人口变动与义务教育发展规划——基于“单独二孩”政策实施后义务教育适龄人口规模的预测

发布时间：2018-07-16 14:19

【摘要】：根据第六次人口普查数据,对"单独二孩"政策实施后20年中国义务教育阶段适龄人口规模和结构进行预测。研究结果显示,在"单独二孩"政策实施后出生的孩子成长为适龄人口以前,义务教育学龄人口规模将持续下降,这是化解教师结构性缺编、教育投入不足等已有问题,应对适龄人口波动的"机会窗口"。在人口政策影响效应显现后,义务教育学龄人口迅速增加,尤其在兼受进城务工人员子女影响的城镇地区,这对义务教育发展带来一定压力;但是,人口扩张期不会持续太长,适龄人口规模很快会重新进入持续下降期。在人口变动与义务教育发展关系的新格局下,义务教育发展规划不能因短期变动而时刻调整,要充分考虑学龄人口长期变动趋势所带来的影响,做出全局规划,注重内涵式、可持续发展。
[Abstract]:According to the data of the sixth census, the size and structure of the school-age population in the compulsory education stage of China 20 years after the implementation of the policy of "single two-child" are predicted. The results show that the size of compulsory school age population will continue to decline before the children born after the implementation of the policy of "single two-child" grow into the school-age population. This is to solve the existing problems such as structural shortage of teachers, insufficient investment in education, and so on. The "window of opportunity" to cope with fluctuations in the population of appropriate age. After the effect of population policy became apparent, the school-age population of compulsory education increased rapidly, especially in urban areas affected by the children of migrant workers in cities, which brought some pressure to the development of compulsory education; however, the period of population expansion would not last too long. The size of the school-age population will soon return to a period of sustained decline. Under the new situation of the relationship between population change and compulsory education development, compulsory education development planning can not be adjusted at all times because of short-term changes. It is necessary to give full consideration to the influence brought by the long-term changing trend of school-age population, make overall planning and pay attention to the connotation type. Sustainable development
【作者单位】：北京师范大学教育学部教育经济研究所/首都教育经济研究院;北京师范大学教育学部教育经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金(教育学)重点课题“跨越中等收入陷阱:教育的作用研究”(课题批准号:AFA110002)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：G522.3

【参考文献】