我国财政赤字与经常项目余额的实证分析

发布时间：2018-07-08 10:19

本文选题：财政赤字 + 经常项目余额　；参考：《财政部财政科学研究所》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近二十年来,以美国为主的发达国家一直存在财政赤字与经常项目赤字同时存在的“双赤字”现象,但是以中国为代表的新兴发展国家,经常项目呈现顺差并持续攀升。财政赤字与经常项目赤字的并存或呈现相反关系的现象,备受经济学者的关注,许多学者不断尝试从理论或实证方面分析各国财政赤字与经常项目赤字之间的关系。对于财政赤字与经常项目之间的关系,理论方面有着不同的观点。传统的凯恩斯主义者,从国民收入恒等式出发,验证了经常项目与超额储蓄、财政赤字之间的紧密关系,财政赤字能够通过储蓄—投资直接影响到经常项目赤字。国际吸收理论,则是将居民消费、投资和政府支出统称为国内吸收,财政赤字的增加正是通过国内吸收,将影响扩展到经常项目上。蒙代尔—弗莱明模型则是从汇率出发,表明财政赤字政策在不同的汇率制度对于经常项目的影响则不同。而李嘉图等价定理则是认为财政政策是中性的,对于经常项目没有影响。本文在梳理了理论界关于财政赤字与经常项目的主要观点之后,接着梳理出与主要理论观点相对应的传导机制：储蓄-投资传导机制、产出-吸收传导机制、汇率传导机制和中性传导机制。除了理论方面的研究,本文还从不同时期内财政政策的变迁和经常项目的变动、两者之间的实证模型分析我国财政赤字与经常项目之间的关系。针对两者之间的关系,本文一方面对历年的财政政策的变迁和经常项目变动进行分析,另一方面则是通过两者的历史数据进行实证分析。实证分析包括两者静态分析和动态分析。静态分析注重财政赤字与经常项目当期之间的关系,以及两者的趋势性。动态分析,则是仅仅从财政赤字和经常项目余额历史数据的统计特性出发,通过单位根检验、协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解多方面分析两者之间的关系。最后综合静态分析、动态分析的结果,给出相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the past two decades, the developed countries dominated by the United States have always had a "double deficit" phenomenon, which exists at the same time as the current account deficit. However, the emerging developing countries, represented by China, have a surplus of current account and continue to climb. The phenomenon that fiscal deficit and current account deficit coexist or present opposite relationship has attracted the attention of economists. Many scholars have been trying to analyze the relationship between fiscal deficit and current account deficit from theoretical or empirical aspects. There are different views on the relationship between fiscal deficits and current accounts. The traditional Keynesian, starting from the identity of national income, verifies the close relationship between current account and excess savings, fiscal deficit, which can directly affect the current account deficit through savings and investment. The international absorption theory refers to the consumption, investment and government expenditure of residents as domestic absorption. The increase of fiscal deficit is through domestic absorption, which extends the influence to the current account. The Mondal-Fleming model is based on the exchange rate, which shows that the fiscal deficit policy has different effects on the current account under different exchange rate regimes. Ricardo's equivalence theorem is that fiscal policy is neutral and has no effect on current account. After combing the main views of the theoretical circle on fiscal deficit and current account, this paper then sorts out the transmission mechanism corresponding to the main theoretical viewpoints: savings-investment transmission mechanism, output-absorption transmission mechanism, Exchange rate transmission mechanism and neutral transmission mechanism. In addition to the theoretical research, this paper also analyzes the relationship between the fiscal deficit and the current account from the changes of fiscal policy and current account in different periods, and the empirical model between them. In view of the relationship between the two, on the one hand, this paper analyzes the changes of fiscal policy and current account changes over the years, on the other hand, it makes an empirical analysis through the historical data of both. The empirical analysis includes both static analysis and dynamic analysis. Static analysis focuses on the relationship between fiscal deficit and current account, as well as the trend of both. Dynamic analysis is only based on the statistical characteristics of the historical data of fiscal deficit and current account balance. The relationship between them is analyzed through unit root test, cointegration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. Finally, synthesizing the results of static analysis and dynamic analysis, the relevant policy recommendations are given.
【学位授予单位】：财政部财政科学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.4

【参考文献】