive evaluation of the risk of investing in smart grid projects. In order to further confirm the applicability of the established risk assessment model, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method is used to analyze and evaluate the risk of the Nari intelligent substation project case. Firstly, the multi-level comprehensive evaluation index system of risk assessment is established, and the weight of the index is determined by AHP and fuzzy mathematics theory, and the severity of the impact of various risk factors on the project is evaluated. Furthermore, the measures to deal with the various risks in the construction project of Nari intelligent substation of Guodian Power are discussed. Aiming at smart grid project and risk management, this paper explores some puzzling problems in smart grid project risk management. It provides a theoretical basis for risk management and a method of risk evaluation for power equipment enterprises to invest in smart grid projects, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance. It is hoped that this paper will provide a useful reference for the research of investment risk of smart grid projects in China.
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.6;F272.3
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