电力基建工程项目风险管理研究
发布时间：2019-05-03 18:23
【摘要】：在工程项目管理中,风险管理属于一种高层次的综合性管理工作,它是分析和处理由不确定性产生的各种问题的一整套方法,包括风险的辩识、风险的分析及风险的控制。风险管理是工程项目管理不可缺少的一个部分。随着电力改革的不断深化,国家加大了电力基础建设的力度。特别是形成五大发电集团和南北两大电网公司的新格局后,更是掀起了电力建设的新高潮。电力基建工程项目建设周期长、投资多、技术要求高、系统复杂,风险伴随在整个工程项目寿命周期中,直接威胁工程项目的顺利实施和成功。因此,对工程项目的风险加以认识、分析、评价和控制成为一项重要的任务。 本文研究了工程项目风险管理的基本理论,将现代风险管理理论与我国电力基建工程的实际相结合,系统研究了电力基建工程项目风险管理的内容和方法。通过分析电力基建工程项目风险因素,对电力基建工程项目风险进行识别,提出了电力基建工程项目风险的指标体系,构建了基于模糊综合评价法的电力基建工程项目风险评价模型。最后,本文综合运用风险分析的理论,构建出唐山北郊热电厂工程项目的模糊综合评价模型,从环境风险、管理风险、经济风险、技术风险和社会风险等方面详细分析了唐山北郊热电厂工程项目的风险,评价其风险程度,并找出高风险因素,为该项目的投资建设提供参考依据。
[Abstract]:In engineering project management, risk management is a kind of high-level comprehensive management. It is a set of methods to analyze and deal with various problems caused by uncertainty, including the identification of risks, the analysis of risks and the control of risks. Risk management is an indispensable part of project management. With the deepening of power reform, the state has increased the power infrastructure. Especially after the formation of the new pattern of the five power generation groups and the North and South power grid companies, a new climax of power construction has been set off. The construction cycle of electric power infrastructure project is long, the investment is large, the technical requirement is high, the system is complex, and the risk is accompanied by the whole life cycle of the project, which directly threatens the successful implementation and success of the project. Therefore, it is an important task to recognize, analyze, evaluate and control the risks of engineering projects. In this paper, the basic theory of project risk management is studied, and the content and method of risk management are systematically studied by combining the modern risk management theory with the practice of electric power infrastructure engineering in China. By analyzing the risk factors of the electric power infrastructure project, the paper identifies the risk of the power infrastructure project, and puts forward the index system of the risk of the electric power infrastructure project. The risk assessment model of electric power construction project based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is constructed. Finally, based on the theory of risk analysis, this paper constructs a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of thermal power plant project in the northern suburbs of Tangshan, which includes environmental risk, management risk and economic risk. The technical risk and social risk are analyzed in detail, the risk degree of the project is evaluated, and the high risk factors are found out, which can provide reference for the investment and construction of the project.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F272.3;F426.61
本文编号：2469147
[Abstract]:In engineering project management, risk management is a kind of high-level comprehensive management. It is a set of methods to analyze and deal with various problems caused by uncertainty, including the identification of risks, the analysis of risks and the control of risks. Risk management is an indispensable part of project management. With the deepening of power reform, the state has increased the power infrastructure. Especially after the formation of the new pattern of the five power generation groups and the North and South power grid companies, a new climax of power construction has been set off. The construction cycle of electric power infrastructure project is long, the investment is large, the technical requirement is high, the system is complex, and the risk is accompanied by the whole life cycle of the project, which directly threatens the successful implementation and success of the project. Therefore, it is an important task to recognize, analyze, evaluate and control the risks of engineering projects. In this paper, the basic theory of project risk management is studied, and the content and method of risk management are systematically studied by combining the modern risk management theory with the practice of electric power infrastructure engineering in China. By analyzing the risk factors of the electric power infrastructure project, the paper identifies the risk of the power infrastructure project, and puts forward the index system of the risk of the electric power infrastructure project. The risk assessment model of electric power construction project based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is constructed. Finally, based on the theory of risk analysis, this paper constructs a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of thermal power plant project in the northern suburbs of Tangshan, which includes environmental risk, management risk and economic risk. The technical risk and social risk are analyzed in detail, the risk degree of the project is evaluated, and the high risk factors are found out, which can provide reference for the investment and construction of the project.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F272.3;F426.61
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