煤炭物流供应链网络风险评价模型及应用研究

发布时间：2019-06-20 11:51

【摘要】：随着国家经济飞速发展以及对煤炭行业政策支持,使得煤炭产品的多样化需求不断增加。但我国目前煤炭供需不平衡问题非常突出,价格不断上下波动较大。煤炭物流供应网络的参与者较多,受内外部环境因素影响也比较多,因此各种不确定因素对煤炭物流供应链网络风险波动影响很大。为促进煤炭行业的健康发展以及提高煤炭物流供应效率,避免出现煤炭供需失衡或中断,对煤炭物流供应链网络的风险分析及评价研究具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文在阐述了煤炭物流供应链网络和供应链风险概念与特征的基础上,结合煤炭物流供应链网络的运作流程,对导致煤炭物流供应链网络的风险因素进行分析。针对煤炭物流供应链网络的结构风险、信息风险、生产风险、物流风险及环境风险,建立了由15个定性与定量的煤炭物流供应链网络风险评价指标体系。后比较了不同风险评价方法的优缺点,最终选择BP神经网络与遗传算法相结合的遗传神经网络风险评价方法。利用遗传算法对BP神经网络的权阈值进行优化,建立基于遗传神经网络的风险评价模型与算法,有效地实现对煤炭物流供应链网络的风险评价。在算例中,用MATLAB软件建立的遗传神经网络风险评价模型对样本数据进行网络训练,通过结果对比分析,来验证基于遗传神经网络的煤炭物流供应链网络风险评价模型的可行性。最后通过对风险指标参数的灵敏度分析,来确定其对评价结果的影响程度,并提供了风险管理方案的改进意见。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of national economy and policy support for coal industry, the diversified demand of coal products is increasing. However, at present, the imbalance between supply and demand of coal in China is very prominent, and the price fluctuates greatly. There are many participants in the coal logistics supply network, and there are many internal and external environmental factors, so all kinds of uncertain factors have a great influence on the risk fluctuation of the coal logistics supply chain network. In order to promote the healthy development of coal industry, improve the efficiency of coal logistics supply and demand, and avoid the imbalance or interruption of coal supply and demand, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the risk analysis and evaluation of coal logistics supply chain network. On the basis of expounding the concepts and characteristics of coal logistics supply chain network and supply chain risk, combined with the operation process of coal logistics supply chain network, this paper analyzes the risk factors leading to coal logistics supply chain network. Aiming at the structural risk, information risk, production risk, logistics risk and environmental risk of coal logistics supply chain network, 15 qualitative and quantitative risk evaluation index systems of coal logistics supply chain network are established. After that, the advantages and disadvantages of different risk assessment methods are compared, and the genetic neural network risk assessment method based on BP neural network and genetic algorithm is finally selected. Genetic algorithm is used to optimize the weight threshold of BP neural network, and the risk evaluation model and algorithm based on genetic neural network are established to effectively realize the risk assessment of coal logistics supply chain network. In the example, the genetic neural network risk assessment model established by MATLAB software is used to train the sample data. Through the comparative analysis of the results, the feasibility of the coal logistics supply chain network risk assessment model based on genetic neural network is verified. Finally, through the sensitivity analysis of the risk index parameters, the influence degree on the evaluation results is determined, and the improvement suggestions of the risk management scheme are provided.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TP183;F274;F426.21

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