江苏省制造业产能过剩的测度与成因分析

发布时间：2018-12-14 04:28

【摘要】：产能过剩是指经济波动中市场上产品有效需求能力远远低于实际生产能力的状态,或者实际产能产出低于最佳产能,资源得不到充分利用而出现闲置,并经常伴有库存商品积压、产品价格下跌、企业竞争加剧和行业利润下滑等诸多不利的现象。这种经济现象在整个市场经济中普遍存在,也是这些年来我国经济发展过程中所面临的一项重要问题。短期供需失衡在市场经济中常常出现,是正常现象；但是长期产能过剩,往往会紊乱市场秩序,加剧经济波动风险,对产业结构健康发展和经济活动正常运行带来诸多不利的影响。近年来,无论是社会还是政府都高度关注产能过剩的问题,政府工作会议将化解产能过剩的矛盾列为产业结构优化调整的重要工作。江苏省制造业在全国名列前茅,因此,测度江苏制造业各行业产能利用率以及探究其产能过剩的影响因素就显得尤为必要。本文首先通过图形对产能过剩的内涵进行了行业层面的界定并阐述了产能过剩的判定标准,然后运用经济学相关理论从微观厂商视角对产能过剩进行了分析。接着从理论上阐述了转型经济背景下产能过剩的成因,由于财政分权和官员晋升体制等原因,使得地方政府有强烈的动机去通过低价土地、银行预算软约束以及财政补贴等手段甚至以牺牲环境为代价去“照顾”企业投资行为。同时通过建立简单的博弈模型对产能过剩的形成机理加以阐释。本文选取了边界生产函数对江苏制造业28个行业在2003-2012年的产能利用率进行了测度。根据测定结果,产能过剩主要集中于以下八大行业中：其中，，重工业领域占六个,分别是化学原料及化学制品制造业、医药制造业、橡胶制品业、塑料制品业、非金属矿物制品业、黑色金属冶炼及延压加工业；轻工业领域占两个,分别是造纸及纸制品业和化学纤维制造业。由此进一步分析江苏制造业各行业产能过剩的特征和趋势,结果显示大部分行业产能利用率的变动符合经济周期波动的变化趋势。再运用面板数据模型中的不变系数模型估计得出江苏地方政府干预对产能过剩具有正向影响效应,在地方政府干预对产能过剩影响中企业过度投资充当了中介作用。在此基础上,提出相应的政策建议,比如：减少地方政府干预,健全要素市场体系,加强环境保护责任等等,具有一定的理论与现实意义。
[Abstract]:Overcapacity refers to the situation in which the effective demand capacity of products in the market is far lower than the actual production capacity in the economic fluctuations, or the actual capacity output is lower than the optimal production capacity, and the resources are not fully utilized and idle. And often accompanied by inventory goods backlog, product prices fall, enterprise competition and industry profit decline and many other adverse phenomena. This kind of economic phenomenon exists generally in the whole market economy, and it is also an important problem in the process of our country's economic development in recent years. Short-term supply and demand imbalance often appears in the market economy, is a normal phenomenon; However, long-term overcapacity will often disorder the market order, aggravate the risk of economic fluctuations, and bring a lot of adverse effects on the healthy development of industrial structure and the normal operation of economic activities. In recent years, both the society and the government have paid great attention to the problem of overcapacity, and the government working conference has made resolving the contradiction of overcapacity an important task in the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure. The manufacturing industry of Jiangsu Province ranks among the top in the country, so it is necessary to measure the utilization rate of production capacity in the manufacturing industry of Jiangsu Province and to explore the influencing factors of its overcapacity. This paper firstly defines the connotation of overcapacity through graph and expounds the judgment standard of overcapacity, and then analyzes the overcapacity from the angle of microcosmic manufacturer with the relevant theory of economics. Then, it explains theoretically the causes of overcapacity in the context of the transition economy. Due to the fiscal decentralization and the system of promotion of officials, local governments have a strong incentive to pass through low-priced land. Bank budget soft constraints and financial subsidies even at the expense of the environment to "take care of" corporate investment behavior. At the same time, the formation mechanism of overcapacity is explained by establishing a simple game model. In this paper, the boundary production function is selected to measure the capacity utilization ratio of 28 manufacturing industries in Jiangsu Province in 2003-2012. According to the results, overcapacity is mainly concentrated in the following eight major industries: six of them are heavy industries, namely, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, rubber products, plastics products, etc. Non-metallic mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and pressing industry; Light industry sector accounted for two, respectively, paper and paper products and chemical fiber manufacturing industry. The characteristics and trends of overcapacity in Jiangsu manufacturing industries are further analyzed. The results show that the change of capacity utilization ratio in most industries is in line with the trend of economic cycle fluctuation. Then using the invariant coefficient model in the panel data model, it is estimated that the local government intervention in Jiangsu has a positive effect on overcapacity, and the enterprise overinvestment plays an intermediary role in the influence of local government intervention on overcapacity. On this basis, it is of theoretical and practical significance to put forward corresponding policy suggestions, such as reducing local government intervention, perfecting the factor market system, strengthening the responsibility of environmental protection and so on.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F424

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