中国影子银行的规模及风险研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 19:08

本文关键词：中国影子银行的规模及风险研究　出处：《西南民族大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年金融危机以来，影子银行因其与金融危机的内在联系，越发受到媒体、学界及政府机构的关注。中国的影子银行作为金融市场的重要组成部分，近几年呈快速扩张趋势，影子银行的发展状况直接关系到我国金融市场及相关实体经济的运行。影子银行的概念最早在美国提出。以美国影子银行的定义及范围为借鉴，比较了我国关于影子银行界定的两种代表性观点，发现这两种观点都存在缺陷，要么对影子银行的界定过于宽泛，要么对影子银行的界定过于保守。界定我国的影子银行应该重点关注金融行为、信用中介及监管力度等三个方面。我国的影子银行是指传统银行体系及业务之外的，能够进行信用中介服务，可能引发流动性风险和监管套利风险的类银行行为的金融工具、相关业务及机构。以我国影子银行的界定为依据，我国影子银行的范围可从银行、非银行金融机构、非金融机构及民间金融四个角度进行划分。银行渠道的影子银行主要包括银行理财产品。非银行金融机构的影子银行包括信托公司的集合资金信托产品，证券公司的资产管理计划，汽车金融公司及消费金融公司的相关业务等。非金融机构的影子银行主要包括融资租赁公司，融资性担保公司，典当行及小额贷款公司等。民间金融渠道的影子银行包括私募基金和民间借贷及互联网金融等。我国影子银行的规模究竟有多大？到目前为止没有一个一致的统计数据，主要原因是统计口径的不一致。以前述对我国影子银行范围的划分为依据，综合考虑我国影子银行各组成部分的规模、重要性等因素，将我国影子银行的规模测算分为四个口径：最窄口径（Ⅰ）的测算标准只包括银行理财业务与信托公司的集合资金信托产品两类；较窄口径（Ⅱ）包括最窄口径的影子银行，汽车金融公司、消费金融公司及证券公司的相关业务；较宽口径（Ⅲ）包括较窄口径影子银行，，融资租赁公司、融资性担保公司、典当行、小额贷款公司等非金融机构及相关业务；最宽口径（Ⅳ）包括较宽口径的影子银行与民间金融。对2007年至2013年上半年我国影子银行规模进行统计，发现我国最窄口径的影子银行规模自2009年末以来有加速扩张的趋势。而截至到2013年上半年，我国最宽口径的影子银行规模达到27.848万亿元，超过2013年上半年的国内生产总值，是2013年上半年社会融资规模的2.74倍。影子银行的规模扩张，一方面增加了自身风险滋生的可能性。另一方面，加深了商业银行所面临的风险。对商业银行的影响表现在既加速了商业银行负债方的脱媒，增加商业银行的流动性风险，提高商业银行的经营成本；又可能将影子银行的经营风险转嫁给银行，增加商业银行的坏账损失。此外，影子银行也可能对实体经济运行产生一定的风险。例如，影子银行的高息率在很大程度上增加了中小企业的经营成本和经营风险。再如，部分影子银行为追求高收益而注资房地产行业，无形中扩大了房地产市场泡沫，埋下了泡沫破灭的隐患。最后，影子银行的存在对宏观调控政策可能造成一定的风险。影子银行对中国人民银行将M2作为货币政策中间目标的做法提出了挑战，容易对宏观调控政策特别是货币政策造成干扰，影响货币、信贷等宏观变量的既有轨迹，削弱传统货币政策操作的有效性。因此，适度加强我国影子银行的监管是必要的。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 financial crisis, the shadow banking because of its internal relations with the financial crisis, more and more by the media, academia and government agencies concerned. Chinese shadow banking as an important part of the financial market in recent years, a rapid expansion trend, the development status of the shadow banking is directly related to China's financial markets and the real economy the operation.
The concept of the shadow banking the most forward early in the United States. By definition and scope of the shadow banking for reference, compares our country about two representative viewpoints of the definition of shadow banking, found that these two viewpoints are flawed, or the definition of shadow banking is too wide, or the definition of shadow banking definition is too conservative. Shadow banking in China should focus on the three aspects of financial behavior, credit intermediary and supervision. China's shadow banking refers to the outside of the traditional banking system and business, can the credit intermediary services, bank behavior may lead to liquidity risk and regulatory arbitrage risk financial instruments, business and related institutions.
To define China's shadow banking is on the basis of the scope of China's shadow banks from the banks, non bank financial institutions, four aspects of non financial institutions and private finance division. The shadow banking banking channels mainly include financial products. Non bank financial institutions including shadow banking trust capital trust products securities companies, asset management plan, auto finance companies and Consumer Finance Companies related business. The shadow banking financial institutions including financial leasing companies, financing Guarantee Corporation, pawn shops and small loan companies. The shadow banking private financial channels including private equity funds and private lending and Internet banking.
The size of the shadow bank how? So far there has not been a consistent statistical data, the main reason is inconsistent. The statistics on China's shadow banking scope as the basis, considering the different part of China's shadow banking scale, important factors, measure the size of China's shadow banking is divided into four most narrow caliber caliber: (I) the standard estimates include only the banking business and the trust capital trust products in two categories; narrow caliber (II) including shadow banking the most narrow caliber, auto finance companies, Consumer Finance Companies and related business of the securities company; wide aperture (III) including narrow aperture shadow banking, financial leasing companies, financing Guarantee Corporation, pawn, small loan companies and other non bank financial institutions and related business; the wide caliber (IV) including wide caliber Silver Shadow In line with the folk finance. On 2007 to the first half of 2013 China's shadow banking scale statistics, found that China's most narrow shadow banking scale since the end of 2009 to accelerate the trend of expansion. As of the first half of 2013, China's most wide caliber of the shadow banking scale reached 27 trillion and 848 billion yuan, more than the first half of 2013 GDP is the first half of 2013, the scale of social financing 2.74 times.
The size of the shadow banking expansion, on the one hand, increasing the possibility of the risk of their own breeding. On the other hand, deepen the risk faced by commercial banks. The impact on commercial banks in not only accelerated the liabilities of commercial bank disintermediation, increase the liquidity risk of commercial banks, commercial banks increased operating costs; and the shadow banking risks to banks, loss of bad debts of commercial banks. In addition, the shadow banking may also have a certain risk to the real economy. For example, the shadow banking high interest rate increase of small and medium-sized enterprises operating costs and operating risk to a great extent. Moreover, part of the shadow banking for the pursuit of high returns injection of the real estate industry, expanding the real estate market bubble, the bubble burst buried the hidden trouble. Finally, there is the shadow banking to the macro-control policy may cause a certain The shadow banking risk. The people's Bank of China will challenge M2 as intermediate target of monetary policy, the policy of macro-control is particularly easy monetary policy interference, the impact of monetary, credit and other macro variables both track, weaken the traditional monetary policy is effective. Therefore, appropriate strengthening China's shadow banking regulation is necessary.

【学位授予单位】：西南民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.3

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