基于改进ARIMA模型的北京市教育行业发展态势分析

发布时间：2018-08-04 13:45

【摘要】：北京市作为首都,近年来,在快速发展的同时,“大城市病”问题日益突出。这在北京市教育行业发展中也得到了体现,例如教育拥堵、资源不足、分配不均等。针对北京市教育行业发展存在的问题,《京津冀协同发展规划纲要》(以下简称《纲要》)明确指出,教育作为非首都核心功能,需要疏解。同时,《纲要》也明确指出,疏解北京市教育的非核心功能应主要从以下两点着手:严格控制增量和有序疏解存量。本文通过对未来北京市教育机构增长数量建立预测模型,使政府就未来增量可以定量分析,从而针对控制增量和疏解存量做出更加科学的决策,最终促进北京市教育未来可持续化发展。本文针对上述问题进行了研究,研究过程中所做的主要工作如下:第一,从信息分析角度对北京市教育发展情况相关信息进行搜集、整理和分析,分析北京市教育近年发展现状,进而对其现状原因进行分析,并指出当前发展过程中存在的问题。第二,在信息预测方法中,使用基于改进的ARIMA模型作为本文的预测模型。针对本文使用的模型及其应用现状进行了介绍,接着运用ARIMA模型和神经网络组合模型,预测北京市教育机构数量的变化趋势,并对预测结果进行评价。由于模型可以表达时间序列中的线性和非线性成分,其预测效果比单一模型更好,能更准确的预测出北京市教育机构数量。第三,在模型预测结果基础上,结合北京市教育现状分析,从优化教育资源配置角度出发,为未来北京教育机构数量如何控制和疏解提供政策建议。
[Abstract]:Beijing as the capital, in recent years, in the rapid development of the "big city disease" problem is increasingly prominent. This is also reflected in the development of the education industry in Beijing, such as education congestion, insufficient resources and unequal distribution. In view of the problems existing in the development of education industry in Beijing, the outline of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Cooperative Development Plan (hereinafter referred to as "outline") clearly points out that education, as the core function of non-capital, needs to be solved. At the same time, the outline also points out clearly that the non-core function of education in Beijing should be solved mainly from the following two aspects: strictly control the increment and the stock of orderly unwinding. Through the establishment of a forecast model for the future growth of educational institutions in Beijing, this paper makes the government make a more scientific decision on controlling the increment and unlocking the stock by making quantitative analysis on the future increment. Finally, it will promote the sustainable development of education in Beijing in the future. The main work of this paper is as follows: first, from the perspective of information analysis, we collect, collate and analyze the relevant information on the development of education in Beijing. This paper analyzes the present situation of education development in Beijing in recent years, and then analyzes the reasons for the present situation, and points out the problems existing in the current development process. Secondly, in the information prediction method, the improved ARIMA model is used as the prediction model in this paper. This paper introduces the models used in this paper and their application status, and then uses the ARIMA model and the neural network combination model to predict the change trend of the number of educational institutions in Beijing, and evaluates the prediction results. Because the model can express the linear and nonlinear components in the time series, its prediction effect is better than the single model, and it can more accurately predict the number of educational institutions in Beijing. Thirdly, on the basis of the forecast results of the model and the analysis of the present situation of education in Beijing, from the point of view of optimizing the allocation of educational resources, this paper provides policy suggestions on how to control and solve the number of educational institutions in Beijing in the future.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G527

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