我国房地产业上市公司财务困境预警研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 10:30

本文关键词：我国房地产业上市公司财务困境预警研究　出处：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在全球经济一体化的背景下，随着企业国际化和全球化进程的不断加快，各大企业都处在竞争日益激烈的风口浪尖上，一旦经营不善就容易引发资金链短缺，，企业资不抵债，最终被市场的竞争机制所淘汰。所以，企业要生存发展就必须加强风险管理，而风险管理的重点就是企业的财务风险。房地产业是我国的新兴产业，也是最近几年国家重点关注和调控的对象，是人们最近关注的热点话题之一，长周期、高投资、高风险、高收益是房地产业的固有特点，房地产的高收益性决定了它的高风险性，尤其是发生财务风险的可能性越来越大。本文选取近年来备受国家和社会公众关注的行业——房地产业为研究对象，主要实证研究发生财务困境的上市公司与未发生财务困境的上市公司之间存在一些显著性差异的指标间的关系，以此来建立关于我国房地产业上市公司财务困境预警的模型，希望后来的房地产企业可以借鉴该预警模型，及时预知企业财务状况的变化情况。文章大致的分析框架是这样的：首先系统的介绍了研究房地产企业的背景以及研究的价值，其次对国内外有关财务困境的文献进行综述研究。第三，在对财务困境及房地产行业的概念进行界定了的基础上，依据证监会公布的行业标准，从122家房地产上市公司中选出数据齐全、资料完整且主营业务为房地产开发与经营的上市公司，共70家，结合房地产公司的实际情况，按照ST与非ST公司1:4的比例配比（其中10年被ST的9家，11年被ST的5家）。在以往相关研究的基础上，结合房地产业高风险、高负债的特殊性，从偿债、营运、盈利、成长以及现金流等5个方面选取了40个指标，建立了预警指标体系，在完成K-S检验、非参数检验以及相关性分析后，运用二元Logit回归分析模型建立房地产业财务困境预警的的模型，并取得较好的预测效果。研究结果显示：房地产上市公司t-1年、t-2年以及t-3年发生财务困境的预测精确度分别为94.3%、90.0%以及85.7%，对正常公司的错判率也随着时间向ST的临近越来越低。可见在临近ST那一年，预测精度较好，这也比较符合实际。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global economic integration, with the internationalization and globalization, large enterprises in the increasingly fierce competition in the teeth of the storm, once mismanagement can easily lead to the shortage of capital chain, corporate insolvency, eventually be eliminated by the market competition mechanism. Therefore, we must strengthen to the survival and development of enterprises risk management, risk management is the focus of the financial risk of the enterprise. The real estate industry is a new industry in China, and in recent years the focus of attention and regulation, is one of the hot topic recently, people concern long cycle, high investment, high risk, high yield is the inherent characteristics of the real estate industry high income, real estate determines its high risk, especially the possibility of financial risk is more and more big.
This paper selects the recent national concern of the public and the industry, the real estate industry as the research object, the relationship between some significant differences among indexes between the main empirical research on financial distress of listed companies and financial distress of listed companies, in order to establish a financial distress early warning of China's real estate industry listed companies the model, hope that the real estate enterprises can use the early warning model, changes and predict the financial situation of enterprises.
The general analysis framework is this: first introduces the system of real estate enterprises in the background and research value, followed by domestic and foreign research on financial distress literature. Third, based on the definition of the concept of financial distress and the real estate industry, according to the Commission published industry standards and from the 122 listed real estate company in which complete data, data integrity and the main business of real estate development and management of listed companies, a total of 70, according to the actual situation of the Real Estate Company, according to the ST and non ST companies 1:4 ratio (of which 10 years were ST 9, 11 years was ST 5). On the basis of previous related research, combined with the high risk of the real estate industry, special, high debt from debt, operating profit, 5 growth and cash flow, choosing 40 index, set up the early warning index system in the end. After the K-S test, nonparametric test and correlation analysis, the two yuan Logit regression analysis model is applied to establish the financial distress prediction model of the real estate industry, and a good prediction effect is achieved.
The research results show that: the real estate listed companies in T-1 years, T-2 years and T-3 years of financial distress prediction accuracy were 94.3%, 90% and 85.7%, the normal company misjudged rate with time to ST near more and more low. Visible near the ST in that year, the forecast accuracy is good, it also compared with the the actual.

【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.233.4;F275

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