云南煤炭供需市场分析及产业发展对策研究

发布时间：2019-03-09 15:06

【摘要】：我国自建国以来，特别是经历了改革开放以来，，经济的快速发展，对能源的需求也迅猛增长，面临着越来越严峻的能源供需矛盾的问题。而中国能源资源的国情是“贫油、少气、富煤”，能源结构的特点决定了煤炭是主要能源。长期以来煤炭在中国一次能源生产和消费构成中均占2/3以上,在国民经济中具有重要的战略地位。云南省“富煤、少气、贫油”的能源特点更为突出。尽管云南省水电资源为全国排第二位，但云南水电以径流为主,火电削峰填谷的功能无可替代。煤炭供需平衡直接关系云南省经济运行的平稳。云南省煤炭市场的供需不平衡、产需不衔接等矛盾，严重妨碍了煤炭产业的健康发展，给云南省经济运行造成严重的不良影响,煤电油运一度成为经济发展的“瓶颈”。煤炭作为运输的大宗物资，主要运输途径有铁路、公路、水路，最廉价的方式是水路运输,其次是铁路运输。云南省在全国铁路网中处于“末端”,水运更不具备临海的客观条件。国家将云南规划为“自给区”。因此，研究云南省煤炭的供需平衡至关重要。即研究区域内的煤炭市关系，准确预测出地区煤炭的需求量和供给量，并针对此作出科学合理的分析，才能有效合理地制定能源发展规划及对策，才能更好地保证地区经济的可持续发展。本文就是以云南省煤炭市场供需为研究的主要对象，分析云南省煤炭目前需求量和供给量的基础上，通过定性和定量相结合的方式建立模型，对云南省2020年煤炭的需求和供给进行预测，并进行供需关系的分析，提出相应的建议。对云南省煤炭供需的科学预测，能为云南省制定中长期煤炭及能源发展战略提供基本依据，对于云南省煤炭资源的可持续发展、保证能源安全、社会经济建设目标的实现都具有重要的现实意义。本文首先对煤炭、能源等概念进行分类界定。分析云南省煤炭供给和需求的现状和其影响因素，分析了云南省能源供给结构。包括煤炭资源情况、产业结构和规模大小、大型的煤炭企业投产情况，同时分析了云南省煤炭需求市场环境、需求结构和发展趋势。分析云南省供需失衡的因素和原因，为后续煤炭的预测做分析铺垫。然后概述各种能源预测方法的基本原理，通过对云南省2000-2012年能源年鉴数据进行研究和分析，通过Eviews分析软件对数据进行可靠性检验，并应用VAR模型对云南省2020年的煤炭需求和供给进行预测，同时通过ARMA模型进行预测结果拟合度分析，提高预测的准确度。最后，通过模型预测，得出云南省煤炭的需求量是为17897.48万吨原煤，煤炭供给量为16323.45万吨原煤，供给需求之间的缺口1574.03万吨原煤，需求略大于供给。在此研究结论基础上，提出具有针对性的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, especially since the reform and opening up, the rapid development of economy, the rapid growth of energy demand, is facing more and more serious contradiction between energy supply and demand. The national conditions of China's energy resources are "poor oil, less gas and rich coal". The characteristics of energy structure determine that coal is the main energy source. For a long time, coal plays an important strategic role in China's primary energy production and consumption, which accounts for more than 2% of China's primary energy production and consumption. Yunnan Province "rich in coal, less gas, poor oil" energy characteristics are more prominent. Although Yunnan Province is the second largest hydropower resource in China, it is mainly runoff, and the function of cutting peak and filling valley by thermal power is irreplaceable. The balance of coal supply and demand is directly related to the stability of economic operation in Yunnan Province. The imbalance of supply and demand in Yunnan coal market and the disconnection between production and demand seriously hinder the healthy development of coal industry and cause serious adverse effects on the economic operation of Yunnan Province. The transportation of coal and electricity and oil has once become the "bottleneck" of economic development. Coal as a major transport material, the main means of transport are railways, roads, waterways, the cheapest way is water transport, followed by rail transport. Yunnan Province is at the end of the national railway network, and the water transportation does not have the objective condition of facing the sea. The state plans Yunnan as a "self-contained area." Therefore, it is very important to study the balance of coal supply and demand in Yunnan Province. That is, to study the relationship between coal and city in the region, to accurately predict the demand and supply of coal in the region, and to make a scientific and reasonable analysis on this, in order to formulate the energy development plan and countermeasures effectively and reasonably. In order to better ensure the sustainable development of the regional economy. Taking the supply and demand of Yunnan coal market as the main research object, this paper analyzes the current demand and supply quantity of Yunnan coal, and establishes the model through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. This paper forecasts the demand and supply of coal in Yunnan Province in 2020, analyzes the relationship between supply and demand, and puts forward some suggestions. The scientific prediction of coal supply and demand in Yunnan Province can provide the basic basis for the formulation of medium-and long-term coal and energy development strategy in Yunnan Province, and guarantee the energy security for the sustainable development of coal resources in Yunnan Province. The realization of the goal of socio-economic construction is of great practical significance. In this paper, the concept of coal, energy and so on are classified and defined. The present situation of coal supply and demand in Yunnan Province and its influencing factors are analyzed, and the energy supply structure of Yunnan Province is analyzed. Including the situation of coal resources, industrial structure and size, the production of large-scale coal enterprises, the market environment of coal demand in Yunnan Province, demand structure and development trend are analyzed at the same time. This paper analyzes the factors and reasons of the imbalance between supply and demand in Yunnan Province, and lays the groundwork for the future prediction of coal. Then the basic principles of various energy forecasting methods are summarized. Through the research and analysis of the energy yearbook data from 2000 to 2012 in Yunnan Province, the reliability of the data is tested by Eviews analysis software. The VAR model is applied to forecast the demand and supply of coal in Yunnan Province in 2020. At the same time, the ARMA model is used to analyze the fitting degree of the prediction results to improve the accuracy of the prediction. Finally, through the model forecast, it is concluded that the demand of Yunnan coal is 178.9748 million tons of raw coal, the coal supply is 163.2345 million tons of raw coal, the gap between supply and demand is 15.7403 million tons of raw coal, the demand is slightly larger than the supply. On the basis of this research conclusion, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.21

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