我国民办高等教育投资评价及风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-09-03 19:54

【摘要】：经过30余年的发展，我国民办高等教育取得了举世瞩目的成绩，民办高等教育由我国高等教育的补充形式发展为重要的组成部分。在快速发展的过程中，我国民办高校也出现了招生难、投资效益低下、可持续发展能力不强等不容忽视的问题，一些民办高校甚至出现了关停和倒闭现象。面对高等教育市场不断增大的竞争压力，如何提高我国民办高等教育的投资效益、增强其投资风险的防控能力、实现其可持续发展，成为摆在我国政府、民办高等教育举办者（管理者）和研究者面前亟需解决的一个重要问题。本研究旨在通过对我国民办高等教育投资与风险管理的分析和探讨，进一步丰富与完善我国民办高等教育投资与风险管理理论的应用，为我国民办高等教育投资决策与风险预警提供量化分析技术，为我国民办高等教育投资效益与投资风险管理水平的提高提供理论指导，进而为政府制定相关政策和民办高等教育投资者决策提供参考。本研究以高等教育学、教育经济学、投资学、管理学的理论为基础，采用规范分析与实证分析相结合，定性分析与定量分析相结合，静态分析与动态分析相结合的研究方法，综合应用现代管理科学与系统科学新技术，对民办高等教育投资与风险管理展开了系统研究，主要成果和结论如下：（1）系统地分析了我国民办高等教育发展与投资现状，发掘出我国民办高等教育投资中存在的主要问题。分析结果表明：我国民办高等教育发展经历了“办学地位确立期→办学空间伸缩期→高速发展期→全面调整期”等几个阶段，并呈现出“办学规模不断扩大、办学模式日益丰富、办学层次不断拓展、办学质量不断提高”的发展特征。与国外发达国家相比，我国民办高校尚未建立多元化的融资渠道，办学资金来源渠道单一，办学资金主要依靠学杂费收入；我国政府对民办高校的财政投入远远低于国外发达国家；同时，我国民办高校面临学费上涨空间有限、银行贷款困难、结构性供求矛盾突出、区域发展不平衡等问题。（2）建立了我国民办高等教育投资效益测度模型及投资效益评价体系。本研究在分析民办高等教育成本与收益构成的基础上，以教育内部收益率和项目投资收益率核算方法为基础，基于投资者的视角，建立了两阶段民办高等教育投资效益动态测算模型，，并在该模型的基础上，提出了民办高等教育投资收益区间的确定方法，并具体地测算出投资收益合理回报区间，为民办高等教育投资决策提供了参考依据。该模型以高等教育收益理论和高等教育成本分担理论为指导，以民办高等教育成本、收益核算为依据，综合考虑固定资产投资回收期对投资收益的影响因素，将投资收益率的计算公式分为两类，分别给出了固定资产回收期内与固定资产回收期外的民办高校的投资收益率的测度公式，弥补了传统的投资收益率计算存在的不足，为民办高校投资收益率的计算提供了新方法。并利用该方法计算出我国民办高校在固定资产回收期内的投资收益区间和在固定资产回收期外的投资收益区间，测算结果能够比较客观地反映我国民办高校不同发展阶段投资收益率的动态变化情况，为民办高等教育投资提供了有益的参考。该模型克服了传统的收益率计算未体现收益与成本的时间价值的弊端，使得民办高校投资收益率测度结果更加科学合理，为我国民办高等教育投资收益测算提供了新方法。继而还构建了我国民办高等教育投资收益评估指标体系，并建立了基于矩阵关联分析法的民办高校投资效益动态评估模型，通过实证分析检验了模型的有效性，为进一步全面量化评估我国民办高等教育收益提供了技术支撑。（3）构建了民办高等教育投资风险评估模型与风险预警系统。在投资风险成因分析的基础上，根据民办高校投资风险评估的目标与特点，结合灰色聚类评价的要素，利用灰色三角白化权评价思想，构建了适合民办高校投资风险的评价模型，并通过实证分析检验了该模型的有效性。该模型可以实现对民办高校投资风险进行分类，为我国民办高等教育投资风险评估提供了新方法。另外，设计出我国民办高校投资风险预警系统，包括预警指标体系的构建、警度测度模型的建立、警号识别系统的设计，并根据民办高校投资风险预警的内涵，将功效系数法引入到民办高校投资风险警度测度中，为民办高校投资风险警度度量提供技术支撑，对民办高等教育投资风险预警研究进行了有益的探索。本研究所构建的基于灰色三角白化权的民办高校投资风险评估模型是进行民办高校投资风险评估的有效方法，可以实现对民办高校投资风险的全面评估，而基于功效系数法的民办高校投资风险预警模型是民办高校投资风险预警的有效方法，可以实现对民办高校投资风险进行事前预警，为防范民办高校的投资风险提供帮助。因而，投资风险评估结果可以为投资风险预警提供参考，风险预警是风险评估的延伸，两者互为验证互为补充，为民办高校投资风险分析与风险预警提供了完整的方法体系，也为民办高等教育投资管理和投资风险预警研究提供了多样化的工具。（4）对我国民办高等教育投资环境和投资收益的变化趋势进行了预测，并据此提出了相关政策建议。预测结果表明：“十二五”期间，从宏观经济环境看，我国将为我国民办高等教育的持续、健康发展提供良好的外部经济环境。从投资政策环境看，我国将重点推进民办高等教育的法人制度、办学自主权、税收优惠、财政资助、财务管理、师生权利保障等方面的政策和法规建设，将进一步完善民办高等教育的政策与法规体系。从民办高校生源情况看，虽然面临人口出生率下降因素的影响，但随着高中阶段教育的普及、高等学校毛入学率的逐步提高和招生计划的持续增加，以及国家招生政策对民办高校的倾斜，我国民办高等教育的招生规模与在校生规模还将有适度的增大，“十二五”期间我国民办高校的生源相对充足，仍有较大的发展空间。从民办高等教育行业发展趋势看，民办高等教育发展多元化和依法办学将成为民办高校发展的趋势。从民办高校投资潜力看，我国民办高校投资收益率与“十一五”期间相比将有所提高，我国民办高校将进入规模效益与内涵提升并举阶段，当然民办高校在快速发展过程中，也面临来自公办高校与民办高校以及民办高校内部之间的竞争压力，同时，还普遍存在整体办学水平不高和综合竞争力不强等问题，潜在的生源风险、运营风险、管理风险、政策风险、不确定性风险日趋凸显，由此而导致民办高校发展出现此兴彼衰的局面，且将持续较长一段时间。