中央对省级财政转移支付决定因素计量研究

发布时间：2019-04-02 03:13

【摘要】：厘清中央转移支付总规模和分省转移支付的决定因素,是政府决策者和财政工作者十分关注的重要课题。通过研究转移支付及其决定因素之间的计量关系,可以深化对中央转移支付分配机制及发展规律的认识;测算转移支付总规模和分省规模,有利于安排年度财政预算和中期财政规划,具有理论价值和实际应用价值。研究基于计量经济学方法,提出经济发展规模、中央财政收入、货物进出口额、中央财政收入占全国财政收入的比重是中央转移支付总规模的决定因素的假设,通过计量建模测算了较为精确的计量关系,并验证了上述假设成立。分省转移支付影响因素包括滞后一期的分省人口、人口结构、地方财政自给率,以及视同常量的地域面积、经济地理位置、少数民族因素和边疆因素,计量检验表明,少数民族和边疆因素不是分省转移支付的决定因素。将模型测算数与实际发生数进行比对,二者十分接近,显示模型有较强的解释现实的能力,增强了结论的可靠性。
[Abstract]:Clarifying the total scale of central transfer payment and the determinants of provincial transfer payment is an important issue for government decision-makers and financial workers to pay close attention to. By studying the quantitative relationship between the transfer payment and its determinants, we can deepen the understanding of the central transfer payment distribution mechanism and its development law. The calculation of the total scale and provincial scale of transfer payment is beneficial to the arrangement of the annual budget and the medium-term financial planning, which is of theoretical and practical value. Based on the econometrics method, this paper puts forward the assumption that the scale of economic development, the central fiscal revenue, the import and export of goods, and the proportion of central fiscal revenue to the national revenue are the decisive factors of the total scale of central transfer payments. The accurate measurement relationship is calculated by metrological modeling, and the above hypothesis is proved to be valid. The influencing factors of sub-provincial transfer payment include provincial population, population structure, local financial self-sufficiency rate, geographical area, economic and geographical location, ethnic factors and frontier factors, which are lagging behind the first period of time. Ethnic minorities and border factors are not the determinants of provincial transfer payments. Comparing the model calculation number with the actual occurrence number, the two models are very close to each other, which shows that the model has a strong ability to explain the reality and enhances the reliability of the conclusion.
【作者单位】：宁夏财政厅;
【分类号】：F812.45

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