中国省级地方债务对经济增长影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 15:24

  本文选题：省级政府债务 + 面板效应　； 参考：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：政府债务长期以来一直是热点问题,政府债务对经济增长的影响也始终是国家和央行在管理债务规模的首要考虑。在中国,国家债务而非地方债务被给予太多关注。事实上,从2008年金融危机导致的经济发展减缓以来,中央政府实施的4万亿刺激计划中只有1万亿是由中央政府提供的,而剩余的资金都必须由地方政府筹措。庞大的资金需求以及随后的地方发债合法化使得地方政府通过借债融资有了必要性和合理性。迅速扩张的地方政府债务规模要求对地方债务对经济增长的影响进行进一步研究。本文应用凯恩斯的有效需求理论、哈罗德-多玛模型和新古典经济增长理论来分析地方政府债务对经济增长的影响传导机制。此外,在数据处理的过程中发现存在门槛效应,因此进行了包括门槛回归等进一步回归分析。由于中国不同地区经济发展水平的巨大差异,各省份被分组进行面板回归以弄清不同地区不同债务水平对经济增长的不同影响。本文实证分析基于30个省份从2010到2015这六年的数据。本文第一章是导论,介绍了研究背景、研究目的以及研究方法。第二章先对过去政府债务的定义以及形成的研究进行回顾,随后对地方政府债务和经济增长的关系进行了文献回顾。第三章分析了政府债务对经济增长的影响机制。第四章主要是计量模型的建立以及数据来源的介绍。第五章进行了包括相关分析、平稳性检验、面板回归分析、门槛面板分析以及按地区回归分析等实证研究。最后一张得出结论,在合理范围内的地方政府债务能推动经济增长,但是推动作用在不同地区随着债务水平的不同有所区别。本文研究的主要结论有:(1)通过描述性统计分析和相关性分析,30个地区2010-2015年六年时间地方GDP年度增长率均值为12.869%,地方政府债务率均值为41.13%。通过相关性分析,可知在0.05水平下被解释变量经济增长率与解释变量债务率中度正相关,与控制变量城市化率弱度负相关,与控制变量对外贸易总额中度正相关,与控制变量人口增长率无显著关系;(2)通过Hausman检验结果可知选择固定效应进行面板回归分析,可知0.01的显著性水平下地方政府债率水平可以促进地方经济的增长。同时,通过设置地方政府债务率为门槛变量进行门槛回归分析可知,在0.01显著性水平下当地方政府债务率低于1.1745时,债务率水平与地方经济呈正相关,这说明地方政府债务增加不但没有缩小同等条件下经济增长的差距,反而加剧了差距影响;当地方政府债务率高于1.1745时,债务率水平与地方经济仍然呈正相关但影响系数缩小了,即债务水平提高对经济增长的正向作用降低了;(3)30地区整体固定效应回归分析中地方政府债务率与地方经济增长的回归系数为0.0181。通过对东中西三个地区的面板数据分别进行回归分析,东部地区两者的回归系数大于整体系数,说明东部地区地方政府债务率对经济增长的促进作用要高于全国平均水平;西部地区两者的回归系数为小于整体系数,说明西部地区地方政府债务率对经济增长的促进作用要低于全国平均水平。
[Abstract]:Government debt has been a hot issue for a long time. The impact of government debt on economic growth has always been the primary consideration by the state and central bank in managing debt. In China, national debt rather than local debt is given too much attention. In fact, since the economic development of the financial crisis slowed in 2008, the central government has implemented 40 thousand Only 1 trillion of the billion stimulus plans are provided by the central government, and the remaining funds must be raised by local governments. The huge demand for funds and the subsequent legalization of local government debt make it necessary and reasonable for local governments to borrow from debt. The rapid expansion of local government debt demands the economy of local debt to the economy. The effect of growth is further studied. This paper applies Keynes's effective demand theory, Harold - dom model and neoclassical economic growth theory to analyze the transmission mechanism of the influence of local government debt on economic growth. In addition, the threshold effect is found in the process of data processing. Stepwise regression analysis. Due to the huge difference in economic development level in different regions of China, each province is grouped by panel regression to understand the different effects of different debt levels on economic growth in different regions. This paper is based on the data of the six years from 30 provinces from 2010 to 2015. The first chapter is the introduction, the research background, and the research background. The second chapter reviews the definition and formation of government debt in the past, and then reviews the relationship between local government debt and economic growth. The third chapter analyzes the influence mechanism of government debt on economic growth. The fourth chapter is the establishment of the measurement model and the data source. The fifth chapter includes the correlation analysis, the stability test, the panel regression analysis, the threshold panel analysis and the regional regression analysis. The final conclusion is that the local government debt in a reasonable range can promote economic growth, but the role is different in different regions as the level of debt is different. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) through descriptive statistical analysis and correlation analysis, the average annual growth rate of local GDP is 12.869% in 2010-2015 years and six years in 30 regions, and the local government debt rate is 41.13%. through correlation analysis. It can be seen that the economic growth rate and the explanatory variable debt rate are moderate at the 0.05 level. Positive correlation, negative correlation with control variable urbanization rate, moderate positive correlation with control variable foreign trade total, and no significant relationship with control variable population growth rate. (2) through the Hausman test results, we know that the fixed effect is selected to carry on the panel regression analysis, we can see that the level of local government debt rate can promote the local level under the explicit level of 0.01. At the same time, by setting the threshold regression analysis of the local government debt rate as a threshold variable, we know that the debt rate is positively related to the local economy when the local government debt rate is below 1.1745 under the 0.01 significant level, which indicates that the increase of local government debt does not narrow the gap of economic growth under the same conditions. However, when the local government debt rate is higher than 1.1745, the debt rate is still positively related to the local economy but the influence coefficient is reduced, that is, the positive effect of the debt level on the economic growth is reduced; (3) the return of local government debt and local economic growth in the 30 region's overall fixed effect regression analysis The coefficient is 0.0181. through the regression analysis of the panel data in three East and west regions. The regression coefficient of the eastern region is greater than the overall coefficient, indicating that the local government debt rate in the eastern region is higher than the national average. The regression coefficient of the western region is less than the overall coefficient, indicating that the west is less than the whole factor. The role of local government debt ratio in economic growth is lower than the national average.

【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.5;F124.1
，

本文编号：1848214