最后，从提高投资效益与加强投资风险防控的角度，提出了适合我国民办高等教育发展趋势的投资对策，为我国民办高等教育投资与风险管理提供了有益的参考。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of development, private higher education in China has made remarkable achievements. Private higher education has developed from a supplementary form of higher education to an important part of it. Faced with the increasing competition pressure in the higher education market, how to improve the investment efficiency of private higher education, enhance its ability to prevent and control investment risks, and realize its sustainable development have become the sponsors (managers) and researchers of the government, private higher education in China. An important problem before us.
The purpose of this study is to enrich and perfect the application of investment and risk management theory in private higher education by analyzing and discussing the investment and risk management of private higher education in China, to provide quantitative analysis technology for investment decision-making and risk early warning of private higher education in China, and to provide investment benefit and investment of private higher education in China. The improvement of capital risk management level provides theoretical guidance, and then provides a reference for the government to formulate relevant policies and private higher education investors decision-making.
Based on the theories of higher education, educational economics, investment and management science, this study combines normative analysis with empirical analysis, qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, static analysis with dynamic analysis, and applies modern management science and new technology of system science to invest in private higher education. Risk management has been systematically studied. The main results and conclusions are as follows:
(1) This paper systematically analyzes the present situation of the development and investment of private higher education in China, and explores the main problems in the investment of private higher education in China. Compared with developed countries, private colleges and universities in China have not yet established diversified financing channels, the sources of funds are single, and the funds for running schools mainly rely on the income of tuition and miscellaneous fees. At the same time, China's private colleges and universities are facing such problems as limited space for tuition fees, difficulties in bank loans, structural contradictions between supply and demand, and unbalanced regional development.
