商品房客户购房需求预测应用研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 13:43

本文关键词：商品房客户购房需求预测应用研究　出处：《广西大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着房地产市场宏微观环境的变化,房地产企业发展环境变得更为残酷和严峻,其营销实践难度加大,这使得房地产企业迫切需要加强对客户购房需求预测研究,提高精准营销能力。此外,客户为购买到满意商品房需要付出大量时间精力。再者,当前有关支持商品房客户需求预测和客户为购买商品房需求而采取哪些行为方面的研究理论比较欠缺。因此,有必要对商品房客户购房需求预测进行理论应用研究。本文结合客户购买决策模型和商品房客户购房实际情况,构建商品房客户购买决策一般模型,并将购房决策过程划分为购房需求唤起阶段、购房选择评价阶段、正式购房阶段;分析购房需求行为特性和影响客户购房需求产生的客户属性因素,通过建立购房需求行为进行阶段一般模型对购房需求行为进行分析。之后,结合选取原则和商品房市场实际情况,构建客户购房需求预测指标体系,并将这些指标分为两类：一、年龄、婚姻家庭状况、家庭经济收入水平、职业与教育情况、现有住房情况等商品房客户属性；二、电话咨询购房信息、网络搜寻楼盘房屋信息、实地考察楼盘房屋(含实际参观样板房)、参与房展会、房交会等类似活动等客户购房需求行为特征。接着,建立商品房客户购房需求预测模型,确定模型指标评分值和利用AHP法确定模型指标权重,客户购房需求预测综合评价指数的评价标准。本文在应用研究中,选取观测样本客户和预测应用样本,对观测样本客户属性和购房需求行为记录量化,计算客户购房需求预测综合评价指数,并进行统计分析,得到客户是否属于重点营销客户组别的判别函数,并认为商品房客户购房需求预测模型具有较高准确性和应用价值。之后,利用模型对预测样本进行预测应用研究分析,并为提高房地产企业精准营销能力提供一些建议,以供其参考。
[Abstract]:With the change of macro and micro environment of real estate market, the development environment of real estate enterprises becomes more cruel and severe, and its marketing practice becomes more difficult. This makes the real estate enterprises urgently need to strengthen the research on the demand forecast of the customer purchase, improve the precision marketing ability. In addition, the customers need to pay a lot of time and energy to buy the satisfied commercial housing. The current research theory about supporting the demand forecast of the commercial housing customers and the behavior that the customers take to purchase the commercial housing demand is relatively lacking. It is necessary to apply the theory to forecast the demand of commercial housing customers. In this paper, combined with the customer purchase decision-making model and the actual situation of the purchase of commercial housing customers, the general model of purchase decision-making is constructed, and the purchase decision-making process is divided into the stage of house purchase demand arousal. The stage of choosing and evaluating the purchase of the house, and the stage of the formal purchase of the house; This paper analyzes the characteristics of housing demand behavior and the factors affecting the customer demand for housing, and then analyzes the behavior of housing demand through the establishment of a general model of housing demand behavior. Combining with the selection principle and the actual situation of the commercial housing market, this paper constructs the forecast index system of the customer's housing demand, and divides these indicators into two categories: first, age, marriage and family status, family income level. Occupation and education, existing housing and other commercial housing customer attributes; Second, the telephone consultation purchase information, the network searches for the housing information, the field inspection real estate house (including the actual visit model house, participate in the house exhibition, the house fair and so on similar activities and so on customer purchase demand behavior characteristic.). In this paper, the author establishes the forecast model of the commercial housing customer's demand for housing, determines the scoring value of the model index, and uses AHP method to determine the weight of the model index and the evaluation standard of the comprehensive evaluation index of the customer's house purchase demand forecast. Select the observation sample customer and forecast application sample, quantify the observation sample customer attribute and the purchase demand behavior record, calculate the comprehensive evaluation index of the customer purchase demand forecast, and carry on the statistical analysis. Get whether the customer belongs to the key marketing customer group discriminant function, and think that the commercial housing customer demand prediction model has a high accuracy and application value. The model is used to study and analyze the forecast samples, and some suggestions for improving the precision marketing ability of real estate enterprises are provided for their reference.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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