不确定条件下的最优教育选择——基于期权模型的实证研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 14:34

本文关键词：不确定条件下的最优教育选择——基于期权模型的实证研究　出处：《北京师范大学学报(社会科学版)》2008年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：教育投资不仅关系到个人一生的职业发展,还涉及到就业、稳定、资源分配等一系列社会问题,是各级政府都密切关注的问题。然而,教育投资存在很高风险,即投资收益存在较大的波动性和较宽的分布范围,阻碍个体作出合理教育投资的抉择。由于风险估计的复杂性,教育选择的研究一般都不考虑风险。借用金融的期权理论模型对风险的估算可以很好地评估个人预期收益的不确定性,进而推出个人的最优教育选择。采取工资微分和捆绑期权这两处巧妙的处理,就能使标准的期权公式适应教育投资的特殊性,便于实证检验在不确定条件下的最优教育投资成本。基于英国的面板数据估算结果显示,预测的最优高等教育参加人数与实际人数很接近,说明风险确实对于人们的教育选择有很显著的影响,尤其是对于普通高等学历来说更是如此。而参加职业高等教育的学生会更多考虑非货币因素。此外,对各学历的预测值均高于真实值,说明可能有部分群体由于得不到全面的信息而没有作出最优教育选择。
[Abstract]:Educational investment is not only related to individual career development, but also to a series of social problems such as employment, stability and resource allocation. However, there is a high risk in education investment, that is, there is a large fluctuation and wide distribution range of investment income, which prevents individuals from making rational educational investment decisions. Because of the complexity of risk estimation, the study of educational choice generally does not consider the risk. By using the financial option theory model, the estimation of the risk can be used to evaluate the uncertainty of individual expected income, and then the optimal choice of individual education can be introduced. Taking the two ingenious treatments of wage differentials and bundling options, we can make the standard option formula adapt to the particularity of educational investment, and facilitate the empirical test of the optimal educational investment cost under uncertain conditions. Based on the panel data estimated from UK, the predicted number of participants in the optimal higher education is very close to the actual number, indicating that risk does have a significant impact on people's educational choice, especially for ordinary higher education. Students participating in vocational higher education will consider more non monetary factors. In addition, the predictive value of all academic qualifications is higher than the true value, indicating that some groups may not make the best choice of education because of the lack of comprehensive information.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院;
【基金】：北京师范大学青年教师人文社会科学研究基金项目“人力资本投资风险分析” 国家社会科学基金项目“人力资本投资的风险与防范”(07BJY046)
【分类号】：G40-05
【正文快照】： 一、引言教育选择不仅决定着人一生的职业发展,而且个人的教育选择还将直接关系到社会资源的分配状况。但是,个人在教育选择过程中会受到许多不确定因素的制约,使得个人很难作出最适合自己的教育决策。这些不确定因素包括由于人们对自己的能力认识不足,且不能获得关于学校质

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