(2) Established the investment benefit measurement model and investment benefit evaluation system of private higher education in China. Based on the analysis of the cost and benefit composition of private higher education, this study establishes the investment efficiency of two-stage private higher education from the perspective of investors, based on the calculation method of the internal rate of return of education and project investment rate of return. On the basis of this model, this paper puts forward a method to determine the investment income interval of private higher education, and calculates the reasonable return interval of investment income concretely, which provides a reference for the investment decision of private higher education. Based on the cost and income accounting of private higher education and considering the influence factors of fixed assets investment payback period on investment returns, this paper divides the calculation formulas of investment returns into two categories, and gives the measurement formulas of investment returns of private colleges and universities within and outside fixed assets payback period respectively, which makes up for the traditional ones. The shortcomings in the calculation of the return on investment provide a new method for the calculation of the return on investment of non-governmental colleges and universities, and use this method to calculate the return interval of investment of non-governmental colleges and universities in the period of fixed assets recovery and the return interval of investment outside the period of fixed assets recovery, the results of calculation can objectively reflect the results of non-governmental colleges and universities in China. This model overcomes the drawbacks of the traditional calculation of returns which do not reflect the time value of returns and costs, and makes the measurement results of returns on investment in private colleges more scientific and reasonable, thus providing a useful reference for the investment in private higher education in China. Then, the paper constructs the evaluation index system of private higher education investment returns, and establishes a dynamic evaluation model of private higher education investment returns based on matrix correlation analysis. The effectiveness of the model is verified by empirical analysis, which provides a further quantitative evaluation of private higher education returns in China. Technical support.
(3) The investment risk assessment model and risk early warning system of private higher education are constructed. On the basis of the analysis of the causes of investment risk, according to the objectives and characteristics of investment risk assessment of private colleges and universities, combined with the elements of grey clustering evaluation, and using the idea of grey triangle whitening right evaluation, the evaluation model suitable for investment risk of private colleges and universities is constructed. The model can classify the investment risk of private colleges and universities and provide a new method for the investment risk assessment of private colleges and universities in China. According to the connotation of investment risk early warning in private colleges and universities, the efficiency coefficient method is introduced into the investment risk early warning measurement of private colleges and universities, which provides technical support for the investment risk early warning measurement of private colleges and universities, and makes a beneficial exploration on the investment risk early warning research of private colleges and universities. The grey triangle whitening right investment risk assessment model of private colleges and universities is an effective method to evaluate the investment risk of private colleges and universities. It can realize the comprehensive evaluation of the investment risk of private colleges and universities. The investment risk early warning model of private colleges and Universities Based on the efficiency coefficient method is an effective method to warn the investment risk of private colleges and universities. Therefore, the results of investment risk assessment can provide a reference for investment risk early warning, and risk early warning is an extension of risk assessment. The two are complementary to each other, providing a complete set of investment risk analysis and risk early warning for private colleges and universities. The method system also provides diversified tools for investment management and investment risk early warning research of private higher education.
(4) Predicting the investment environment and the change trend of investment income of private higher education in China, and putting forward relevant policy suggestions. The results show that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China will provide a good external economic environment for the sustained and healthy development of private higher education in China from the macroeconomic environment. In view of the policy environment, China will focus on promoting the legal person system, autonomy in running schools, preferential taxation, financial support, financial management, protection of the rights of teachers and students and other policies and regulations to further improve the system of policies and regulations for private higher education. However, with the popularization of high school education, the gradual increase of the gross enrollment rate, the continual increase of the enrollment plan and the inclination of the national enrollment policy towards private colleges and universities, the enrollment scale and the enrollment scale of private higher education in China will also increase moderately during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. From the perspective of the development trend of private higher education industry, the diversification of private higher education development and running schools according to law will become the development trend of private colleges and universities. Colleges and universities will enter the stage of both scale efficiency and connotation improvement. Of course, private colleges and universities are also facing competition pressure from public universities and private colleges and private colleges in the process of rapid development. At the same time, there are still problems such as low overall level of running schools and weak comprehensive competitiveness, potential source of students risk, operating style and so on. Risk, management risk, policy risk and uncertainty risk are becoming increasingly prominent, which leads to the rise and fall of private colleges and universities, and will continue for a long time. Finally, from the perspective of improving investment efficiency and strengthening the prevention and control of investment risk, this paper puts forward investment countermeasures suitable for the development trend of private higher education in China, which will be beneficial to our country. It provides a useful reference for higher education investment and risk management.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：G648.7

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